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Two main topics are analyzed in this paper: a crowding model for an urban destination is tested by the use of a binary logistic model in order to identify the variables influencing crowding perception; and the inherent negativity of the crowding concept, as is often assumed, is examined through association statistics. The results confirmed that personal and behavioral variables have a larger effect on the perception of crowding than use-level. Furthermore, the relationship between crowding and experience, while significantly negative, could only be found in respondents with a preference for low, and a perception of high, use-levels, while for the majority of individuals the perception of a certain crowding level did not lead to a negative evaluation of the conditions. This proves that the concept of crowding cannot be assumed to be implicitly negative, and needs individual preferences to be fully understood.

In this paper we study the diffusion of non-hydro renewable energy (NHRE) technologies for electricity generation across 108 developing countries between 1980 and 2010. We use two-stage estimation methods to identify the determinants behind the choice of whether or not to adopt NHRE as well as about the amount of electricity to produce from renewable energy sources. We find that NHRE diffusion accelerates with the implementation of economic and regulatory instruments, higher per capita income and schooling levels, and stable, democratic regimes. In contrast, increasing openness and aid, institutional and strategic policy support programs, growth of electricity consumption, and high fossil fuel production appear to delay NHRE diffusion. Furthermore, we find that a diverse energy mix increases the probability of NHRE adoption. Finally, we find a weak support for a positive influence of the Kyoto Protocol on NHRE diffusion and no evidence for any influence resulting from financial sector development. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

We develop an economic model for fossil-fuel and carbon-free energy supply and demand with capital and labor as production factors, and endogenous technological change through learning by research and learning by doing. We use the model to study inter-temporally efficient carbon taxes for climate stabilization targets. Calculations show an inverted U-curve with an initial rise of carbon-taxes that sets in motion the transition from fossil-fuels to carbon-free energy sources, followed by a drop in carbon taxes when the carbon-free energy sources have grown mature.

In the context of the transformation toward a “green economy,” issues related to natural resource use have rapidly increased in importance in European and international policy debates. The large number of studies applying economy-wide material flow analysis so far mostly produced aggregated national indicators, making the results difficult to connect to policies, which are often designed for single sectors or consumption areas. This paper provides a detailed assessment of the composition of EU’s material footprint in its global context, aiming at identifying the main product groups contributing to overall material consumption and specifying the geographical sources for the raw materials required to satisfy EU’s final demand. Based on multi-regional input–output (MRIO) modeling, we apply production layer decomposition to assess supply chains and their structural changes from 1995 to 2011. The global MRIO database used in this study is EXIOBASE 3, which disaggregates 200 products and 163 industries, of which 33 represent material extraction sectors. By that means, we increase the level of detail to a degree where policies can more easily connect to. We find that the generally growing material footprint of the EU was characterized by a dramatic shift regarding the origin of raw materials, with the share of materials extracted within the EU territory falling from 68 % in 1995 to 35 % in 2011. In 2011, raw materials extracted in China to produce exports to the EU already contributed an equal share to EU’s material footprint as material extraction within the EU itself. Import dependency is most critical for the material group of metal ores, with only 13 % of all metals required as inputs to EU final demand stemming from within the EU. Regarding product composition, construction was confirmed as the most important sector contributing to the material footprint, followed by the group of manufacturing products based on biomass. Materials embodied in service sector activities together contributed a quarter to the total material footprint in 2011, making services an important, but currently disregarded area for European resource policies. We also find that supply chain structures became more complex over time, with a growing part located outside the EU territory.

Increasing the realism with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society since actors, decision-making, and institutions are the defining elements of transition pathways. In this paper, we explore how this can be done by conducting a model-based scenario analysis. The increasing focus on implementation and transition dynamics towards long-term objectives requires a better comprehension of what drives change and how those changes can be accelerated. We explore opportunities that arise from a deeper engagement of quantitative systems modeling with socio-technical transitions studies, initiative-based learning, and applied economics. We argue that a number of opportunities for enriching the realism in model-based scenario analysis can arise through model refinements oriented towards a more detailed approach in terms of actor heterogeneity, as well as through integration across different analytical and disciplinary approaches.

Economic models suggest that in many cases, market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement reach the two-digit percentage range. Consequently, the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage. Despite this, most project proponents neglect market leakage for their project, because the influence of an individual project on market prices seems to be negligible. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of theories and applicable proposals regarding the quantification and attribution of leakage effects. The aim of this paper is to develop a proposal for the attribution of market leakage effects to CDM projects. To this purpose, we identify the transmission mechanisms for CDM project leakage, investigate the current practice of leakage accounting, and analyse alternative attribution methods for leakage effects that are transmitted through price changes. We find that project-specific approaches must fail to take account of such leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. Our proposal is based on commodity-specific leakage factors which can be applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. The proposal is conservative, equitable, incentive compatible and applicable at manageable costs.