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Cette thèse est basée sur des simulations numériques régionales et aborde, d’un point de vue énergétique, la variabilité à Méso (O(10-100)km) et Sous-mésoéchelle (O(0.1-10)km) dans la région du Courant des Aiguilles.(i) La variabilité de sous-mésoéchelle à la transition entre les deux branches du Courant des Aiguilles (28◦E-26◦E) est dominée, en l’absence de méandres de mésoéchelle, par des tourbillons cycloniques frontaux formant un ‘vortex street’. La tension ambiante frontogénétique intensifie le cisaillement frontal qui déclenche l’instabilité barotrope menant à la génération de tourbillons de sous-mésoéchelle.(ii) Un budget modal d’Energie Cinétique des Tourbillons est développé pour caractériser les transferts d’énergie entre les différentes structures verticales. Les interactions canalisées par la topographie (3 processus) résultent globalement en une perte d’énergie pour les tourbillons de mésoéchelle plus grande que les processus de dissipation (friction au fond et vent) et une cascade verticale inverse (interactions triadiques) renforce les tourbillons de mésoéchelle dans les zones au large.(iii) Notre budget modal permet de caractériser la région du Courant des Aiguilles comme une source nette d’énergie pour les tourbillons de mésoéchelle en contradiction avec celui estimé à partir de données d’altimétrie. Cette différence vient des données d’altimétrie ne tenant pas compte de la contribution principale de la dynamique aux sources et puits d’énergie des tourbillons de mésoéchelle (partie linéaire de la dynamique agéostrophique du mode barotrope et du 1er mode barocline). This dissertation is based on regional numerical simulations and addresses, from an energetic perspective, the Meso (O(10-100)km) and Submesoscale (O(0.1- 10)km) variability in the Agulhas Current region.(i) Submesoscale variability at the transition between the two Agulhas Current branches (28◦E-26◦E) is dominated, in the absence of mesoscale meanders, by cyclonic frontal eddies forming a ’vortex street’. The frontogenetic background strain intensifies the frontal shear which triggers the barotropic instability leading to submesoscale eddies generation.(ii) A modal Eddy Kinetic Energy budget is derived to characterize the energy transfers between the different vertical structures. Interactions canalized by topography (3 processes) globally result in a larger energy loss for mesoscale eddies than dissipation processes (bottom friction and wind) and an inverse vertical cascade (triadic interactions) reinforces mesoscale eddies in offshore areas.(iii) Our modal budget allows to characterize the Agulhas Current region as a net energy source for mesoscale eddies in contradiction with one inferred from altimetry data. The discrepancies come from altimetry data not accounting for the main contribution of the dynamics to mesoscale eddies energy sources and sinks (ageostrophic linear part of the dynamics of the barotropic and 1st baroclinic modes).

• Key message Insurance might be an efficient tool to strengthen adaptation of forest management to climate change. A theoretical model under uncertainty is proposed to highlight the effect, on adaptation decisions, of considering adaptation efforts in forest insurance contracts. Results show that insurance is relevant to increase adaptation efforts under some realistic conditions on forest owner’s uncertainty and risk preferences, and on the observability or not of adaptation efforts. • Context One of the challenges of forest adaptation to climate change is to encourage private forest owners to implement adaptation strategies. • Aims We suggest the analysis of forest insurance contracts against natural hazards as a vector to promote the implementation of adaptation efforts by private forest owners. • Methods We propose a theoretical model of insurance economics under risk and under uncertainty. • Results Our results indicate that when climate change makes the probability of the occurrence of the natural event uncertain, then it may be relevant to include adaptation efforts in the insurance contract, leading to an increase in the adaptation efforts of risk-averse and uncertainty-averse forest owners. In addition, we show that the relevance of insurance as a vector to promote adaptation efforts is greater when the forest owner’s effort is unobservable by the insurer as compared to a situation of perfectly observable effort. • Conclusion Under some realistic assumptions, the forest insurance contract seems to be a relevant tool to encourage forest owners to adapt to climate change.

