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AbstractClimate change amplifies dry and hot extremes, yet the mechanism, extent, scope, and temporal scale of causal linkages between dry and hot extremes remain underexplored. Here using the concept of system dynamics, we investigate cross-scale interactions within dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extreme event networks and quantify the magnitude, temporal-scale, and physical drivers of cascading effects (CEs) of drying-on-heating and vice-versa, across the globe. We find that locations exhibiting exceptionally strong CE (hotspots) for dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extremes generally coincide. However, the CEs differ strongly in their timescale of interaction, hydroclimatic drivers, and sensitivity to changes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and background aridity. The CE of drying-on-heating in the hotspot locations reaches its peak immediately driven by the compounding influence of vapor pressure deficit, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation. In contrast, the CE of heating-on-drying peaks gradually dominated by concurrent changes in potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and net-radiation with the effect of vapor pressure deficit being strongly controlled by ecosystem isohydricity and background aridity. Our results help improve our understanding of the causal linkages and the predictability of compound extremes and related impacts.

Batch biochemical methane potential (BMP) assays to evaluate the methane yield of biogas substrates such as energy crops are usually carried out with undiluted inoculum. A BMP assay was performed on two energy crops (green cuttings and grass silage). Anaerobic digestion was performed both with and without supplementation of three commercial additives containing trace metals in liquid, solid or adsorbed form (on clay particles). In order to reveal positive effects of trace metal supplementation on the methane yield, besides undiluted inoculum, 3-fold and 10-fold dilutions of the inoculum were applied for substrate digestion. Diluted inoculum variants were supplemented with both mineral nutrients and pH-buffering substances to prevent a collapse of the digestion process. As expected, commercial additives had no effect on the digestion process performed with undiluted inoculum, while significant increases of methane production through trace element supplementation could be observed on the diluted variants. The effect of inoculum dilution may be twofold: (1) decrease in trace metal supplementation from the inoculum and (2) reduction in the initial number of bacterial cells. Bacteria require higher growth rates for substrate degradation and hence have higher trace element consumption. According to common knowledge of the biogas process, periods with volatile fatty acids accumulation and decreased pH may have occurred in the course ofanaerobic digestion. These effects may have led to inhibition, not only ofmethanogenes and acetogenes involved in the final phases of methane production, but also offibre-degrading bacterial strains involved in polymer hydrolysis. Further research is required to confirm this hypothesis.

AbstractRecognition of the importance of intraspecific variation in ecological processes has been growing, but empirical studies and models of global change have only begun to address this issue in detail. This review discusses sources and patterns of intraspecific trait variation and their consequences for understanding how ecological processes and patterns will respond to global change. We examine how current ecological models and theories incorporate intraspecific variation, review existing data sources that could help parameterize models that account for intraspecific variation in global change predictions, and discuss new data that may be needed. We provide guidelines on when it is most important to consider intraspecific variation, such as when trait variation is heritable or when nonlinear relationships are involved. We also highlight benefits and limitations of different model types and argue that many common modeling approaches such as matrix population models or global dynamic vegetation models can allow a stronger consideration of intraspecific trait variation if the necessary data are available. We recommend that existing data need to be made more accessible, though in some cases, new experiments are needed to disentangle causes of variation.

Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe.In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements.Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus.Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies.

Although a significant effort has been dedicated to studying changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), mechanisms behind these changes are not yet fully understood. In this study, we address this issue by investigating the link between climate controls and mass changes of the GrIS between August 2002 and June 2017. We estimate the GrIS mass changes based on averaging the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly gravity field solutions from four processing data centers. We then investigate the possible impact of different climate variables on the GrIS mass changes using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), temperature, precipitation, and the 700 hPa wind retrieved from the ERA-5 reanalysis. Results indicate a decrease of −267.77 ± 32.67 Gt/yr in the total mass of the GrIS over the 16-year period. By quantifying the relationship between climate controls and mass changes, we observe that mass changes in different parts of Greenland have varying sensitivity to climate controls. The NAO mainly controls mass changes in west Greenland, where the summertime NAO modulations have a greater impact on the summer mass loss than the wintertime NAO modulations have on the winter mass gain. The GrIS mass changes are correlated spatially with summer temperature, especially in southwest Greenland. Mass balance changes in northwest Greenland are mostly affected by wind anomalies. These new findings based on wind anomalies indicate that the summer atmospheric circulation anomalies control surface temperature and snow precipitation and consequently affect mass changes in different parts of Greenland.

AbstractCommunicating the scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is real increases climate change beliefs, worry and support for public action in the United States. In this preregistered experiment, we tested two scientific consensus messages, a classic message on the reality of human-caused climate change and an updated message additionally emphasizing scientific agreement that climate change is a crisis. Across online convenience samples from 27 countries (n = 10,527), the classic message substantially reduces misperceptions (d = 0.47, 95% CI (0.41, 0.52)) and slightly increases climate change beliefs (from d = 0.06, 95% CI (0.01, 0.11) to d = 0.10, 95% CI (0.04, 0.15)) and worry (d = 0.05, 95% CI (−0.01, 0.10)) but not support for public action directly. The updated message is equally effective but provides no added value. Both messages are more effective for audiences with lower message familiarity and higher misperceptions, including those with lower trust in climate scientists and right-leaning ideologies. Overall, scientific consensus messaging is an effective, non-polarizing tool for changing misperceptions, beliefs and worry across different audiences.

Abstract. The EU Horizon 2020 project COREWIND (COst REduction and increase performance of floating WIND technology) has developed two floating platforms for the new International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind 15 MW reference wind turbine. One design – “WindCrete” – is a spar floater, and the other – “Activefloat” – is a semi-submersible floater; both designs are made of concrete. In this work the design of the floaters is introduced with their aero–hydro–servo-elastic numerical models, and the responses of both floaters in both static and dynamic simulations are investigated. The static displacements and natural frequencies are simulated and discussed. Additionally, the effects of the mean wave drift forces and second-order difference-frequency wave forces on the systems' responses are presented. The increase in the turbine's power capacity to 15 MW in IEA Wind model leads to an increase in inertial forces and aerodynamic thrust force when compared to similar floating platforms coupled to the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) 10 MW reference model. The goal of this work is to investigate the floaters' responses for different load cases. The results in this paper suggest that at mild wave loads the motion responses of the 15 MW floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) are dominated by low-frequency forces. Therefore, motions are dominated by the wind forces and second-order wave forces rather than the first-order wave forces. After assessing and understanding the models' responses, the two 15 MW FOWT numerical reference models are publicly available to be used in the research and development of floating wind energy.