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Information about decadal to millennial variability of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is fundamental for the assessment of ENSO responses to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Despite a growing number of ENSO reconstructions, the overall picture of Holocene ENSO variability is inconsistent. Here, we revisit the iconic Holocene ENSO sediment record of Lake Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Rodbell et al., 1999). We asked: (i) How coherent are the records of clastic layers (flood layers) in the sediments of Lake Pallcacocha and adjacent Lake Fondococha? (ii) What are the synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions that lead to intense precipitation and, potentially, to alluvial activity promoting the deposition of clastic layers in these lakes? (iii) Is intense precipitation in this area associated with El Nino, or not? We analyzed clastic layers in Late-Holocene sediments from multiple cores in Lakes Pallcacocha and Fondococha from Cajas National Park, southern Ecuadorian Andes. Additionally, we investigated precipitation data from 13 nearby meteorological stations to test if intense precipitation (percentiles P0.95, P0.99, P0.995) is predominantly related to El Nino conditions or not (based on 15 different ENSO indices). Our results show that the absolute flood frequencies (clastic layers per 100 years) differ substantially from lake to lake. This indicates that the frequency of clastic layers reflects different sensitivities (thresholds of precipitation) of the catchments to alluvial activity. 210Pb ages suggest that neither the 1982/83 nor the 1997/98 very strong El Ninos produced clastic layers comparable to those found in the late Holocene. Daily precipitation records from meteorological stations close to Lake Pallcacocha including a high-altitude station from the western slope of the Andes did not show unusually high precipitation during the super El Nino 2015/16. We further find that intense precipitation in this area occurs at roughly equal probability under El Nino, La Nina and neutral conditions. Although the spectral properties of the late Holocene clastic layers in Lake Pallcacocha fall into the typical ENSO frequency band, we do not find evidence in the recent sediments and the meteorological data that would support a diagnostic link between alluvial activity in Lake Pallcacocha and strong El Nino events. Our data do not support the idea that the (late) Holocene flood record of Lake Pallcacocha is a conclusive paleo-El Nino record

Abstract This paper proposes a framework to estimate the effects of exogenous fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks on the macroeconomic activity of price-taking oil producers. We use a structural vector autoregressive model estimated with Bayesian methods and apply it to the Ecuadorian economy. Specifically, we investigate the effects of unanticipated changes in taxes, government consumption spending, government investment spending, and oil revenues on economic activity. The results show that unanticipated expansive fiscal policy either through taxes or government investment can have positive effects on output. However, contrary to most studies in the literature, consumption spending shocks do not significantly affect gross domestic product. We also find that oil revenue shocks influence all the variables in the model, evidencing the vulnerability of the Ecuadorian economy to fluctuations of oil revenues. Historically, oil revenue shocks have been the most important driving force to move output above or below trend.

This study examines the impact of government spending, income, and tourism consumption on CO2 emissions in the 50 US states through a novel theoretical model derived from the Armey Curve model and the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. The findings of this research are essential for policymakers to develop effective strategies for mitigating environmental pollution. Utilizing panel cointegration analysis, the study provides valuable insights into whether continued increases in government spending contribute to higher pollution levels. By identifying the threshold point of spending as a percentage of GDP, policymakers can make informed decisions to avoid the trade-off between increased spending and environmental degradation. For instance, the analysis reveals that Hawaii's tipping point is 16.40%. The empirical results underscore the importance of adopting sustainable policies that foster economic growth while minimizing environmental harm. These findings will aid policymakers in formulating targeted and efficient approaches to tackle climate change and promote long-term environmental sustainability in the United States. Moreover, the impact of tourism development on CO2 emissions varies across states, with some US states experiencing a decrease while others see an increase.

Interaction of lava-like fuel-containing masses of Unit 4 at the Chernobyl NPP with structural concrete in the active phase of the accident of April 26, 1986, was studied. It was found that the fission fragments and the accumulated products contained in spent nuclear fuel penetrated the concrete from lava with different fractionation coefficients Kfr. The absolute values of Kfr were calculated, and this phenomenon was identified as a factor to be taken into account when estimating the total amount of radioactive waste for the Shelter.

Cyclones and other climate disturbances profoundly affect coastal ecosystems, promoting changes in the benthic communities that require time, sometimes even years, for a complete recovery. In this study we have analysed the morphological and genetic changes occurred in top shell (Gibbula umbilicalis and Phorcus lineatus) assemblages from the Bay of Biscay following explosive cyclogenesis events in 2014. Comparison with previous samples at short (three years before the cyclogenesis) and long (Upper Pleistocene) temporal scales served to better evaluate the extent of change induced by these disturbances in a more global dimension. A significant increase in mean size after the cyclogenesis was found for the two species, suggesting selective sweeping of small individuals weakly adhered to substrata. Loss of haplotype variants at the cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene suggests a population bottleneck, although it was not intense enough to produce significant changes in haplotype frequencies. The high population connectivity and metapopulation structuring of the two species in the area likely help the populations to recover from disturbances. At a wider temporal scale, cyclogenesis effects seemed to compensate the apparent decreasing trends in size for P. lineatus occurred after the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Considering disturbance regimes for population baselines is recommended when the long-term effects of climate and anthropogenic pressures are evaluated.