FAERE Working Paper, 2019.23 ; While environmental values are spreading among societies, theyhardly lead to effective political actions. This may be due to an overestimation of the sharing of those values among people, or to a lack ofpolitical power of environmentalists vis-à-vis materialist citizens. Wepropose a theoretical model to investigate these two channels, based ona setup a la Grossman and Helpman (1994), in which lobby is a strategy available to social groups, in order to influence the government onenvironmental taxes. Because societies have being historically markedby materialist habits, citizens sharing those habits face lower costswhen getting organized. By considering endogenous lobby formation ala Mitra (1999), we show that, in order for environmental and materialist lobbies to coexist, the society must be mixed enough. Based on adynamic framework a la Besley and Persson (2019), we investigate howsocial values change over time. Whenever lobbying by materialists prevails, a unique social equilibrium exists, featuring a stable hegemonyby materialist values. If environmentalists get organized too, a secondsocial equilibrium emerges, that is locally stable and more favorableto them. However, the threshold might be very high, above which thecultural transition effectively takes off. By calibrating the model, westudy counter-acting forces allowing to improve the odds of the environmental transition, such as cultural mutations, social-signaling, andlowering organizational costs. Finally, we provide policy implications. ; Alors que les valeurs environnementales se répandent dans les sociétés, elles ne débouchent guère sur des actions politiques efficaces. Cela peut être dû à une surestimation du partage de ces valeurs entre les gens, ou à un manque de pouvoir politique des écologistes vis-à-vis des citoyens matérialistes. Nous proposons un modèle théorique pour investiguer ces deux canaux, basé sur un cadre à la Grossman et Helpman (1994), dans lequel le lobbying est une stratégie à la disposition des ...

This deliverable includes the methodology in EnergyPROSPECTS for an in-depth study of energy citizenship. It features the criteria used for selecting the cases for indepth study, the list of cases selected for in-depth study as well as key research foci and empirical research questions.

The rapidly changing climate presents unprecedented challenges, especially in permafrost regions, where its thawing directly affects houses, mines, roads, pipelines, airport runways, and rail tracks. Monitoring the dynamics of ground ice in permafrost landscapes is essential for assessing geohazards and adapting infrastructure to changing conditions. This abstract presents a new initiative utilizing cosmic neutrons metrology for permafrost studies, specifically focusing on ground-ice content monitoring. Traditional methods for assessing ground-ice content in permafrost regions involve labor-intensive surveys and analysis of geomorphological features. However, these approaches are often limited in spatial coverage and may not capture the full extent of ground-ice distribution. In response to these challenges, we propose leveraging cosmic neutrons as a non-invasive and scalable method for assessing ground-ice content. Cosmic neutrons naturally penetrate the Earth's surface and interact with hydrogen atoms in the soil, including those bound in water molecules. By measuring the cosmic neutron albedo, which is the flux of epithermal neutrons that are partially thermalized in the ground, we can infer the presence and distribution of ground ice. This approach builds upon established techniques used for soil moisture monitoring, adapting them for permafrost studies. In that regard, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of cosmic neutron transport and interaction with modeled ground to investigate the feasibility of using cosmic neutrons for ground-ice content monitoring. Our simulations considered various ground compositions and ice concentrations to assess the sensitivity of cosmic neutron measurements to ground-ice content. The results of our simulations provide promising proof-of-concept for the proposed method, demonstrating its potential for accurately estimating ground-ice content in permafrost landscapes. Additionally, we are developing at DOSEO (CEA – Saclay, France) thermal over fast neutron reference fields that could be used to test, characterize, and calibrate detectors specifically for the presented application. The proposed method offers several advantages. Firstly, it provides measurements on a metric scale (~10m wide on ~1m depth), effectively balancing local detail with regional coverage, thus making it well-suited for mapping geohazards on a kilometric scale. Additionally, cosmic neutrons albedo measurements is non-destructive and non-invasive and can be applied across diverse permafrost landscapes, offering valuable insights into ground-ice dynamics. Moreover, mapping ground-ice content is feasible through the flexible deployment of neutron detectors. These detectors can either be moved around the study area to gather spatially distributed measurements or installed as fixed monitoring stations, enabling continuous observation of ground-ice dynamics across different seasons and over time. Integration of data from cosmic neutrons albedo measurements into Geographic Information System (GIS) applications enhances the ability to map geohazards and predict future changes in permafrost landscape stability. By combining information on ground-ice content with elevation, drainage patterns, periglacial features, and infrastructure, a better understanding of the interactions between climate change and geohazards in permafrost regions is achievable.In conclusion, cosmic neutrons metrology offers a promising approach for monitoring ground-ice content in permafrost landscapes. By advancing our understanding of permafrost dynamics, this initiative contributes to the broader goals of cryosphere monitoring and sustainable development.

