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The Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework serves as a valuable framework to explore and understand social and ecological interactions, and pathways in water governance. Yet, it lacks a robust understanding of change. We argue an analytical and methodological approach to engaging global changes in SES is critical to strengthening the scope and relevance of the SES framework. Relying on SES and resilience thinking, we propose an institutional and cognitive model of change that institutions and natural resources systems co-evolve to provide a dynamic understanding of SES that stands on three causal mechanisms: institutional complexity trap, rigidity trap, and learning processes. We illustrate how Data Cube technology could overcome current limitations and offer reliable avenues to test hypothesis about the dynamics of social-ecological systems and water security by offering to combine spatial and time data with no major technical requirements for users.

A major achievement in research supported by the Kluane Lake Research Station was the recovery, in 2001 – 02, of a suite of cores from the icefields of the central St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, by teams of researchers from Canada, the United States, and Japan. This project led to the development of parallel, long (103 – 104 year) ice-core records of climate and atmospheric change over an altitudinal range of more than 2 km, from the Eclipse Icefield (3017 m) to the ice-covered plateau of Mt. Logan (5340 m). These efforts built on earlier work recovering single ice cores in this region. Comparison of these records has allowed for variations in climate and atmospheric composition to be linked with changes in the vertical structure and dynamics of the North Pacific atmosphere, providing a unique perspective on these changes over the Holocene. Owing to their privileged location, cores from the St. Elias Icefields also contain a remarkably detailed record of aerosols from various sources around or across the North Pacific. In this paper we review major scientific findings from the study of St. Elias Mountain ice cores, focusing on five main themes: (1) The record of stable water isotopes (δ18O, δD), which has unique characteristics that differ from those of Greenland, other Arctic ice cores, and even among sites in the St. Elias; (2) the snow accumulation history; (3) the record of pollen, biomass burning aerosol, and desert dust deposition; (4) the record of long-range air pollutant deposition (sulphate and lead); and (5) the record of paleo-volcanism. Our discussion draws on studies published since 2000, but based on older ice cores from the St. Elias Mountains obtained in 1980 and 1996.

Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.

Abstract To mitigate the negative effects of climate change, it is necessary to conserve carbon stocks in forests. Typhoons fell many standing trees and generate a substantial amount of coarse woody debris (CWD). In boreal forests, CWD contributes to maintaining carbon stocks for a long time after a disturbance because the decomposition rate of CWD is relatively low. We know that salvage logging after a disturbance tremendously decreases the forest carbon stock over the short term after logging but know little about its long-term effects. We targeted a catastrophic windthrow caused by a super typhoon in 1954 in boreal forests in northern Japan and estimated the long-term effects of salvage logging after the windthrow on the above- and belowground carbon stocks by comparing old-growth forests with low damage from the super typhoon in 1954 or any subsequent typhoons (OG), forests damaged by the typhoon with remaining CWD (i.e., windthrow, WT), and forests damaged by the typhoon followed by salvage logging (WT + SL). The CWD carbon stock of decay class 5 (i.e., the most decayed CWD) in WT was significantly larger than that in OG and WT + SL, suggesting that the CWD in decay class 5 in WT had been generated by the typhoon 64 years ago, and the negative effect of salvage logging on the carbon stock still remains apparent in the CWD carbon stock of decay class 5. The carbon stock of the organic (O) layer in WT was larger than that in WT + SL, probably because of three factors: (1) the slower decomposition rate of fallen leaves and twigs of conifers than broadleaves, as conifer litter is abundant in WT; (2) greater carbon transition from the CWD to the O layer in WT; and (3) the occurrence of a lower decomposition rate in the O layer in WT. However, the total carbon stock in WT + SL has almost recovered to the level of that in WT within the last 64 years. The carbon stocks of broadleaves that grew rapidly after the disturbance and the newly accumulated dead trees generated throughout the stand developmental process might contribute to the recovery of carbon stock in WT + SL. These results indicate that salvage logging affects the allocation of carbon in the forest even after 64 years after a catastrophic windthrow, although there was no large difference in total carbon stock.

The conceptualization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework represented a major leap in scenario development in the context of global environmental change and sustainability, providing significant advances from the previous scenario frameworks-especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. It is highly likely that the SSP concept, along with its scenario narratives and their respective results, including land-use change projections, will play a substantial role in the forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report by the IPCC. Here, we offer some insights that could make the SSPs' projected future changes in global land use more comprehensive and also help improve the interpretability of such projections. For example, instead of focusing on the quantity of each land-use class at various time points which results only in a net change when change is detected between time points, we recommend that the projected gross gains and gross losses in each land-use class across all scenarios should also be considered. Overall, the insights presented could also help pave the way for stronger collaboration between the SSP-climate science community and the land system science community; such collaboration is much needed in addressing the challenges of global environmental change towards a climate-resilient sustainable development pathway.

AbstractUnder Kyoto Protocol Regime, no obligation is imposed on decreasing domestic Green House Gas (GHG) emission in the field of agriculture in Japan. Clean Development Mechanism(CDM), however, could make Japanese GHG reduction technology and capital be transferred to Asian countries, CER (Certified Emission Reduction) could be transferred to Japan and then farmers in Asian countries could get profit which fluctuate on the GHG prices, mainly influenced by global market..GHG emissions (CO2-equivalent) from poultry and swine industry in the ASEAN 8 countries (Viet Nam, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos) increased by around 8% from 12.76 million tons/year to 13.82 million tons/year during 1997-2002. Around 10% of GHG from poultry and swine farming in the 8 countries was emitted from enteric fermentation and the residual 90% was emitted from manure management during 1997-2002. Reduction scenario on GHG from swine farm was made by conversion of liquid/slurry system into drylot one, in the adoption of manure management technology into broiler farm with the thermal drying of broiler manure. GHG reduction from poultry and swine industry in the 8 countries could be supposed to be around 10% with the adoption of this reduction scenario. GHG from poultry and swine industry in this region converted in accordance with Dec 08 contracts at ECX. Financial size that developing countries could expect as economic benefit depends on the project size of Clean Developing Mechanism (CDM) to each farming system in this region. CDM depends on the fluctuation of GHG price mainly on the benchmark in Europe.