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Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate ∼81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Increasing demand for food and fibre by the growing human population is driving significant land use (LU) change from forest into intensively managed land systems in tropical areas. But empirical evidence on the extent to which such changes affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of trace gases is still scarce, especially in Africa. We investigated the effect of LU on soil trace gas production in the Mau Forest Complex region, Kenya. Intact soil cores were taken from natural forest, commercial and smallholder tea plantations, eucalyptus plantations and grazing lands, and were incubated in the lab under different soil moisture conditions. Soil fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) were quantified, and we approximated annual estimates of soil N2O and NO fluxes using soil moisture values measured in situ. Forest and eucalyptus plantations yielded annual fluxes of 0.3–1.3 kg N2O–N ha−1 a−1 and 1.5–5.2 kg NO–N ha−1 a−1. Soils of commercial tea plantations, which are highly fertilized, showed higher fluxes (0.9 kg N2O–N ha−1 a−1 and 4.3 kg NO–N ha−1 a−1) than smallholder tea plantations (0.1 kg N2O–N ha−1 a−1 and 2.1 kg NO–N ha−1 a−1) or grazing land (0.1 kg N2O–N ha−1 a−1 and 1.1 kg NO–N ha−1 a−1). High soil NO fluxes were probably the consequence of long-term N fertilization and associated soil acidification, likely promoting chemodenitrification. Our experimental approach can be implemented in understudied regions, with the potential to increase the amount of information on production and consumption of trace gases from soils.

AbstractCentral European grasslands are characterized by a wide range of different management practices in close geographical proximity. Site‐specific management strategies strongly affect the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of the three greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). The evaluation of environmental impacts at site level is challenging, because most in situ measurements focus on the quantification of CO2 exchange, while long‐term N2O and CH4 flux measurements at ecosystem scale remain scarce. Here, we synthesized ecosystem CO2, N2O, and CH4 fluxes from 14 managed grassland sites, quantified by eddy covariance or chamber techniques. We found that grasslands were on average a CO2 sink (−1,783 to −91 g CO2 m−2 year−1), but a N2O source (18–638 g CO2‐eq. m−2 year−1), and either a CH4 sink or source (−9 to 488 g CO2‐eq. m−2 year−1). The net GHG balance (NGB) of nine sites where measurements of all three GHGs were available was found between −2,761 and −58 g CO2‐eq. m−2 year−1, with N2O and CH4 emissions offsetting concurrent CO2 uptake by on average 21 ± 6% across sites. The only positive NGB was found for one site during a restoration year with ploughing. The predictive power of soil parameters for N2O and CH4 fluxes was generally low and varied considerably within years. However, after site‐specific data normalization, we identified environmental conditions that indicated enhanced GHG source/sink activity (“sweet spots”) and gave a good prediction of normalized overall fluxes across sites. The application of animal slurry to grasslands increased N2O and CH4 emissions. The N2O‐N emission factor across sites was 1.8 ± 0.5%, but varied considerably at site level among the years (0.1%–8.6%). Although grassland management led to increased N2O and CH4 emissions, the CO2 sink strength was generally the most dominant component of the annual GHG budget.

The livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40–50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6–7.5 GtCO2e yr–1. Livestock accounts for up to half of the technical mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, through management options that sustainably intensify livestock production, promote carbon sequestration in rangelands and reduce emissions from manures, and through reductions in the demand for livestock products. The economic potential of these management alternatives is less than 10% of what is technically possible because of adoption constraints, costs and numerous trade-offs. The mitigation potential of reductions in livestock product consumption is large, but their economic potential is unknown at present. More research and investment are needed to increase the affordability and adoption of mitigation practices, to moderate consumption of livestock products where appropriate, and to avoid negative impacts on livelihoods, economic activities and the environment

AbstractOur understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2O emissions for the period 1861–2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process‐based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2O‐N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2O‐N/year in the recent decade (2007–2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2O‐N/year to 3.3 Tg N2O‐N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2O‐N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process‐based simulations.

Abstract. Alpine grasslands sustain local economy providing fodder for livestock. Intensive fertilization is common to enhance their yields, thus creating negative externalities on water quality that are difficult to evaluate without reliable estimates of nutrient fluxes. We apply a 1-D mechanistic ecosystem model, seamlessly integrating land-surface energy balance, soil hydrology, vegetation dynamics, and soil biogeochemistry aiming at assessing the grassland response to fertilization. We simulate the major water, carbon, nutrient, and energy fluxes of nine grassland plots across the broad European Alpine region. We provide an unprecedent interdisciplinary model evaluation confirming its performance against observed variables from different datasets. Subsequently, we apply the model to test the influence of fertilization practices on grassland yields and nitrate (NO3) losses through leaching. Despite the generally low NO3 concentration in groundwater recharge, the variability across sites is remarkable, mostly, but not exclusively, dictated by elevation. In high-Alpine sites short growing seasons lead to less efficient nitrogen (N) uptake for biomass production. This combined with lower evapotranspiration rates results in higher amounts of drainage and NO3 leaching to groundwater. The local soil hydrology has a crucial role in driving the NO3 use efficiency. The commonly applied fixed-threshold limit on fertilizer N input is suboptimal. We suggest that major hydrological and soil property differences across sites should be considered in the delineation of best practices or regulations for management. Using distributed maps informed with key soil and climatic attributes or systematically implementing integrated ecosystem models as shown here can contribute to achieving more sustainable practices.