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Abstract Natural gas vehicles offer the benefits of reducing oil use, CO2 emissions and air pollutants. Promoting the use of natural gas vehicles is considered as one of the most important strategies towards sustainable transportation. China made remarkable progress in promoting natural gas vehicles over recent years, and its 4.6 million natural gas vehicles in 2014 represented the world׳s largest natural gas vehicle fleet. In this paper, the development of natural gas vehicles in China is reviewed based on a triple-perspective (Fuel-Vehicle-Infrastructure) technical–economical framework. The review indicates that (a) pricing of vehicle-use Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is essential in determining natural gas vehicle development. A pricing principle similar to the fixed CNG/gasoline price ratio (0.75:1) should be applied to LNG/diesel price ratio; (b) for CNG passenger vehicles, the modified CNG vehicles, with ¥3000–5000 additional cost, is more attractive to consumers than originally manufactured CNG vehicles, with about ¥10,000 additional cost. Vehicle retrofit should be permitted by the government with the precondition that retrofit standards are strictly enforced; (c) for CNG/LNG transit buses, the deployment is strongly affected by local government׳s preference. In regions with sufficient natural gas supply, the government should prioritize the deployment of CNG/LNG transit buses rather than other technologies; (d) for LNG commercial vehicles, with ¥60,000–80,000 higher cost than their counterpart diesel vehicles, financial incentive is critical for their development. China׳s current vehicle subsidy scheme should be extended to cover LNG commercial vehicles; (e) regarding refueling infrastructures, interference with urban land-use planning and long-time administrative approval are the major barriers. Local governments should launch dedicated plans and strategies to support the further deployment of CNG/LNG refueling infrastructures.

Abstract Natural gas vehicles offer the benefits of reducing oil use, CO2 emissions and air pollutants. Promoting the use of natural gas vehicles is considered as one of the most important strategies towards sustainable transportation. China made remarkable progress in promoting natural gas vehicles over recent years, and its 4.6 million natural gas vehicles in 2014 represented the world׳s largest natural gas vehicle fleet. In this paper, the development of natural gas vehicles in China is reviewed based on a triple-perspective (Fuel-Vehicle-Infrastructure) technical–economical framework. The review indicates that (a) pricing of vehicle-use Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is essential in determining natural gas vehicle development. A pricing principle similar to the fixed CNG/gasoline price ratio (0.75:1) should be applied to LNG/diesel price ratio; (b) for CNG passenger vehicles, the modified CNG vehicles, with ¥3000–5000 additional cost, is more attractive to consumers than originally manufactured CNG vehicles, with about ¥10,000 additional cost. Vehicle retrofit should be permitted by the government with the precondition that retrofit standards are strictly enforced; (c) for CNG/LNG transit buses, the deployment is strongly affected by local government׳s preference. In regions with sufficient natural gas supply, the government should prioritize the deployment of CNG/LNG transit buses rather than other technologies; (d) for LNG commercial vehicles, with ¥60,000–80,000 higher cost than their counterpart diesel vehicles, financial incentive is critical for their development. China׳s current vehicle subsidy scheme should be extended to cover LNG commercial vehicles; (e) regarding refueling infrastructures, interference with urban land-use planning and long-time administrative approval are the major barriers. Local governments should launch dedicated plans and strategies to support the further deployment of CNG/LNG refueling infrastructures.

Abstract Rapid economic growth and accelerating urbanization in the past three decades have accelerated the exhaustion of China’s mineral resources. China is the world’s largest consumer and importer of nickel resources; therefore, a growing domestic demand will increase China’s import dependence and in turn make it potentially vulnerable to supply shortages. One hundred years from 1950 to 2050 were examined for China’s nickel utilization. Identified domestic nickel resources can only sustain China’s industries until 2017, but nickel will reach peak utilization around the year of 2020–2022. Given the 5% annual increase in applications and the growing importation of minerals in China, the carrying duration of nickel resources until 2020 will require a nickel-recycling rate of more than 90%. To sustain China’s nickel utilization, future strategies should foster three solutions: maintaining a high level of imports, adjusting the landscape of nickel applications, and shifting from virgin mining of geological minerals to urban mining of anthropogenic resources.