Abstract A model is developed to investigate the effect of energy investment on economic growth under a set of simplifying assumptions. The economy is treated as a two sector aggregate; the energy sector and the rest of the economy, whereas the model describing the energy-economy interaction is linear to the differential changes of the variables, adaptable to structural evolution and requires a modest amount of data for initialization. It can be used in a single stage or an iterative mode to produce outcomes for the short and medium run. The analysis reveals that energy productive investment has had an impact on the rate of formation of the non-energy capital stock and subsequently on economic growth. These effects appear amplified under a regime of increasing energy price.

Abstract The economic giant China, enjoying miraculously high economic performance since the 1980s, is currently facing an economic performance slowdown, along with environmental sustainability challenges. Energy-industry investments might serve as a potential driver of economic performance, indirectly inducing environmental sustainability through investments in the energy-industry transition from old technology to a renewable one. This research provides an empirical assessment of the causal bond between energy-industry investment and economic performance across the regional development levels, employing a dynamic longitudinal data modeling on China’s 27 provincial and municipality units from 1997 through 2017. It developed an economic performance model to incorporate energy-industry investment as an aggregate production growth input. The core empirical findings are as follows. Firstly, the energy-industry investment and economic performance induced a positive and statistically significant mutual influence, manifested from their parameter estimates. Secondly, a bilateral causal bond is unveiled between energy-industry investment and economic performance based on the Dumitrescu-Hurlin technique, confirming the feedback hypothesis of a causal bond between the two variables. The results are consistent across the under-analysis panels in terms of the nature of the influence; however, the induced degrees of their influence significantly differed across the regional development levels. The intensity of the direct influence of energy-industry investment (0.049) on economic performance lags behind the feedback influence of economic performance (1.069) on energy-industry investment. Additionally, considerable heterogeneities are detected in influence intensities across the regional panels. Eastern China (region of high development) displayed the most substantial direct (0.058) and feedback influence (1.193), while western China manifested the least substantial intensity of direct (0.030) and feedback influence (0.836). After that, the central China (region of medium development) demonstrated a medium intensity of direct (0.037) and feedback influence (0.996). Finally, among other regressors, human capital, physical capital, inflation rate, and trade presented a positive and significant influence on economic performance. In contrast, the foreign direct investment significantly influenced the economic performance only in the eastern China. The empirical findings implied that energy-industry investment might serve as a vital driver of economic performance, with the most significant role in the highly developed regions and the least significant in the low developed regions, given the important explanatory variables. Based on empirical findings, policies are suggested.

Abstract The electricity sector in the Galapagos Islands is heavily dependent on fossil fuels for electricity generation but only a few renewable sources are used for such a purpose in this archipelago. Therefore, this work aims to present the current status of its electricity sector and show estimates for the upcoming years, discuss exploited and unexploited renewable resources, and put forward a proposal for a hybrid system to generate renewable power. Currently, thermoelectric power plants run on diesel are the main source of electricity generation in the archipelago due to supplying 85% of the total power installed in the islands (27.6 MW), and the remaining 15% (7.3 MW) is from renewable sources, such as the wind (10.8%), sun (4.1%), and vegetable oils (0.1%). In the upcoming years, there will be a growth in the use of these renewable resources if an additional capacity of 28.5 MW is installed. The gross electric output generated by this sector in the last twelve months (March 2017 - February 2018) was 53.80 GWh, which has allowed a return on revenues of over five million dollars at an average cost of US $0.10/kWh. Based on the existing renewable resources in the Galapagos Islands, the implementation of a hybrid solar/biogas power generation system is an attractive alternative to support the zero-fossil fuel initiative, diversify the energy matrix, and promote local development. However, sustainable development policies, energy efficiency programs and foreign investment funds to carry out new projects are required to ensure a bright future for the electricity sector in the Galapagos.

Abstract The objective of this research is to examine the relationship between real per capita output and carbon dioxide emissions, both globally and by groups of countries. We used panel data from 151 countries for the period 1980–2016. The countries are classified according to income levels using the World Bank Atlas Method. The argument behind this classification is that the strength of the relationship between the two variables differs according to the income levels of countries. Based on the theoretical framework of the Kuznets environmental curve, we found that there is a strong U-shaped relationship between the two variables in middle-high and low income countries. The hypothesis of the Kuznets environmental curve holds true in high-income and middle-high income countries. The inclusion of additional covariants shows that urbanization has a positive and significant relationship with carbon dioxide emissions middle-high and middle-low income countries. Energy consumption and manufacturing have a positive and statistically significant relationship with carbon dioxide emissions in all the groups of countries. A possible implication of economic policy derived from our research is that incentives to production should focus on activities that use environmentally friendly technologies to limit the irreversible damage caused by contamination.