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This article examines land-use, market and welfare implications of lignocellulosic bioethanol production in Hawaii to satisfy 10% and 20% of the State's gasoline demand in line with the State's ethanol blending mandate and Alternative Fuels Standard (AFS). A static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to evaluate four alternative support mechanisms for bioethanol. Namely: (i) a federal blending tax credit, (ii) a long-term purchase contract, (iii) a state production subsidy financed by a lump-sum tax and (iv) a state production subsidy financed by an ad valorem gasoline tax. We find that because Hawaii-produced bioethanol is relatively costly, all scenarios are welfare reducing for Hawaii residents: estimated between -0.14% and -0.32%. Unsurprisingly, Hawaii.s economy and its residents fair best under the federal blending tax credit scenario, with a positive impact to gross state product of $49 million. Otherwise, impacts to gross state product are negative (up to -$63 million). We additionally find that Hawaii-based bioethanol is not likely to offer substantial greenhouse gas emissions savings in comparison to imported biofuel, and as such the policy cost per tonne of emissions displaced ranges between $130 to $2,100/tonne of CO2e. The policies serve to increase the value of agricultural lands, where we estimate that the value of pasture land could increase as much as 150% in the 20% AFS scenario.

Biomass plays an important role in the world primary energy supplies, currently providing ∼14% of the world's primary energy needs and being the fourth largest contributor following coal, oil and natural gas. Over the past decade, domestic biomass heating has received more governmental and public supports than ever before in many developed countries, such as the UK. Although biomass combustion releases some combustion pollutants, biomass is renewable and produces little net CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. Owing to the low sulphur and low nitrogen contents of many biomass materials, substituting biomass for fossil fuels, particularly coal, can reduce SO x and NO x emissions. This study investigated flue gas emissions, particularly carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides, of a domestic biomass boiler under various operating conditions. The biomass boiler used in this study satisfies the current EU regulation (EN 303-05) on emissions of domestic biomass boilers. Emissions of the boiler had been measured not only under normal combustion conditions, but also under 'idle' combustion conditions when the boiler was not in but was ready for full operation. The experimental results are analysed and presented in this paper. Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning-by-doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are introduction or expansion constraints for a new technology. Finally, supporting existing energy technologies only, may lead to technology lock-in, and the impacts of lock-in increase with the learning potential of new technologies as well as the possibilities for early entry and thight carbon constraints.

This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps – one is climate-change-induced and one is civil-war-induced – and the two poverty traps may reinforce one another. The model is calibrated to sub-Saharan Africa and a double Monte Carlo analysis is conducted in order to account for both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity. Although the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) is used as the baseline, thus assuming rapid economic growth in Africa and convergence of African living standards to the rest of the world, the impacts of civil war and climate change (ignored in SRES) are sufficiently strong to keep a number of countries in Africa in deep poverty with a high probability.

In the UK electricity market, generators are obliged to produce part of their electricity with renewable energy resources in accordance with the Renewable Obligation Order. Since 2009 technology banding has been added, meaning that different technologies are rewarded with a different number of certificates. We analyze these two different renewable obligation policies in a mathematical representation of an electricity market with random availabilities of renewable generation outputs and random electricity demand. We also present another, alternative, banding policy. We provide revenue adequate pricing schemes for the three obligation policies. We carry out a simulation study via sampling. A key finding is that the UK banding policy cannot guarantee that the original obligation target is met, hence potentially resulting in more pollution. Our alternative provides a way to make sure that the target is met while supporting less established technologies, but it comes with a significantly higher consumer price. Furthermore, as an undesirable side effect, we observe that a cost reduction in a technology with a high banding (namely offshore wind) leads to more CO2 emissions under the UK banding policy and to higher consumer prices under the alternative banding policy.

Activities involving land use, land-use change,forestry, and agriculture (LUCF) can help reducegreenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphereby increasing biotic carbon storage, by decreasing GHGemissions, and by producing biomass as a substitutefor fossil fuels. Potential activities includereducing rates of deforestation, increasing landdevoted to forest plantations, regenerating secondaryforest, agroforestry, improving the management offorests and agricultural areas; and producing energycrops.Policymakers debating the inclusion of a variety ofLUCF activities in the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol need to consider themagnitude of the carbon contribution these activitiescould make. Existing estimates of the cumulative GHGoffset potential of LUCF activities often take aglobal or regional approach. In contrast, land-usedecisions are usually made at the local level anddepend on many factors including productive capacityof the land, financial considerations of thelandowner, and environmental concerns. Estimates ofGHG offset potential made at a local, or at mostcountry, level that incorporate these factors may belower, as well as more useful for policy analyses,than global or large regional estimates. Whilecountry-level estimates exist for forestry activities,similar estimates utilizing local information need tobe generated for agricultural activities and biofuels,as well as for the cumulative potential of all LUCFactivities in a particular location.

Conventional wisdom suggests that energy efficiency (EE) policies are beneficial because they induce investments that pay for themselves and lead to emissions reductions. However, this belief is primarily based on projections from engineering models. This paper reports on the results of an experimental evaluation of the nation’s largest residential EE program conducted on a sample of more than 30,000 households. The findings suggest that the upfront investment costs are about twice the actual energy savings. Further, the model-projected savings are roughly 2.5 times the actual savings. While this might be attributed to the “rebound” effect – when demand for energy end uses increases as a result of greater efficiency – the paper fails to find evidence of significantly higher indoor temperatures at weatherized homes. Even when accounting for the broader societal benefits of energy efficiency investments, the costs still substantially outweigh the benefits; the average rate of return is approximately -9.5% annually.

A variety of renewable electricity policies to promote investment in wind, solar, and other types of renewable generators exist across the United States. The federal renewable energy investment tax credit, the federal renewable energy production tax credit, and state renewable portfolio standards are among the most notable. Whether the benefits of promoting new technology and reducing pollution emissions from the power sector justify these policies’ costs has been the subject of considerable debate. We argue in this paper that the debate is misguided because it does not consider two important interactions between renewable electricity generators and the rest of the power system. First, the value of electricity from a renewable generators depends on the generation and investment it displaces. Second, a large increase in renewable generation can reduce electricity prices, increasing consumption and emissions from fossil generators, and offsetting some of the environmental benefits of the policies. Two policy conclusions follow. First, existing renewable electricity policies can be redesigned to promote investment in the highest-value generators, which can greatly reduce the cost of achieving a given emissions reduction. Second, subsidies financed out of general tax revenue reduce emissions less than subsidies financed by charges to electricity consumers.

Abstract Using a complicated stepped analysis, Ewing and Rong study the impact of sprawl on household energy use. They argue that dispersed land use brings about larger houses and more detached units, which consume more energy than the smaller houses and attached units typical of more compact communities. This comment suggests that their conclusions are intuitive and obvious, but that their complex methodology linking three unrelated data sets renders their quantitative conclusions suspect. Further, a simple engineering analysis can show more meaningful results, sprawl is more likely to affect energy use through increased vehicle miles traveled than house size or type, and household energy use can be mitigated by increasing the efficiency of the building envelope, heating/cooling system, appliances, and lighting. Still, combining the effects of compact urban development with the effects of energy‐efficient vehicles and housing unit design can be a real winner in our quest for more energy‐efficient communi...

A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.