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Summary Past climatic fluctuations have played a major role in shaping the current plant biodiversity. Although harbouring an exceptional biota, oceanic islands have received little attention in studies on species demographic history and past vegetation patterns. We investigated the impact of past climatic changes on the effective population size of a tree (Coffea mauritiana) that is endemic to Reunion Island, located in the south‐western Indian Ocean (SWIO). Demographic changes were inferred using summary statistics calculated from genomic data. Using ecological niche modelling and the current distribution of genetic diversity, the paleodistribution of the species was also assessed. A reduction in the effective population size of C. mauritiana during the last glaciation maximum was inferred. The distribution of the species was reduced on the western side of the island, due to low rainfall. It appeared that a major reduction in rainfall and a slight temperature decrease prevailed in the SWIO. Our findings indicated that analyses on the current patterns of intraspecific genetic variations can efficiently contribute to past climatic changes characterisation in remote islands. Identifying area with higher resilience in oceanic islands could provide guidance in forest management and conservation faced to the global climate change.

Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.

AbstractEcologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90‐year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide‐ranging species, at the slow end of the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for population regulation and the evolution of life histories.

Predicting likely species responses to an alteration of their local environment is key to decision‐making in resource management, ecosystem restoration and biodiversity conservation practice in the face of global human‐induced habitat disturbance. This is especially true for forest trees which are a dominant life form on Earth and play a central role in supporting diverse communities and structuring a wide range of ecosystems. In Europe, it is expected that most forest tree species will not be able to migrate North fast enough to follow the estimated temperature isocline shift given current predictions for rapid climate warming. In this context, a topical question for forest genetics research is to quantify the ability for tree species to adapt locally to strongly altered environmental conditions (Kremer et al. ). Identifying environmental factors driving local adaptation is, however, a major challenge for evolutionary biology and ecology in general but is particularly difficult in trees given their large individual and population size and long generation time. Empirical evaluation of local adaptation in trees has traditionally relied on fastidious long‐term common garden experiments (provenance trials) now supplemented by reference genome sequence analysis for a handful of economically valuable species. However, such resources have been lacking for most tree species despite their ecological importance in supporting whole ecosystems. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, De Kort et al. () provide original and convincing empirical evidence of local adaptation to temperature in black alder, Alnus glutinosa L. Gaertn, a surprisingly understudied keystone species supporting riparian ecosystems. Here, De Kort et al. () use an innovative empirical approach complementing state‐of‐the‐art landscape genomics analysis of A. glutinosa populations sampled in natura across a regional climate gradient with phenotypic trait assessment in a common garden experiment (Fig. ). By combining the two methods, De Kort et al. () were able to detect unequivocal association between temperature and phenotypic traits such as leaf size as well as with genetic loci putatively under divergent selection for temperature. The research by De Kort et al. () provides valuable insight into adaptive response to temperature variation for an ecologically important species and demonstrates the usefulness of an integrated approach for empirical evaluation of local adaptation in nonmodel species (Sork et al. ).

Ambitious international targets are being developed to protect and restore biodiversity under the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the European Union's Green Deal. Yet, the land system consequences of meeting such targets are unclear, as multiple pathways may be able to deliver on the set targets. This paper introduces a novel scenario approach assessing the plural implementations of these targets. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) developed by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services aims to illustrate the different, positive ways in which society can value nature. It therefore offers a lens through which the spatial implementation of sustainability targets may be envisioned. We used CLUMondo, a spatially explicit model, to simulate plural land system scenarios for Europe for 2050. The model builds on current land system representations of Europe and explores how and where sustainability targets can be implemented under projected population trends and commodity demands. We created three different scenarios in which the sustainability targets are met, each representing an alternative, normative view on nature as represented by the NFF, favoring land systems providing strong climate regulation (Nature for Society), species conservation (Nature for Nature), or agricultural heritage features (Nature as Culture). Our results show that, irrespective of the NFF view, meeting sustainability targets will require European land systems to drastically change, as natural grasslands and forests are forecast to expand while productive areas are projected to undergo a dual intensification and diversification trajectory. Despite each NFF perspective showcasing a similar direction of change, 20% of Europe's land area will differ based on the adopted NFF perspective, with hotspots of disagreement identified in eastern and western Europe. These simulations go beyond existing scenario approaches by not only depicting broad societal developments for Europe, but also by quantifying the land system synergies and trade-offs associated with alternative, archetypal, interpretations and values of how nature may be managed for sustainability. This quantification exemplifies a means towards constructive dialogue, on the one hand by acknowledging areas of contention, and bringing such issues to the fore, and on the other by highlighting points of convergence in a vision for a sustainable Europe.

Understanding the genetic bases underlying climate adaptation is a key element to predict the potential of species to face climate warming. Although substantial climate variation is observed at a micro-geographic scale, most genomic maps of climate adaptation have been established at broader geographical scales. Here, by using a Pool-Seq approach combined with a Bayesian hierarchical model that control for confounding by population structure, we performed a genome-environment association (GEA) analysis to investigate the genetic basis of adaptation to six climate variables in 168 natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana distributed in south-west of France. Climate variation among the 168 populations represented up to 24% of climate variation among 521 European locations where A. thaliana inhabits. We identified neat and strong peaks of association, with most of the associated SNPs being significantly enriched in likely functional variants and/or in the extreme tail of genetic differentiation among populations. Furthermore, genes involved in transcriptional mechanisms appear predominant in plant functions associated with local climate adaptation. Globally, our results suggest that climate adaptation is an important driver of genomic variation in A. thaliana at a small spatial scale and mainly involves genome-wide changes in fundamental mechanisms of gene regulation. The identification of climate-adaptive genetic loci at a micro-geographic scale also highlights the importance to include within-species genetic diversity in ecological niche models for projecting potential species distributional shifts over short geographic distances.