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Abstract Rapid economic growth and accelerating urbanization in the past three decades have accelerated the exhaustion of China’s mineral resources. China is the world’s largest consumer and importer of nickel resources; therefore, a growing domestic demand will increase China’s import dependence and in turn make it potentially vulnerable to supply shortages. One hundred years from 1950 to 2050 were examined for China’s nickel utilization. Identified domestic nickel resources can only sustain China’s industries until 2017, but nickel will reach peak utilization around the year of 2020–2022. Given the 5% annual increase in applications and the growing importation of minerals in China, the carrying duration of nickel resources until 2020 will require a nickel-recycling rate of more than 90%. To sustain China’s nickel utilization, future strategies should foster three solutions: maintaining a high level of imports, adjusting the landscape of nickel applications, and shifting from virgin mining of geological minerals to urban mining of anthropogenic resources.

Abstract Rapid economic growth and accelerating urbanization in the past three decades have accelerated the exhaustion of China’s mineral resources. China is the world’s largest consumer and importer of nickel resources; therefore, a growing domestic demand will increase China’s import dependence and in turn make it potentially vulnerable to supply shortages. One hundred years from 1950 to 2050 were examined for China’s nickel utilization. Identified domestic nickel resources can only sustain China’s industries until 2017, but nickel will reach peak utilization around the year of 2020–2022. Given the 5% annual increase in applications and the growing importation of minerals in China, the carrying duration of nickel resources until 2020 will require a nickel-recycling rate of more than 90%. To sustain China’s nickel utilization, future strategies should foster three solutions: maintaining a high level of imports, adjusting the landscape of nickel applications, and shifting from virgin mining of geological minerals to urban mining of anthropogenic resources.

Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts1-5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO2 emissions6-13. Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable4,18.

Net anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) must approach zero by mid-century (2050) in order to stabilize the global mean temperature at the level targeted by international efforts1-5. Yet continued expansion of fossil-fuel-burning energy infrastructure implies already 'committed' future CO2 emissions6-13. Here we use detailed datasets of existing fossil-fuel energy infrastructure in 2018 to estimate regional and sectoral patterns of committed CO2 emissions, the sensitivity of such emissions to assumed operating lifetimes and schedules, and the economic value of the associated infrastructure. We estimate that, if operated as historically, existing infrastructure will cumulatively emit about 658 gigatonnes of CO2 (with a range of 226 to 1,479 gigatonnes CO2, depending on the lifetimes and utilization rates assumed). More than half of these emissions are predicted to come from the electricity sector; infrastructure in China, the USA and the 28 member states of the European Union represents approximately 41 per cent, 9 per cent and 7 per cent of the total, respectively. If built, proposed power plants (planned, permitted or under construction) would emit roughly an extra 188 (range 37-427) gigatonnes CO2. Committed emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure (about 846 gigatonnes CO2) thus represent more than the entire carbon budget that remains if mean warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) with a probability of 66 to 50 per cent (420-580 gigatonnes CO2)5, and perhaps two-thirds of the remaining carbon budget if mean warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C (1,170-1,500 gigatonnes CO2)5. The remaining carbon budget estimates are varied and nuanced14,15, and depend on the climate target and the availability of large-scale negative emissions16. Nevertheless, our estimates suggest that little or no new CO2-emitting infrastructure can be commissioned, and that existing infrastructure may need to be retired early (or be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technology) in order to meet the Paris Agreement climate goals17. Given the asset value per tonne of committed emissions, we suggest that the most cost-effective premature infrastructure retirements will be in the electricity and industry sectors, if non-emitting alternatives are available and affordable4,18.

ABSTRACTWith massive urbanization and infrastructure investments occurring in China, understanding GHG emissions from infrastructure use in small and large Chinese cities with different administrative levels is important for building future low-carbon cities. This paper identifies diverse data sources to assess GHG emission from community-wide infrastructure footprints (CIF) in four Chinese cities of varying population (1 to 20 million people) and administrative levels: Yixing, Qinhuangdao, Xiamen and Beijing. CIF addresses seven infrastructure sectors providing energy (fuels/coal), electricity, water supply and wastewater treatment, transportation, municipal waste management, construction materials, and food to support urban activities. Industrial energy use dominates the infrastructure GHG CIF in all four cities, ranging from 76% of total CIF in Yixing to 30% in Beijing, followed by residential energy use (6–13%), transportation (4–12%), commercial energy use (2–25%), food (6–11%), cement use (3–8%) and...

ABSTRACTWith massive urbanization and infrastructure investments occurring in China, understanding GHG emissions from infrastructure use in small and large Chinese cities with different administrative levels is important for building future low-carbon cities. This paper identifies diverse data sources to assess GHG emission from community-wide infrastructure footprints (CIF) in four Chinese cities of varying population (1 to 20 million people) and administrative levels: Yixing, Qinhuangdao, Xiamen and Beijing. CIF addresses seven infrastructure sectors providing energy (fuels/coal), electricity, water supply and wastewater treatment, transportation, municipal waste management, construction materials, and food to support urban activities. Industrial energy use dominates the infrastructure GHG CIF in all four cities, ranging from 76% of total CIF in Yixing to 30% in Beijing, followed by residential energy use (6–13%), transportation (4–12%), commercial energy use (2–25%), food (6–11%), cement use (3–8%) and...

Cities, the core of the global climate change mitigation and strategic low-carbon development, are shelters to more than half of the world population and responsible for three quarters of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG). This special volume (SV) provides a platform that promotes multi- and inter- disciplinary analyses and discussions on the climate change mitigation for cities. All papers are divided into four themes, including GHG emission inventory and accounting, climate change and urban sectors, climate change and sustainable development, and strategies and mitigation action plans. First, this SV provides methods for constructing emission inventory from both production and consumption perspectives. These methods are useful to improve the comprehensiveness and accuracy of carbon accounting for international cities. Second, the climate change affects urban sectors from various aspects; simultaneously, GHG emissions caused by activities in urban sectors affect the climate system. This SV focuses on mitigation policies and assessment of energy, transport, construction, and service sectors. Third, climate change mitigation of cities is closely connected to urban sustainable development. This SV explores the relationships between climate change mitigation with urbanization, ecosystems, air pollution, and extreme events. Fourth, climate change mitigation policies can be divided into two categories: quantity-based mechanism (e.g., carbon emission trading) and price-based mechanism (e.g., carbon tax). This SV provides experiences of local climate change mitigation all over the world and proposes the city-to-city cooperation on climate change mitigation.