International audience Solar resource and forecasting in very short spatial and timescales (0–100 m, 0–30 min) is a challenging task that cannot be accurately achieved by satellite products or numerical weather predictions due to technical and methodological restrictions. For this reason, sky images from ground-based cameras are widely used during the last decade to deal with the high spatial and temporal variability of clouds and provide the needed inputs for numerical models for the current and forecasted (in short-term) solar irradiance. In this chapter, the available types of all-sky cameras/imagers are shortly presented. The chapter is focused on the state-of-the-art methodologies used to derive parameters needed for the estimations of solar resource and forecasting by a calibrated all-sky camera: cloud coverage, type, height, and velocity as well as aerosol optical properties. The application of these methodologies at Plataforma Solar de Almeria, in the frame of project: “Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies” (DNICast, http://www.dnicast-project.net/) is discussed. Finally, the chapter finishes with some propositions for future work in the recent, but quickly, developed research area.

In the context of Abstract geometrical computation, it has been proved that black hole model (and SAD computers) can be implemented. To be more physic-like, it would be interesting that the construction is reversible and preserves some energy. There is already a (energy) conservative and reversible two-counter automaton simulation. In the present paper, based on reversible and conservative stacks, reversible Turing machines are simulated. Then a shrinking construction that preserves these properties is presented. All together, a black hole model implementation that is reversible and conservative (both the shrinking structure and the universal Turing machine) is provided.