Abstract Rapid economic growth and accelerating urbanization in the past three decades have accelerated the exhaustion of China’s mineral resources. China is the world’s largest consumer and importer of nickel resources; therefore, a growing domestic demand will increase China’s import dependence and in turn make it potentially vulnerable to supply shortages. One hundred years from 1950 to 2050 were examined for China’s nickel utilization. Identified domestic nickel resources can only sustain China’s industries until 2017, but nickel will reach peak utilization around the year of 2020–2022. Given the 5% annual increase in applications and the growing importation of minerals in China, the carrying duration of nickel resources until 2020 will require a nickel-recycling rate of more than 90%. To sustain China’s nickel utilization, future strategies should foster three solutions: maintaining a high level of imports, adjusting the landscape of nickel applications, and shifting from virgin mining of geological minerals to urban mining of anthropogenic resources.

A precise energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) path in industrial sector contains two aspects: applying effective ECER measures and focusing on processes with significant ECER potential. However, most studies have investigated the ECER effects of an individual measure or only evaluated industrial-level ECER potential. Therefore, the objective of this study is to find a precise ECER path in China's iron and steel industry through quantitative analysis methods. First, this article adopts scenario analysis to simulate situations where different ECER measures are adopted and designs calculation methods to quantitatively evaluate the ECER effects in each scenario in 2020 and 2025. Second, through analysis of the application of ECER measures to certain processes, we calculate the ECER potential of different individual processes in the iron and steel industry. In addition, the conservation supply curve method and the quadrant method are used to measure the level of advanced technology application. The results show that: (1) for four types of ECER measures, the limitation of production output measure is most effective, contributing to 6.98% and 12.50% decreases in total industrial energy consumption and pollutant emissions in 2020 and 2025; moreover, the contribution of the adjustment of scale structure measure is comparatively low. (2) The sintering and ironmaking processes have strong ECER potential in 2020, while the steel making process also has high ECER potential in 2025. (3) 21 technologies are divided into 4 quadrants based on energy, popularity, and economic performance. In addition, we provide some suggestions for future ECER policies. In sum, this article provides an in-depth example of determining a precise ECER path in an important industry.

A precise energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) path in industrial sector contains two aspects: applying effective ECER measures and focusing on processes with significant ECER potential. However, most studies have investigated the ECER effects of an individual measure or only evaluated industrial-level ECER potential. Therefore, the objective of this study is to find a precise ECER path in China's iron and steel industry through quantitative analysis methods. First, this article adopts scenario analysis to simulate situations where different ECER measures are adopted and designs calculation methods to quantitatively evaluate the ECER effects in each scenario in 2020 and 2025. Second, through analysis of the application of ECER measures to certain processes, we calculate the ECER potential of different individual processes in the iron and steel industry. In addition, the conservation supply curve method and the quadrant method are used to measure the level of advanced technology application. The results show that: (1) for four types of ECER measures, the limitation of production output measure is most effective, contributing to 6.98% and 12.50% decreases in total industrial energy consumption and pollutant emissions in 2020 and 2025; moreover, the contribution of the adjustment of scale structure measure is comparatively low. (2) The sintering and ironmaking processes have strong ECER potential in 2020, while the steel making process also has high ECER potential in 2025. (3) 21 technologies are divided into 4 quadrants based on energy, popularity, and economic performance. In addition, we provide some suggestions for future ECER policies. In sum, this article provides an in-depth example of determining a precise ECER path in an important industry.

Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts1-5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO2 emissions6-13. Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable4,18.

Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts1-5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO2 emissions6-13. Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable4,18.