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Information about decadal to millennial variability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is fundamental for the assessment of ENSO responses to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Despite a growing number of ENSO reconstructions, the overall picture of Holocene ENSO variability is inconsistent. Here, we revisit the iconic Holocene ENSO sediment record of Lake Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Rodbell et al., 1999). We asked: (i) How coherent are the records of clastic layers (flood layers) in the sediments of Lake Pallcacocha and adjacent Lake Fondococha? (ii) What are the synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions that lead to intense precipitation and, potentially, to alluvial activity promoting the deposition of clastic layers in these lakes? (iii) Is intense precipitation in this area associated with El Nino, or not? We analyzed clastic layers in Late-Holocene sediments from multiple cores in Lakes Pallcacocha and Fondococha from Cajas National Park, southern Ecuadorian Andes. Additionally, we investigated precipitation data from 13 nearby meteorological stations to test if intense precipitation (percentiles P0.95, P0.99, P0.995) is predominantly related to El Nino conditions or not (based on 15 different ENSO indices). Our results show that the absolute flood frequencies (clastic layers per 100 years) differ substantially from lake to lake. This indicates that the frequency of clastic layers reflects different sensitivities (thresholds of precipitation) of the catchments to alluvial activity. 210Pb ages suggest that neither the 1982/83 nor the 1997/98 very strong El Ninos produced clastic layers comparable to those found in the late Holocene. Daily precipitation records from meteorological stations close to Lake Pallcacocha including a high-altitude station from the western slope of the Andes did not show unusually high precipitation during the super El Nino 2015/16. We further find that intense precipitation in this area occurs at roughly equal probability under El Nino, La Nina and neutral conditions. Although the spectral properties of the late Holocene clastic layers in Lake Pallcacocha fall into the typical ENSO frequency band, we do not find evidence in the recent sediments and the meteorological data that would support a diagnostic link between alluvial activity in Lake Pallcacocha and strong El Nino events. Our data do not support the idea that the (late) Holocene flood record of Lake Pallcacocha is a conclusive paleo-El Nino record

Cyclones and other climate disturbances profoundly affect coastal ecosystems, promoting changes in the benthic communities that require time, sometimes even years, for a complete recovery. In this study we have analysed the morphological and genetic changes occurred in top shell (Gibbula umbilicalis and Phorcus lineatus) assemblages from the Bay of Biscay following explosive cyclogenesis events in 2014. Comparison with previous samples at short (three years before the cyclogenesis) and long (Upper Pleistocene) temporal scales served to better evaluate the extent of change induced by these disturbances in a more global dimension. A significant increase in mean size after the cyclogenesis was found for the two species, suggesting selective sweeping of small individuals weakly adhered to substrata. Loss of haplotype variants at the cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene suggests a population bottleneck, although it was not intense enough to produce significant changes in haplotype frequencies. The high population connectivity and metapopulation structuring of the two species in the area likely help the populations to recover from disturbances. At a wider temporal scale, cyclogenesis effects seemed to compensate the apparent decreasing trends in size for P. lineatus occurred after the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Considering disturbance regimes for population baselines is recommended when the long-term effects of climate and anthropogenic pressures are evaluated.

Effects of climate change on water resources availability have been studied extensively; however, few studies have explored the sensitivity of water to several factors of change. This study aimed to explore the sensitive of water balance in water resources systems due to future changes of climate, land use and water use. Dynamical and statistical downscaling were applied to four global climate models for the projections of precipitation and temperature of two climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Land use projections were carried out through a combination of Markov chains and cellular automata methods. These projections were introduced in a hydrologic model for future water supply evaluation, and its interactions with water use projections derived from a statistical analysis which served to assessment deficits and surplus in water to 2050. This approach was applied in the Machangara river basin located in the Ecuadorian southern Andes. Results showed that the water supply exceeds the water demand in most scenarios; however, taking into account the seasonality, there were months like August and January that would have significant water deficit in joint scenarios in the future. These results could be useful for planners formulating actions to achieve water security for future generations.

