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New approach proposed for defining preconditions for human development Crossing certain biophysical thresholds could have disastrous consequences for humanity Three of nine interlinked planetary boundaries have already been overstepped

Abstract In the past decade, several efforts have been made to project armed conflict risk into the future. This study broadens current approaches by presenting a first-of-its-kind application of machine learning (ML) methods to project sub-national armed conflict risk over the African continent along three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios and three Representative Concentration Pathways towards 2050. Results of the open-source ML framework CoPro are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic storylines of the SSPs, and the resulting out-of-sample armed conflict projections obtained with Random Forest classifiers agree with the patterns observed in comparable studies. In SSP1-RCP2.6, conflict risk is low in most regions although the Horn of Africa and parts of East Africa continue to be conflict-prone. Conflict risk increases in the more adverse SSP3-RCP6.0 scenario, especially in Central Africa and large parts of Western Africa. We specifically assessed the role of hydro-climatic indicators as drivers of armed conflict. Overall, their importance is limited compared to main conflict predictors but results suggest that changing climatic conditions may both increase and decrease conflict risk, depending on the location: in Northern Africa and large parts of Eastern Africa climate change increases projected conflict risk whereas for areas in the West and northern part of the Sahel shifting climatic conditions may reduce conflict risk. With our study being at the forefront of ML applications for conflict risk projections, we identify various challenges for this arising scientific field. A major concern is the limited selection of relevant quantified indicators for the SSPs at present. Nevertheless, ML models such as the one presented here are a viable and scalable way forward in the field of armed conflict risk projections, and can help to inform the policy-making process with respect to climate security.

Acoustic resonances in combustion systems like central heating boilers prohibit further technological advances in these systems. The design and construction is obstructed by acoustic problems because they are largely misunderstood, in spite of our increase in knowledge over the last decades. The flame often acts as an active element in the acoustic field, because the flame transfer function of acoustic waves has a large amplitude at low frequencies. Current models of the phase of the flame transfer function of Bunsen-type flames, based on kinematic behavior of the flame dynamics, completely miss the experimentally observed phase, unless the measured flow field is used in the model. In the current paper we analyze numerical results of the flame dynamics, flow field and flame transfer function found with a 2D detailed numerical model of the flow and structure of the flame on a multiple-slit burner. The model is validated with experiments of the flame dynamics (using chemiluminescence), flow dynamics (using PIV) and flame transfer function (using OH luminescence for the heat release fluctuations and heated wire probe for the acoustic distortions) on exactly the same configuration. A very good agreement is found which indicates the importance of predicting all the influences of the flow on the flame and vise-versa.

AbstractA better understanding of how climate affects growth in tree species is essential for improved predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. Long-term climate averages (mean climate) and short-term deviations from these averages (anomalies) both influence tree growth, but the rarity of long-term data integrating climatic gradients with tree censuses has so far limited our understanding of their respective role, especially in tropical systems. Here, we combined 49 years of growth data for 509 tree species across 23 tropical rainforest plots along a climatic gradient to examine how tree growth responds to both climate means and anomalies, and how species functional traits mediate these tree growth responses to climate. We showed that short-term, anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand and solar radiation consistently reduced tree growth. Drier forests and fast-growing species were more sensitive to water stress anomalies. In addition, species traits related to water use and photosynthesis partly explained differences in growth sensitivity to both long-term and short-term climate variations. Our study demonstrates that both climate means and anomalies shape tree growth in tropical forests, and that species traits can be leveraged to understand these demographic responses to climate change, offering a promising way forward to forecast tropical forest dynamics under different climate trajectories.

Setting up strategies for a sound management of plastic packaging waste (PPW) is becoming increasingly crucial at many levels of the value chain in Europe. After the very first implementation of an extended producer responsibility scheme in Germany in 1991, many EU Countries followed. This resulted in a complex network of schemes that differ from one member state to another. This paper brings together the three latest studies describing the current flows of PPW across the waste value chain from Austria (reference year 2013), Germany and the Netherlands (reference year 2017). With this aim, the models of the three single studies have been adapted to fit into a common model, allowing to perform a comparative analysis. Although with a relatively comparable product market, the three countries have different management systems (e.g., separate collection systems, target sorting products and treatment of residual waste), reflecting different national strategies to achieve the circular economy targets. Recycling rates (in terms of washed milled goods at the output of the recycling process) for the three countries resulted in 23%, 43% and 30% of the total mass of PPW generated in, respectively, Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. The fraction of mixed recycled plastics, relevant for Germany and the Netherlands only, was determined to be one of the major determinants of the differences in recycling rates. Furthermore, the discussion revolves around new political targets that have the potential to contribute to addressing the issue of tradeoff between quantity and quality of recycled plastics placed on the market, with measures such as design-for-recycling and eco-modulation of EPR fees playing a critical role, while also pointing out the aspects that inevitably hinder closed-loop recycling.

AbstractSulfate reduction in salt‐rich wastewaters using unadapted granular sludge was investigated in 0.9 L UASB reactors (pH 7.0 ± 0.2; hydraulic retention time from 8–14 h) fed with acetate, propionate, or ethanol at organic loading rates up to 10 gCOD.L−1.day−1 and in excess sulfate (COD/SO of 0.5). High‐rate sulfate reduction rates (up to 3.7 gSO42‐.L−1.day−1) were achieved at salinities exceeding 50 gNaCl.L−1 and 1 gMgCl2.L−1. Sulfate reduction proceeded at a salinity of up to 70 gNaCl.L−1 and 1 gMgCl2.L−1 (corresponding to a conductivity of about 85–90 mS.cm−1), although at lower rates compared to a conductivity of 60–70 mS.cm−1. Ethanol as well as propionate were suitable substrates for sulfate reduction, with acetate and sulfide as the end products. The successful high‐rate treatment was due to the proliferation of a halotolerant incomplete oxidizing SRB population present in the unadapted inoculum sludge. Bioaugmentation of this sludge with the acetate oxidizing halotolerant SRB Desulfobacter halotolerans was unsuccessful, as the strain washed out from the UASB reactor without colonizing the UASB granules. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.