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AbstractNew biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead we use low‐cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple laboratory‐made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market‐ready hybrids for 2020–2030. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020–2030 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7–89.7 Mt year−1 biomass, with potential for 1.2–1.3 EJ year−1 energy and 36.3–40.3 Mt year−1 carbon capture, with seeded Miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model the results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at the time of energy sourcing issues, seed‐propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety.

AbstractMiscanthus, a C4 perennial rhizomatous grass from Asia is a leading candidate for the supply of sustainable biomass needed to grow the bioeconomy. European Miscanthus breeding programmes have recently produced a new range of seeded hybrids with the objective of increasing scalability to large acreages limited by current clonal propagation. For the EU‐GRACE project, new replicated field trials were established in seven locations across Europe in 2018 with eight intraspecific M. sinensis hybrids (sin × sin) and six M. sacchariflorus × M. sinensis (sac × sin) from Dutch and UK breeding programmes, respectively, with clonal Miscanthus × giganteus. The planting density of the sin × sin was double that of sac × sin (30,000 & 15,000 plants ha−1), creating commercially relevant upscaling comparisons between systems. Over the first 3 years, the establishment depended on location and hybrid. The mature sin × sin hybrids formed tight tufts of shoots up to 2.5 m tall which flower and senesce earlier than the taller sac × sin hybrids. Following the third growing season, the highest yields were recorded in Northern Italy at a low altitude (average 13.7 (max 21) Mg DM ha−1) and the lowest yielding was on the industrially damaged marginal land site in Northern France (average 7.0 (max 10) Mg DM ha−1). Moisture contents at spring harvest were lowest in Croatia (21.7%) and highest in Wales, UK (41.6%). Overall, lower moisture contents at harvest, which are highly desirable for transport, storage and for most end‐use applications, were found in sin × sin hybrids than sac × sin (30% and 40%, respectively). Yield depended on climate interactions with the hybrid and their associated planting systems. The sin × sin hybrids appeared better adapted to northern Europe and sac × sin hybrids to southern Europe. Longer‐term yield observations over crop lifespans will be needed to explore the biological (yield persistence) and economic costs and benefits of the different hybrid systems.