Protected areas are necessary for the conservation and enhancement of biodiversity. Wildfires are major threats to forests and other natural areas, because they may cause irreversible damages. The aim of this study was to analyze the perspective of experts (N = 284), from six countries of the Black Sea, on the current status and problems of protected areas and wildfires. Understanding their points of view could enhance future management on these issues in the region. Data collection was carried out for 9 months, using a web-based questionnaire. Wildfires were perceived as a serious problem in Turkey, Armenia and Greece but as a substantially less serious problem in Romania, Ukraine and Moldova. In Greece, Armenia, and especially Ukraine, the current designated protected areas are considered sufficient to maintain biodiversity, while in Romania, Turkey, and especially Moldova, more areas should be designated as protected. A major need in all countries (except for Turkey) is the increased use of information and communication technologies for both wildfire suppression and protected area management. Experts were divided on whether wildfire suppression and management of protected areas are interconnected. However, there is growing awareness of the adverse impacts of climate change in protected areas and the frequency of wildfires in the future. The most frequently suggested measures to alleviate these impacts were: changes in forest management and increasing public awareness for wildfire suppression, along with changes in forest management and increased staff training to enhance protected area conservation.

AbstractThis paper is a critical analysis with two main objectives: to reflect on climate change and demonstrate the importance of adaptive capacities of social actors in rural areas; and to establish how ethnocompetitiveness is fundamental in the mentioned adaptive process. The analysis highlights two key elements that are part of a functional ethnocompetitiveness: local knowledge and management of land resources, allowing for the generation of adaptive capacities to address the inherent biophysical changes associated with climatic variations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment

AbstractAccurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha−1 year−1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36–5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha−1 year−1; CI 5.57–12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage‐related AGB losses rather than by mortality‐related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand‐level AGB stocks by 4% (1%–17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%–57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage‐related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%–80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.

Due to regular influx of organic matter and nutrients, waste stabilization ponds (WSPs) can release considerable quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs). To investigate the spatiotemporal variations of GHG emissions from WSPs with a focus on the effects of sludge accumulation and distribution, we conducted a bathymetry survey and two sampling campaigns in Ucubamba WSP (Cuenca, Ecuador). The results indicated that spatial variation of GHG emissions was strongly dependent on sludge distribution. Thick sludge layers in aerated ponds and facultative ponds caused substantial CO2 and CH4 emissions which accounted for 21.3% and 78.7% of the total emissions from the plant. Conversely, the prevalence of anoxic conditions stimulated the N2O consumption via complete denitrification leading to a net uptake from the atmosphere, i.e. up to 1.4±0.2 mg-N m-2 d-1. Double emission rates of CO2 were found in the facultative and maturation ponds during the day compared to night-time emissions, indicating the important role of algal respiration, while no diel variation of the CH4 and N2O emissions was found. Despite the uptake of N2O, the total GHG emissions of the WSP was higher than constructed wetlands and conventional centralized wastewater treatment facilities. Hence, it is recommended that sludge management with proper desludging regulation should be included as an important mitigation measure to reduce the carbon footprint of pond treatment facilities.

AbstractBACKGROUNDAgriculture is the main means of subsistence for most of the population in developing countries. Crops that can increase their value with in situ processing have a big impact on the small landholder's economics. Moreover, crops such as coffee and cocoa beans have been very important for Ecuadorian farmers. In this study, we wanted to analyze if the climatic conditions exist for growing high‐quality tea in Ecuador and determine the areas that will be less affected by global climate change in the future.RESULTSWe used a GIS (geographic information systems) based analysis, together with ecological niche modeling to determine areas in Ecuador where Ceylon and Nilgiris tea varieties could be grown, which will maintain similar ecological conditions in the future, and have a high agricultural aptitude. In total, there are more than 150 000 ha in Ecuador that could be converted to high‐quality tea plantations, most of them in the coastal provinces, with some specific areas in the Andean foothills.CONCLUSIONEcuador has a significant amount of land with the potential to grow high‐quality tea, with no significant ecological niche modifications due to climate change in the long‐term future. Tea is a viable and potentially highly profitable crop for small landholders and should be considered by local stakeholders. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry