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This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 °C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.

Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of each Member State of the European Union (EU), and the EU in aggregate, in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as sectoral activity levels and composition, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that while the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy system. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.

Resilience is receiving increasing scientific attention, albeit its notion is still in progress and not univocal, especially when it comes to specific sectors such as energy. Energy and resilience policy is detected as a dominant strategy to achieve international development objectives throughout long-term sustainability and wellbeing goals. Energy resilience also crosses major energy policy issues – namely energy vulnerability, security, poverty, and justice. Making use of the Web Of Science 2018 release, this work aims at contributing to a clarification of the concept of energy resilience, proposing a taxonomy. The bibliometric outputs show a sharp increase in scientific publications on the issue. The bibliometric analysis suggests a taxonomy of energy resilience based on 7 approaches or strategies. The results suggest an evolution of the conceptual contributions, that enlarge resilience early use, merely applied to technical and hard sciences. Resilience is today used in different disciplines, including social sciences and sustainability studies, as part of a holistic approach centered on sustainable development.

Abstract In modern developed economies, one of the primary objectives is to manage the transition from polluting to cleaner technologies as efficiently as possible. By now, in the current empirical literature, one can identify technological spillovers from environmental innovations as a major driver of this process. Specific energy policy aspects connected with industry behaviour have yet to be explored. The aim of this paper is to investigate energy efficiency via environmental innovation and the resulting degree of resilience and adaptation of both developed and developing countries. The work applies the non-parametric DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) framework and Tobit analysis. For this scope, it is built a panel dataset made of some 5000 observations based on energy policy and sustainable development variables for 136 OECD and non-OECD countries. The results show that knowledge spillovers from environmental innovations reduce inefficiency and therefore strengthen the resilience of economies that decide and manage to invest adequately in the transition to more sustainable technologies. Besides, OECD countries improve their energy efficiency scores over time, whilst non-OECD countries do not. This implies that sustainable technologies transition is made more efficient by environmental innovation but the process is fostered by disposing of a resilient economic system – hence, vulnerability can affect the transition. These hypotheses lead to important economic, social and environmental implications for energy policy modelling.

Abstract This paper explores the results and implications of an illustrative application of a sustainability assessment framework in the design and evaluation of a major integrated power system plan. The paper examines the integrated power system plan developed by the Ontario Power Authority in 2007. The basic framework rests on a generic set of evaluation criteria reflecting basic requirements for progress towards sustainability that was adopted, reinterpreted and applied by the Authority in support of its proposed plan. In response to evident deficiencies in the Authority’s work, the authors and colleagues undertook a re-examination using a more fully elaborated sustainability assessment framework, specified for application to power system planning. The results point to a plan and plan components substantially different from those proposed by the Authority. More generally, the results highlight three advantages of applying such a sustainability assessment framework: comprehensive coverage of key requirements for progress towards sustainability while ensuring careful attention to the context and concerns of the sector; emphasis on identifying plan options that avoid major trade-offs among the sustainability criteria and recognition of interactions among the social, ecological, economic and technological realms favouring options that offer multiple, mutually reinforcing and lasting benefits.

Abstract The development of the regional economy in China is unbalanced. Interregional "carbon leakage" and "carbon transfer" have a significant impact on the realization of carbon emission mitigation targets and the allocation of responsibility. Using China's interregional input-output tables and the corresponding carbon emission data for 2007 and 2010, this paper proposes an interregional Ghosh input-output model and estimates the amount of interprovincial carbon emission transfer from the supply-side perspective. We find that the main direction of supply-side carbon emission transfer is from resource-intensive provinces in the central and western regions to developed provinces in the eastern coastal regions. Further analysis shows that the transfer is mainly concentrated in the production and distribution of electricity and heat, nonmetallic mineral products, and basic metals, whose carbon emissions account for approximately 70% of all sectors’ carbon emissions. The differences between the supply side and the demand side of China's provinces are mainly reflected in the transfer out of carbon emissions.

Abstract This paper addresses the cost effectiveness of renewable energy technologies in achieving low abatement costs and promoting sustainable developments under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). According to the results of our optimal energy option's analysis, at project scale, compared with a diesel-only energy option, photovoltaic (PV)–diesel (PVDB), wind–diesel (WDB) and PV—wind–diesel (PVWDB) hybrids are very cost-effective energy options. Moreover, energy options with high levels of renewable energy, including 100% renewables, have the lowest net present cost and they are already cost effective without CDM. On the other hand, while the removal of about 87% carbon dioxide emissions could be achieved at negative cost, initial investment could increase by a factor of 40, which is one of the primary barriers hindering wider renewable energy applications in developing countries, among others. Thus, in order to increase developing countries’ participation in the carbon market, CDM policy should shift from a purely market-oriented approach to investigating how to facilitate renewable energy projects through barrier removal. Thus, we recommend that further research should focus on how to efficiently remove renewable energy implementation barriers as a means to improve developing countries’ participation in meaningful emission reduction while at the same time meeting the needs of sustainable economic development.