Les preuves pour l'existence de la matière noire (MN), sous forme d'une particule inconnue qui rempli les halos galactiques, sont issues d'observations astrophysiques et cosmologiques: son effet gravitationnel est visible dans les rotations des galaxies, des amas de galaxies et dans la formation des grandes structures de l'univers. Une manifestation non-gravitationnelle de sa présence n'a pas encore été découverte. L'une des techniques les plus prometteuse est la détection indirecte de la MN, consistant à identifier des excès dans les flux de rayons cosmiques pouvant provenir de l'annihilation ou la désintégration de la MN dans le halo de la Voie Lactée. Les efforts expérimentaux actuels se focalisent principalement sur une gamme d'énergie de l'ordre du GeV au TeV, où un signal de WIMP (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles) est attendu. L'analyse des mesures récentes et inédites des rayons cosmiques chargés (antiprotons, électrons et positrons) et leurs émissions secondaires et les améliorations des modèles astrophysiques sont présentées.Les données de PAMELA sur les antiprotons contraignent l'annihilation et la désintégration de la MN de manière similaire (et même légèrement meilleurs) que les contraintes les plus fortes venant des rayons gamma, même dans le cas où les énergies cinétiques inférieures à 10 GeV sont écartées. En choisissant des paramètres astrophysiques différents (modèles de propagation et profils de MN), les contraintes peuvent changer d'un à deux ordres de grandeur. Pour exploiter la totalité de la capacité des antiprotons à contraindre la MN, des effets précédemment négligés sont incorporés et se révèlent être importants dans l'analyse des données inédites de AMS-02 : ajouter les pertes d'énergie, la diffusion dans l'espace des moments et la modulation solaire peut modifier les contraintes, même à de hautes masses. Une mauvaise interprétation des données peut survenir si ces effets ne sont pas pris en compte. Avec les flux de protons et d'hélium exposé par AMS-02, le fond astrophysique et ces incertitudes du ratio antiprotons sur protons sont réévalués et comparés aux données inédites de AMS-02. Aucune indication pour un excès n'est trouvé. Une préférence pour un halo confinant plus large et une dépendance en énergie du coefficient de diffusion plus plate apparaissent. De nouvelles contraintes sur l'annihilation et la désintégration de la MN sont ainsi dérivés.Les émissions secondaires des électrons et des positrons peuvent aussi contraindre l'annihilation et la désintégration de la MN dans le halo galactique : le signal radio dû à la radiation synchrotron des électrons et positrons dans le champs magnétique galactique, les rayons gamma des processus de bremsstrahlung avec le gas galactique et de Compton Inverse avec le champs radiatif interstellaire sont considérés. Différentes configurations de champs magnétique galactique et de modèles de propagation et des cartes de gas et de champs radiatif interstellaire améliorés sont utilisées pour obtenir des outils permettant le calculs des émissions synchrotrons et bremsstrahlung venant de MN de type WIMP. Tous les résultats numériques sont incorporés dans la dernière version du Poor Particle Physicist Coookbook for DM Indirect Detection (PPPC4DMID).Une interprétation d'un possible excès dans les données de rayons gamma de Fermi-LAT au centre galactique comme étant dû à l'annihilation de MN en canaux hadronique et leptonique est analysée. Dans une approche de messagers multiples, le calcul des émissions secondaires est amélioré et se révèle être important pour la détermination du spectre pour le canal leptonique. Ensuite, les limites provenant des antiprotons sur l'annihilation en canal hadronique contraignent sévèrement l'interprétation de cet excès comme étant dû à la MN, dans le cas de paramètres de propagation et de modulation solaire standards. Avec un choix plus conservatif de ces paramètres elles s'assouplissent considérablement. Overwhelming evidence for the existence of Dark Matter (DM), in the form of an unknownparticle filling the galactic halos, originates from many observations in astrophysics and cosmology: its gravitational effects are apparent on galactic rotations, in galaxy clusters and in shaping the large scale structure of the Universe. On the other hand, a non-gravitational manifestation of its presence is yet to be unveiled. One of the most promising techniques is the one of indirect detection, aimed at identifying excesses in cosmic ray fluxes which could possibly be produced by DM annihilations or decays in the Milky Way halo. The current experimental efforts mainly focus in the GeV to TeV energy range, which is also where signals from WIMPs (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles) are expected. Focussing on charged cosmic rays, in particular antiprotons, electrons and positrons, as well as their secondary emissions, an analysis of current and forseen cosmic ray measurements and improvements on astrophysical models are presented. Antiproton data from PAMELA imposes contraints on annihilating and decaying DM which are similar to (or even slightly stronger than) the most stringent bounds from gamma ray experiments, even when kinetic energies below 10 GeV are discarded. However, choosing different sets of astrophysical parameters, in the form of propagation models and halo profiles, allows the contraints to span over one or two orders of magnitude. In order to exploit fully the power of antiprotons to constrain or discover DM, effects which were previously perceived as subleading turn out to be relevant especially for the analysis of the newly released AMS-02 data. In fact, including energy losses, diffusive reaccelleration and solar modulation can somewhat modify the current bounds, even at large DM masses. A wrong interpretation of the data may arise if they are not taken into account. Finally, using the updated proton and helium fluxes just released by the AMS-02 experiment, the astrophysical antiproton to proton ratio and its uncertainties are reevaluated and compared to the preliminarly reported AMS-02 measurements. No unambiguous evidence for a significant excess with respect to expectations is found. Yet, some preference for thicker halos and a flatter energy dependence of the diffusion coefficient starts to emerge. New stringed constraints on DM annihilation and decay are derived. Secondary emissions from electrons and positrons can also be used to constrain DM annihilation or decay in the galactic halo. The radio signal due to synchrotron radiation of electrons and positrons on the galactic magnetic field, gamma rays from bremsstrahlung processes on the galactic gas densities and from Inverse Compton scattering processes on the interstellar radiation field are considered. With several magnetic field configurations, propagation scenarios and improved gas density maps and interstellar radiation field, state-of-art tools allowing the computaion of synchrotron and bremssttrahlung radiation for any WIMP DM model are provided. All numerical results for DM are incorporated in the release of the Poor Particle Physicist Coookbook for DM Indirect Detection (PPPC4DMID). Finally, the possible GeV gamma-ray excess identified in the Fermi-LAT data from the Galactic Center in terms of DM annihilation, either in hadronic or leptonic channels is studied. In order to test this tantalizing interprestation, a multi-messenger approach is used: first, the computation of secondary emisison from DM with respect to previous works confirms it to be relevant for determining the DM spectrum in leptonic channels. Second, limits from antiprotons severely constrain the DM interpretation of the excess in the hadronic channel, for standard assumptions on the Galactic propagation parameters and solar modulation. However, they considerably relax if more conservative choices are adopted.

Globally, agriculture is the mainstay of most well planned economies because it contributes significantly to the national GDP, creates employment, provides food for human sustenance, raw materials for industry and earns foreign exchange. Nigeria is blessed with tremendous agricultural resources spanning several agro-ecological zones. Nigeria’s total land area is 92.3 million ha with cultivable area estimated at 84 million ha, which is 91% of the total area. Forests account for 13% of the land area. Most of the country’s land area is fertile and conducive for growing a wide range of crops and raising livestock. Nigeria’s 853 kilometer coastline along the Gulf of Guinea is a gateway to a vast ocean which together with ample fresh water resources provided by the Niger and Benue river systems afford tremendous potential for fisheries and aquaculture/mariculture. Nigeria took advantage of these resources to establish itself as an agricultural powerhouse in the 1960s. According to statistics from the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), by 1961 the country accounted for 42% of the global trade in groundnut oil, 27% of the world’s palm oil industry and 18% of global trade in cocoa. The country was also self-sufficient in food production before the discovery of oil in the 1960s.