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AbstractDengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks, indicating that dengue tends to become established in areas after introduction. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.Author summaryDengue is a mosquito-borne disease that has expanded rapidly around the world due to increased urbanisation, global mobility and climate change. In Brazil, geographical barriers to dengue transmission exist, beyond which certain areas including South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest are relatively protected from outbreaks. However, we found that the previous barrier in South Brazil has shifted futher south as a result of increased temperature suitability. The previously identified barrier protecting the western Amazon no longer exists. This is particularly concerning as we found dengue outbreaks tend to become established in areas after introduction. Highly influential cities with many transport links had increased odds of an outbreak. However, the most influencial cities had lower odds of an outbreak than cities connected regionally. This study highlights the importance of monitoring the expansion of dengue outbreaks and designing disease prevention strategies for areas at risk of future outbreaks as well as areas in the established dengue transmission zone.

This paper explores to what extent moving towards the 30% GHG emission reductions by 2020 with respect to 1990 in the EU can be considered a transformative target. To do so, we first define the concept of transformative targets from a complex systems perspective and show a novel approach and original results using an extended application of the GEM-E3 model. Traditional macroeconomic models cannot easily handle key synergetic system effects derived from green growth and sustainability policies, and thus require additional features. We analyse the role of semi-endogenous growth driven by learning-by-doing and low-carbon investment expectations following a long-term transformative trajectory.

Iron tie rods have been used for centuries both as auxiliary and as reinforcing elements for vaulted structures. Their presence in heritage buildings is widespread in some regions such as Italy, and in many cases they have become historical elements with their own value as testimony of past constructive solutions. The appreciation and study of these elements is an active field of research. Their conservation implies searching for a better understanding of the structural behaviour and the interactions between ties and masonry, which still is not fully understood. Through time, architectural manuals and treatises have evolved in their recommendations on the best way to apply them, mainly about the position and constructive solutions. This research is based on a case study that shows many different typologies due to consecutive reinforcing interventions. The structural performance of the different cases is studied through a simplified scaled model executed following Heyman’s structural masonry theories and the correspondent limit analysis. Applying the reinforcements identified in the case study and treatises, the model has been subject to load tests, taking measurements of collapse load, impost displacement and formation of collapse mechanisms. Thus, it is studied directly in the model how every solution provides a different structural enhancement. Going further, the combination of tie-rods with other reinforcing methods has been analysed. Besides, the results are compared to a parallel limit analysis, in order to discuss some of the assumed simplifications taken in this type of analysis.

The effects of climate dynamics on urban areas involve the aggravation of existing conditions and the potential for emergence of new hazards or risk factors. Floods are recognized as a leading source of consequences to society, including disruption of critical functions in urban areas, and to the environment. Consideration of the interplay between services providers ensuring urban functions is essential to deal with climate dynamics and associated risks. Assessment of resilience to multiple hazards requires integrated and multi-sectoral approaches embracing each strategic urban sector and interactions between them. A common limitation resides in the limited data and tools available for undertaking these complex assessments. The paper proposes a methodology to undertake the spatial characterization of the flood related hazards and exposure of both essential functions and services providers in urban areas, in the context of limitations in data and in ready-to-use tools. Results support the resilience assessment of these hazards, taking into account interdependencies and cascading effects. The approach is applied to Lisbon city as the study case. Results are promising in demonstrating the potential of combining data and knowledge from different sources with dual modelling approaches, allowing us to obtain trends on the magnitude of effects of climate scenarios and to assess potential benefits of adaptation strategies. Quantification of the effects is reached, but results need to be assessed together with the underlying levels of uncertainty. The methodology can facilitate dialogue among stakeholders and between different decision levels.

Bio-based and biodegradable plastics (BBPs) are innovative materials, wholly or partially produced from biomass, with the potential to enhance the circulation of resources in the biological cycle of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s butterfly diagram. Although BBPs are generally considered more environmental-friendly than conventional plastics, robust scientific evidence is still missing. The lack of tools and metrics to assess the circularity and sustainability of the BBPs industry poses relevant challenges for its upscaling and contribution to climate neutrality goals in Europe. It calls for adopting system and life cycle thinking, guided by multi-level and multi-dimensional examinations, which led researchers to build a comprehensive picture of trends, gaps and future orientations that may boost a sustainable circular bioeconomy in the sector. The value- chain based and multi-faceted SWOT analysis that emerged from the intersection of system and corporate data reveals the need to establish a combined circular bioeconomy strategy where incentives to integrated local supply chain, dedicated EPR scheme, eco-design guidelines, revised EoL standards, new clear labelling schemes and harmonised sustainability criteria should be prioritized and conjointly pursued to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable circular bioeconomy of the BBPs value chain. European Journal of Social Impact and Circular Economy, V. 4 N. 2 (2023)

Transport is an important source of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Although the applications of information and communication technologies (ICTs) for transport, also known as intelligent transport systems, are seen as having great potential to help reduce emissions from road transport, their exact impact on CO2 emissions are uncertain for decision makers from government to industry. This uncertainty hinders the deployment of such applications. Therefore there is a need for a common evaluation approach to assess the CO2 impact of ICT measures in a systemic and realistic way. In this study, a methodology framework to evaluate the impact of ICT measures on CO2 emissions is explained. The methodology was developed within the European Union FP7 project Amitran. In particular, this study focuses on the outline and the framework architecture of the methodology as well as the required interfaces between the required models. The use of the methodology is demonstrated by applying it to a use case of dynamic traffic light systems. Finally, the efforts made to validate the methodology and make it accessible to users are explained.