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AbstractThe potential impacts of future climate scenarios on water balance and flow regime are presented and discussed for a temporary river system in southern Italy. Different climate projections for the future (2030–2059) and the recent conditions (1980–2009) were investigated. A hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate water balance at the basin scale and streamflow in a number of river sections under various climate change scenarios, based on different combinations of global and regional models (global circulation models and regional climate models). The impact on water balance components was quantified at the basin and subbasin levels as deviation from the baseline (1980–2009), and the flow regime alteration under changing climate was estimated using a number of hydrological indicators. An increase in mean temperature for all months between 0.5–2.4 °C and a reduction in precipitation (by 4–7%) was predicted for the future. As a consequence, a decline of blue water (7–18%) and total water yield (11–28%) was estimated. Although the river type classification remains unvaried, the flow regime distinctly moves towards drier conditions and the divergence from the current status increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I‐D (ie, intermittent‐dry) and E (ephemeral). Hydrological indicators showed a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations, an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of extreme low flow conditions. A reduction of snowfall in the mountainous part of the basin and an increase in potential evapotranspiration was also estimated (4–4.4%). Finally, the paper analyses the implications of the climate change for river ecosystems and for River Basin Management Planning. The defined quantitative estimates of water balance alteration could support the identification of priorities that should be addressed in upcoming years to set water‐saving actions.

Abstract In this paper, a medium-term load forecasting model is proposed, intended to be used for the extrapolation of loads containing a small proportion of air conditioners. The main feature of the proposed model is the decomposition of weekly load observations into two independent components: trend line and seasonal variations. The trend line is described by the combination of the polynomial regression and the first-order autoregressive model. The parameters of this model are estimated with the aid of the generalized least-squares method. The seasonal component is modeled via a discrete model, where the weather sensitive cycle is separated from the weather insensitive one. A linear regression model is further proposed in order to associate weather sensitive variations with the exogenous weather variable (temperature). This procedure enabled a simple and efficient convolution of all load components into a single forecasting model. The whole methodology is verified on a real-life example of the peak-load consumption within the power system of former Yugoslavia.

Artículos en revistas In this paper we apply stochastic dual dynamic programming decomposition to a nonconvex multistage stochastic hydrothermal model where the nonlinear water head effects on production and the nonlinear dependence between the reservoir head and the reservoir volume are modeled. The nonconvex constraints that represent the production function of a hydro plant are approximated by McCormick envelopes. These constraints are split into smaller regions and the McCormick envelopes are used for each region. We use binary variables for this disjunctive programming approach and solve the problem with a decomposition method. We resort to a variant of the L-shaped method for solving the MIP subproblem with binary variables at any stage inside the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. A realistic large-scale case study is presented. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Artículos en revistas Liberalization policies, the challenges of integrating distributed generation resources, and the recent flattening of electricity demand due to the economic crisis and technological change have led to lower returns for European electricity suppliers. Innovative and sustainable business models are needed to serve electricity customers while reflecting the operational needs of the system and maintaining supplier financial viability. This paper describes a novel model of Integrated Energy Services that encompasses distributed generation (DG) and demand response (DR) resources for industrial customers. We further reflect on some of the market opportunities and regulatory drivers for the development of similar schemes across Europe. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The development of heat transfer fluids (HTF) and heat storage materials (HSM) is crucial to design concentrating solar plant (CSP). Binary alkaline nitrate mixtures are currently used as sensible thermal energy storage materials. However, multi-component nitrate/nitrite systems were proposed as possible better candidates. In particular, ternaries mixtures containing sodium, potassium, and calcium are extremely promising as thermal fluids, given their reduced toxicity and greater cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, very few data are present in the scientific literature regarding the correspondent phase diagram, and only the properties of specific compositions are reported. For this reason, a regular solution model was developed and employed in this work, and validated by comparing the simulation results with experimentally obtained phase change values. In particular, given that the common calorimetric techniques are impracticable for detecting the transition temperatures of calcium containing nitrate mixtur...

<div class="section abstract"><div class="htmlview paragraph">The introduction of new light-duty vehicle emission limits to comply under real driving conditions (RDE) is pushing the diesel engine manufacturers to identify and improve the technologies and strategies for further emission reduction. The latest technology advancements on the after-treatment systems have permitted to achieve very low emission conformity factors over the RDE, and therefore, the biggest challenge of the diesel engine development is maintaining its competitiveness in the trade-off “CO₂-system cost” in comparison to other propulsion systems. In this regard, diesel engines can continue to play an important role, in the short-medium term, to enable cost-effective compliance of CO₂-fleet emission targets, either in conventional or hybrid propulsion systems configuration. This is especially true for large-size cars, SUVs and light commercial vehicles.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">In this framework, a comprehensive approach covering the whole powertrain is of primary importance in order to simultaneously meet the performance, efficiency, noise and emission targets, and therefore, further development of the combustion system design and injection system represent important levers for additional improvements. For this purpose, a dedicated 0.5 dm³ single-cylinder engine has been developed and equipped with, a state-of-the-art Euro 6 combustion system, and an advanced common rail fuel injection system (FIS) offering higher flexibility in terms of injection strategy and higher quantity accuracy. Three injector nozzles with different hydraulic flow rates (HF) have been selected and employed for the overall combustion process optimization.</div><div class="htmlview paragraph">The optimization has been performed by means of an extensive DoE-based test campaign in which the engine and FIS operating parameters have been parametrized with the aim to carry out a proper combination in terms of HF and injection strategy. The results at partial load conditions evidence significant advantages in applying an advanced injection pattern, while the HF reduction can significantly improve the smoke emission and combustion noise without fuel consumption penalties. Therefore, a proper combination and optimization of the HF and injection strategy can provide low noise and engine-out smoke while maintaining the rated power performance targets.</div></div>

A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) with focus on carbon footprint, followed by Life Cycle Costing (LCC) of municipal solid waste (MSW) management were conducted in a residential area of a medium-sized European city of 80,000 inhabitants. The initial results showed high environmental impacts and lack of economic sustainability, due to the high amounts of waste landfilled, the low extent of separate collection, low performance of mechanical-biological treatment as well as absence from alternatives to landfilling of non-recyclable materials. Taking this result as a baseline scenario, three improvement.s were tested with the aim of turning the carbon footprint of the local MSW management system into a neutral value: (i) increased separate collection of recyclables, (ii) enhanced biogas production and (iii) refuse-derived fuel (RDF) production. Successively adding the improvements, three alternative improved scenarios were defined, until reaching a negative carbon footprint, meaning that an optimised system would avoid GHG emissions. The proposed changes were sufficient to achieve carbon neutrality, as well as reduce overall environmental impacts, but were not enough for achieving economic sustainability due to the great influence of collection costs, especially for separate collection. It was concluded that by using an adequate combination of several treatment options and increasing the separate collection of recyclable materials it is possible to turn MSW management into a carbon neutral activity as well as improve its economic balance.

The aim of the paper is to study the influence of the power transformer on signal transmission in the case of a power line communication (PLC) system in a overhead Medium Voltage (MV) power network. A model of the PLC system was carried out by means of the Simulink® software. A distributed parameter MV overhead line, two power transformers, the signal coupling interface of a ST7540 FSK powerline transceiver were included in the model. The performances of the complete PLC communication system are evaluated for different line lengths by means of the attenuation computed as ratio between the received and transmitted voltage signals. © 2011 IEEE.