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• Premise of the study: Climate change is associated with phenological shifts in an increasing number of organisms worldwide. However, accurate estimates of these shifts are dependent on long‐term data sets that include phenological observations from before annual average temperatures began to rise.• Methods: We compared the first flowering times of native prairie plants between 2007 and 2010 with historical data recorded by O. A. Stevens from 1910 to 1961. By merging climate variable data from the same time period, it also was possible to correlate first flowering dates with associated climate variables.• Key results: Over the past 100 years, spring temperatures in the Red River Valley near Fargo, North Dakota, USA, have increased, and growing seasons have lengthened significantly. Seventy‐five percent of the 178 species observed by Stevens had flowering times that were sensitive to at least one variable related to temperature or precipitation. Over the past 4 yr, 5% to 17% of the species observed have significantly shifted their first flowering time either earlier or later relative to the previous century.• Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that as spring temperatures in the northern Great Plains have increased and the growing season has lengthened, some spring flowering species have advanced their first flowering time, some fall species have delayed their first flowering, and some species have not changed. Given the importance of flowering timing for reproductive success, the changing climate in the Great Plains is expected to have long‐term ecological and evolutionary consequences for native plant species.

AbstractThe adoption of a bioenergy crop is affected by various factors, including but not limited to the characteristics of farmers, farm economics, market forces, and physical environment. This study develops a spatially explicit agent‐based model for ascertaining the adoption rate of carinata (Brassica carinata) among the farmers in the Little River Experimental Watershed located in the southern state of Georgia in the United States. Each farmer's adoption behavior is modeled using the profitability difference between traditional crop rotations (with and without carinata at different contract prices), the adoption rate of neighboring farmers, and their land allocation decisions from managing a risky portfolio of enterprises. Carinata production in the winter season once every 3 years has no conflict with the most profitable and popular traditional row crop rotations, such as cotton‐cotton‐cotton and cotton‐cotton‐peanut, to a larger extent. The results show that 28% and 85% of farmers in the watershed will adopt carinata after 33 years at a contract price of $13/bushel (bu) under two different assumptions of low (2.5%) and high (5%) initial neighborhood adoption rates. The proportions of land allocated to carinata to the total farmland under field crops are 38% and 85% after 33 years under the same low and high neighborhood adoption rates, respectively. Our results suggest that fixing the appropriate contract price of carinata will bring additional profits to farmers without any significant foreseeable agronomic risks, thereby increasing the adoption rate of carinata at a regional level.

AbstractIn Laurentian Great Lakes coastal wetlands (GLCWs), dominant emergent invasive plants are expanding their ranges and compromising the unique habitat and ecosystem service values that these ecosystems provide. Herbiciding and burning to control invasive plants have not been effective in part because neither strategy addresses the most common root cause of invasion, nutrient enrichment. Mechanical harvesting is an alternative approach that removes tissue‐bound phosphorus and nitrogen and can increase wetland plant diversity and aquatic connectivity between wetland and lacustrine systems. In this study, we used data from three years of Great Lakes‐wide wetland plant surveys, published literature, and bioenergy analyses to quantify the overall areal extent of GLCWs, the extent and biomass of the three most dominant invasive plants, the pools of nitrogen and phosphorus contained within their biomass, and the potential for harvesting this biomass to remediate nutrient runoff and produce renewable energy. Of the approximately 212,000 ha of GLCWs, three invasive plants (invasive cattail, common reed, and reed canary grass) dominated 76,825 ha (36%). The coastal wetlands of Lake Ontario exhibited the highest proportion of invasive dominance (57%) of any of the Great Lakes, primarily from cattail. A single growing season's biomass of these invasive plants across all GLCWs was estimated at 659,545 metric tons: 163,228 metric tons of reed canary grass, 270,474 metric tons of common reed, and 225,843 metric tons of invasive cattail, and estimated to contain 10,805 and 1144 metric tons of nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively. A one‐time harvest and utilization for energy of this biomass would provide the gross equivalent of 1.8 million barrels of oil if combusted, or 0.9 million barrels of oil if converted to biogas in an anaerobic digester. We discuss the potential for mitigating non‐point source nutrient pollution with invasive wetland plant removal, and other potential uses for the harvested biomass, including compost and direct application to agricultural soils. Finally, we describe the research and adaptive management program we have built around this concept, and point to current limitations to the implementation of large‐scale invasive plant harvesting.

