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SummaryWinter is a period of dormancy for plants of cold environments. However, winter climate is changing, leading to an increasing frequency of stochastic warm periods (winter warming events) and concomitant reductions in snow cover. These conditions can break dormancy for some plants and expose them to freeze‐and‐thaw stress. Mosses are a major component of high‐latitude ecosystems, yet the longer‐term impacts of such winter warming events on mosses remain unknown.In order to determine the longer‐term legacy effects of winter warming events on mosses, we undertook a simulation of these events over three consecutive winters in a sub‐Arctic dwarf shrub‐dominated open woodland. The mat‐forming feather moss,Hylocomium splendens(the most abundant cryptogam in this system), is one of the most widespread Arctic and boreal mosses and plays a key functional role in ecosystems. We studied the ecophysiological performance of this moss during the summers of the experimental period (2007–2009) and in the following years (2010–2013).We show that the previously reported warming‐induced reduction in segment growth and photosynthesis during the experimental years was persistent. Four years after the last event, photosynthesis and segment growth were still 30 and 36% lower than control levels, which was only a slight improvement from 44 and 43% 4 years earlier. Winter warming did not affect segment symmetry. During the years after the last simulated event, in both warmed and control plots, chlorophyll fluorescence and segment growth, but not net photosynthesis, increased slightly. The increases were probably driven by increased summer rainfall over the study years, highlighting the sensitivity of this moss to rainfall change.Overall, the legacy effects shown here demonstrate that this widespread and important moss is likely to be significantly disadvantaged in a future sub‐Arctic climate where frequent winter warming events may become the norm. Given the key importance of mosses for soil insulation, shelter and carbon sequestration in high‐latitude regions, such persistent impacts may ultimately affect important ecosystem functions.ALay Summaryis available for this article.

Winter climate and snow cover are the important drivers of plant community development in polar regions. However, the impacts of changing winter climate and associated changes in snow regime have received much less attention than changes during summer. Here, we synthesize the results from studies on the impacts of extreme winter weather events on polar heathland and lichen communities. Dwarf shrubs, mosses and soil arthropods were negatively impacted by extreme warming events while lichens showed variable responses to changes in extreme winter weather events. Snow mould formation underneath the snow may contribute to spatial heterogeneity in plant growth, arthropod communities and carbon cycling. Winter snow cover and depth will drive the reported impacts of winter climate change and add to spatial patterns in vegetation heterogeneity. The challenges ahead lie in obtaining better predictions on the snow patterns across the landscape and how these will be altered due to winter climate change.

AbstractClimate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub‐Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro‐arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro‐arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub‐Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub‐Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single‐factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.

The subarctic environment of northernmost Sweden has changed over the past century, particularly elements of climate and cryosphere. This paper presents a unique geo-referenced record of environmental and ecosystem observations from the area since 1913. Abiotic changes have been substantial. Vegetation changes include not only increases in growth and range extension but also counterintuitive decreases, and stability: all three possible responses. Changes in species composition within the major plant communities have ranged between almost no changes to almost a 50 per cent increase in the number of species. Changes in plant species abundance also vary with particularly large increases in trees and shrubs (up to 600%). There has been an increase in abundance of aspen and large changes in other plant communities responding to wetland area increases resulting from permafrost thaw. Populations of herbivores have responded to varying management practices and climate regimes, particularly changing snow conditions. While it is difficult to generalize and scale-up the site-specific changes in ecosystems, this very site-specificity, combined with projections of change, is of immediate relevance to local stakeholders who need to adapt to new opportunities and to respond to challenges. Furthermore, the relatively small area and its unique datasets are a microcosm of the complexity of Arctic landscapes in transition that remains to be documented.

Climate change is affecting the species composition and functioning of Arctic and sub-Arctic plant and soil communities. Here we studied patterns in soil microarthropod (springtails and mites) communities across a gradient of increasing elevation that spanned 450 m, across which mean temperature declined by approximately 2.5 °C, in sub-Arctic Sweden. Across this gradient we characterized microarthropod communities in each of two types of vegetation, i.e., heath and meadow, to determine whether their responses to declining temperature differed with vegetation type. Mite abundance declined with increasing elevation, while springtail abundance showed the opposite response. Springtail communities were dominated by larger species at higher elevation. Mite abundance was unaffected by vegetation type, while springtail abundance was 53% higher in the heath than meadow vegetation across the gradient. Springtails but not mites responded differently to elevation in heath and meadow vegetation; hemi-edaphic species dominated in the heath at higher elevation while epi-edaphic species dominated in the meadow. Our results suggest that sub-Arctic mite and springtail communities will likely respond in contrasting ways to changes in vegetation and soil properties resulting from climate warming.

AbstractThe regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.