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Abstract The convergence characteristics of two Monte Carlo models are investigated in this paper. These two models or their variations have been used by the electric power industry. Model 1 is based on the random sampling of generator and transmission line status for each hour. Model 2 advances the generation and transmission using the next-event approach. Mathematical analysis and system studies indicate that model 2 converges slower than model 1. The simulation time for model 2 is generally more than twice the mean duration of loss of load. The CPU time per year of simulation is shorter for model 2. However, the total CPU time for model 2 is much longer than for model 1.

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution system. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of load and PV power injections. The sampling-based method estimates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-bus distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.

The Houston-Dallas (I-45) corridor is the busiest route among 18 traffic corridors in Texas, USA. The expected population growth and the surge in passenger mobility may result in a significant impact on the regional environment. This study uses a life cycle framework to predict and evaluate the net changes of environmental impact associated with the potential development of a high-speed rail (HSR) System along the I-45 corridor through its life cycle. The environmental impact is estimated in terms of CO2 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per vehicle/passenger-kilometers traveled (V/PKT) using life cycle assessment. The analyses are performed referring to the Ecoinvent 3.4 inventory database through the phases: material extraction and processing, infrastructure construction, vehicle manufacturing, system operation, and end of life. The environmental benefit is evaluated by comparing the potential development of the HSR system with those of the existing transportation systems. The vehicle component, especially operation and maintenance of vehicles, is the primary contributor to the total global warming potential with about 93% of the life cycle GHG emissions. For the infrastructure component, 56.76% of GHG emissions result from the material extraction and processing phase (23.75 kgCO2eq/VKT). Various life cycle emissions of HSR except PM are significantly lower than for passenger cars.

ABSTRACTThe California generation fleet manages the existing variability and uncertainty in the demand for electric power (load). When wind power is added, the dispatchable generators manage the variability and uncertainty of the net load (load minus wind power). The variability and uncertainty of the load and the net load are compared when 8790 MW of wind power are added to the California power system, a level expected when California achieves its 33% renewable portfolio standard, using a data set of 26,296 h of synchronous historic load and modeled historic wind power output. Variability was calculated as the rate of change in power generated by wind farms or consumed by the load from 1 h to the next (MW/h). Uncertainty was calculated as the 1 h ahead forecast error [MW] of the wind power or of the load. The data show that wind power adds no additional variability than is already present in the load variability. However, wind power adds additional uncertainty through increased forecast errors in the net load compared with the load. Forecast errors in the net load increase 18.7% for negative forecast errors (actual less than forecast) and 5.4% for positive forecast errors (actual greater than forecast). The increase in negative forecast errors occurs only during the afternoon hours when negative load forecasts and positive wind forecasts are strongly correlated. Managing the integration of wind power in the California power system should focus on reducing wind power forecast uncertainty for wind ramp ups during the afternoon hours. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

Phasor-based frequency measurement techniques have very good steady-state performance, but their dynamic performance is not well documented. This paper analyzes a phasor-based frequency measurement method that considers the effect of dynamic frequency, and proposes a method to improve the dynamic performance of the phasor-based frequency measurements. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results of laboratory experiments are presented to show the performance of the proposed method compared to frequency measurements obtained from commercial phasor measurement units (PMUs).

Abstract In the present study, Loblolly pine biomass residue was converted to bio-oil in a two-step process, consisting of 1) fast pyrolysis in the presence of zeolite ZSM-5 as a catalyst to produce pyrolysis oil, 2) hydrogenation of pyrolysis oil using formic acid as the hydrogen source in presence of Ru/activated carbon catalyst. Pyrolysis oils were analyzed by 13C, 31P and HSQC-NMR and the results revealed that the zeolite-induced catalytic fast pyrolysis process led to effective demethoxylation, producing more catechol and p-hydroxy-phenyl hydroxyl groups in the bio-oils, resulting in a decrease in the methoxyl group content by about 85 % and rich aromatic structures in the pyrolysis oils. The properties of pyrolysis oil with and without zeolite were in the bio-oil range. Hydrogenated pyrolysis oil showed that 79 % of the aromatic protons are eliminated and 87 % of protons are aliphatic in nature, with no oxygen attached to the α-carbon.

A rich n-heptane/air mixture was burned in a flat flame burner in an inert environment, and the soot limits of stable one-stage flames were measured. With a small thin metal plate placed on the flame to suppress soot-containing cusps on the flamelets, the richest soot-free flame burned was with a mixture for which the equivalence ratio was 2.25. Hydrogen yield was, however, low. Extremely rich soot-free two-stage flames could be obtained, but they were unstable.

Optical behavior of spherical flames is investigated using both Schlieren and shadowgraph methods. A mathematical model has been developed to predict the intensity of refracted light beams interacting with a transient expanding thin flame. Experimental facilities have been built to visualize transient expanding spherical flames. The facilities include a cylindrical chamber with two end glasses for optical observation. Shadowgraph and Schlieren pictures of flame propagation have been taken using a high-speed charged coupled device camera. Experimental results are in very good agreement with those predicted by the theoretical model. Schlieren and shadowgraph techniques have also been used to view smooth, cracked and cellular flames; these techniques will be useful in future in studies to determine the stability of propagating flame.