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Abstract There have been numerous methods for learning and predicting time series ranging from the traditional time-series analyses to recent approaches using neural networks. A central issue common to all of them is the determination of model structure. Both mean prediction error and An Information Criterion (AIC) are useful in model selection; the model with the smallest mean prediction error or AIC is selected from among a set of models as the best one. In this way they give a solution to the problem of model selection. Due to huge search space, however, the mean prediction error or AIC alone is not powerful enough to find the best model structure from among all the candidates. In the present paper the authors propose to use both a structural learning with forgetting and the mean prediction error or AIC to find a model with better generalization ability. Jordan networks and buffer networks, popular in the modeling of time series, are examined in this paper. The structural learning with forgetting and backpropagation (BP) learning are applied to compare the learning and prediction performance of these two types of models. Simulation results demonstrate that the structural learning with forgetting has better generalization ability than BP learning both in Jordan networks and buffer networks.

Chinese long flame coal named Naomaohu was pyrolyzed at 600 °C under hydrogen pressures of 0.1–3.0 MPa. The resultant chars were gasified at 900 °C under carbon dioxide to illustrate the correlatio...

Abstract Radial measures of efficiency estimated using linear programming (LP) methods can be biased since slack in the constraints defining the technology suggests that at least one input can be reduced, or one output can be expanded, even though a firm is deemed to be “technically efficient.” In this paper, we propose a directional slacks-based measure of technical inefficiency to account for the potential of slack in technological constraints. When no such slacks exist, directional slacks-based inefficiency collapses to the directional technology distance function. Our proposed measure helps to generalize some of the existing slacks-based measures of inefficiency. We examine the financial services provided by Japanese cooperative Shinkin banks, and estimate their inefficiency during the period 2002–2005. This inefficiency declined slightly during the period. We thus propose that slack is an important source of inefficiency which is often not captured by the directional technology distance function.

Abstract In this study, a flat-parallel-plate active magnetic regenerator made of gadolinium is investigated. The coupling of a one-dimensional thermal model with a two-dimensional magnetic model is presented. The thermal model takes into consideration the magnetocaloric effect as a source term and the energy conservation between a solid and a fluid. The magnetic model considers the space distribution of the internal magnetic field strength, and thus it includes the demagnetization effect. Measurements on an experimental magnetic refrigeration test device are performed using distilled water as the working fluid. At cyclic steady states, the temperatures of the fluid on both sides of the regenerator are calculated numerically and compared with the measurement results. The inability to provide a constant internal magnetic field during the heat transfer process with a permanent magnet is demonstrated. A reasonable agreement between simulations and experiments confirms the validity of the proposed model.

The microdosimetric kinetic (MK) model underestimates the cell-survival fractions for high linear energy transfer (LET) and high dose irradiations. To address the issue, some researchers previously extended the MK model to the stochastic microdosimetric kinetic (SMK) model. In the SMK model, the radiation induced cell-survival fractions were estimated from the specific energies z d and z n absorbed by a microscopic subnuclear structure domain and a cell nucleus, respectively. By taking the stochastic nature of z n as well as that of z d into account, the SMK model could reproduce the measured cell-survival fractions for radiations with wide LET and dose ranges. However, treatment planning based on the SMK model was unrealistic in clinical practice due to its long computation time and huge memory space required for the computation. In this study, we modified the SMK model to shorten the computation time and to reduce the memory space required for the computation. By using the dose-averaged cell-nucleus specific energy per event [Formula: see text] in the SMK formalism, the stochastic nature of z n was reflected onto the estimated cell-survival fractions. The accuracy of the modified SMK model was examined through the comparison between the estimated and the measured survival fractions of human salivary gland tumor cells and V79 cells. We then implemented the modified SMK model into the in-house treatment planning software for scanned charged-particle therapy to validate its applicability in clinical practice. As examples, treatment plans of helium-, carbon-, and neon-ion beams were made for an orbital tumor case. The modified SMK model could reproduce the measured cell-survival fractions more accurately compared to the MK model especially for high-LET and high-dose irradiations. In summary, the modified SMK model offers the accuracy and simplicity required in treatment planning of scanned charged-particle therapy for wide LET and dose ranges.

Abstract It is demonstrated that the fuel deposit has a significant influence on the NOx and particular matter (PM) emissions, especially with the consideration of the more and more strict emission regulations issued by the governments, which results in that the near-nozzle spray has been received the increased attention, recently. In this study, the near-nozzle spray characteristics at the initial and end stages were investigated by a high-resolution camera with a laser as the light source. At the initial stage, microscopic behaviors of the near-nozzle spray were observed at upstream, midstream and downstream, respectively. Moreover, the injection frequency was changed to check the effect on the near-nozzle spray morphology. Next, the micro spray length, width and angle were obtained from the processed images. While, at the end stage, the near-nozzle spray evolutions were observed and characterized at 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 and 0.1 ms before the end of injection (BEOI), the end of injection (EOI), 0.05, 0.1, 0.15 and 0.2 ms after the end of injection (AEOI), respectively. Furthermore, the droplet area, spray area without droplets, droplet number and averaged diameter were calculated. Results show that three structures of the near-nozzle spray at the initial stage can be classified as mushroom, steeple and cylinder shapes. And the injection frequency has an influence on their formations owing to the residual fuel and sucked air AEOI. Moreover, although more droplets can be identified at the end stage with time, it does not indicate the better atomization. On the contrary, these droplets AEOI are responsible for the injector deposit in the real engine.

Abstract A three dimensional numerical model of the northwest (NW) Sabalan geothermal system was developed on the basis of the designed conceptual model from available field data. A numerical model of the reservoir was expressed with a grid system of a rectangular prism of 12 km × 8 km with 4.6 km height, giving a total area of 96 km2. The model has 14 horizontal layers ranging in thickness between 100 m to 1000 m extending from a maximum of 3600 to −1000 m a.s.l. Fifteen rock types were used in the model to assign different horizontal permeabilities from 5.0 × 10−18 to 4.0 × 10−13 m2 based on the conceptual model. Natural state modeling of the reservoir was performed, and the results indicated good agreements with measured temperature and pressure in wells. Numerical simulations were conducted for predicting reservoir performances by allocating production and reinjection wells at specified locations. Three different exploitation scenarios were examined for sustainability of reservoir for the next 30 years. Effects of reinjection location and required number of makeup wells to maintain the specified fluid production were evaluated. The results showed that reinjecting at Site B, immediate adjacent to production zone, is most effective for pressure maintenance of the system. On the base of existing data and assumptions the reservoir can sustain producing fluid equivalent to 50 MWe of electricity for more than 30 years. The reservoir can produce the maximum amount of fluids equivalent to 90–100 MWe for only 5 years, but the production capacity decreases to 50 MWe after 20 years of operation because of pressure and enthalpy drop. The reservoir can sustain 50 MWe over 100 years that can be defined as a sustainable production level of the field.