Current food systems are challenged by relying on a few input-intensive, staple crops. The prioritization of yield and the loss of diversity during the recent history of domestication has created contemporary crops and cropping systems that are ecologically unsustainable, vulnerable to climate change, nutrient poor, and socially inequitable. For decades, scientists have proposed diversity as a solution to address these challenges to global food security. Here, we outline the possibilities for a new era of crop domestication, focused on broadening the palette of crop diversity, that engages and benefits the three elements of domestication: crops, ecosystems, and humans. We explore how the suite of tools and technologies at hand can be applied to renew diversity in existing crops, improve underutilized crops, and domesticate new crops to bolster genetic, agroecosystem, and food system diversity. Implementing the new era of domestication requires that researchers, funders, and policymakers boldly invest in basic and translational research. Humans need more diverse food systems in the Anthropocene—the process of domestication can help build them.

SYNOPSIS In Swaziland policies to alleviate fuelwood shortages have been low on the list of development priorities, as much of the land has extensive bush and tree cover. There are, however, major social and geographical imbalances in biomass resource supply—some areas of Swazi Nation Land are barren due to increasing population pressure and the subsequent demand for fuelwood. This paper will show, in detail, the methodology for the survey which was carried out in Swaziland to investigate the importance of accessibility in linking potential supply to demand. Physical location, land tenure and management practices are generally recognised as important factors to take into consideration when converting potential resources into realistic amounts of fuelwood supply. Guesswork, however, is often used to estimate the impacts of these factors on biomass supplies. A nation-wide study was made in order to obtain more information on the accessibility of resources on privately owned land; results of a household surv...

Natural ecosystems benefit human communities by providing ecosystem services such as water purification and crop pollination. Mapping ecosystem service values has become popular, but most are static snapshots of average value. Estimating instead the economic impacts of specific ecosystem changes can better inform typical resource decisions. Here we develop an approach to mapping marginal values, those resulting from the next unit of ecosystem change, across landscapes. We demonstrate the approach with a recent model of crop pollination services in Costa Rica, simulating deforestation events to predict resulting marginal changes in pollination services to coffee farms. We find that marginal losses from deforestation vary from zero to US$700/ha across the landscape. Financial risks for farmers from these losses and marginal benefits of forest restoration show similar spatial variation. Marginal values are concentrated in relatively few forest parcels not identified using average value. These parcels lack substitutes: nearby forest parcels that can supply services in the event of loss. Indeed, the marginal value of forest parcels declines exponentially with the density of surrounding forest cover. The approach we develop is applicable to any ecosystem service. Combined with information on costs, it can help target conservation or restoration efforts to optimize benefits to people and biodiversity.

Recurrent cycles of climatic change during the Quaternary period have dramatically affected the population genetic structure of many species. We reconstruct the recent demographic history of the coyote ( Canis latrans ) through the use of Bayesian techniques to examine the effects of Late Quaternary climatic perturbations on the genetic structure of a highly mobile generalist species. Our analysis reveals a lack of phylogeographic structure throughout the range but past population size changes correlated with climatic changes. We conclude that even generalist carnivorous species are very susceptible to environmental changes associated with climatic perturbations. This effect may be enhanced in coyotes by interspecific competition with larger carnivores.

Summary In the last decade, the ocean has absorbed a quarter of the Earth’s greenhouse gas emissions through the carbon (C) cycle, a naturally occurring process. Aspects of the ocean C cycle are now being incorporated into climate change mitigation and adaptation plans. Currently, too little is known about marine vertebrate C functions for their inclusion in policies. Fortunately, marine vertebrate biology, behavior, and ecology through the lens of C and nutrient cycling and flux is an emerging area of research that is rich in existing data. This review uses literature and trusted data sources to describe marine vertebrate C interactions, provides quantification where possible, and highlights knowledge gaps. Implications of better understanding the integral functions of marine vertebrates in the ocean C cycle include the need for consideration of these functions both in policies on nature-based climate change mitigation and adaptation, and in management of marine vertebrate populations.