• Energy Research
• 1. No poverty close
• 13. Climate action close
• US close
• GB close
• Energy Policy close

Abstract The housing growth programme could offer an opportunity for accelerating the deployment of decentralised renewable energy systems (DRES) in the UK. The Government hopes to leverage private sector investment into DRES as part of new housing projects. The aim of this paper is to assess whether current regulatory and funding frameworks are sufficient to achieve this. The question is explored by drawing on the experience of developers, local authorities, energy utilities and service companies operating in the largest housing growth region in the UK–Thames Gateway. Their experience suggests that the current low intervention approach will be insufficient to generate the shift required in both industries. In order to be more successful economic and regulatory instruments should focus on producers (house-builders and energy providers) rather than consumers (households). Tighter regulation is needed to ensure that producers have a responsibility to install DRES as part of new developments, to enable connection to the grid, to ensure a sustained financial return from investment and revenue is spent on the expansion of new renewable energy infrastructure. This regulatory framework must be under-pinned by substantial funds focused on producers. Greater intervention is needed if DRES is to be included in new housing development.

Abstract Wood use for residential space heating has become an important topic of study in the US Pacific northwest. This article presents wood use profiles, estimates on the amount of electricity (kWh) wood use displaces and reasons that house-holds use wood. The data indicate that many households can easily switch between wood and electricity for space heating. One conclusion is that utilities in this region should be cognizant of large possible swings in electricity demand resulting from changes in electricity prices and availability of wood. In general, wood use has the potential to complicate regional energy planning efforts to fashion cost-effective residential conservation programmes.

Abstract This paper provides the first estimates of China's global developmental finance institutions in general and China's policy bank lending to foreign governments for energy in particular. According to the China Global Energy Finance database, between 2000 and 2017, China Development Bank (CDB) and China Export-Import Bank (CHEXIM) provided $225.75 billion in overseas energy development finance. We find that: China's ‘policy banks’ and funds have doubled the availability of global development finance –and hold more assets than the major Western-backed MDBs operating in developing countries. With the onset of a new family of funds and multilateral development banks co-financed by China, China is poised to be the largest development lender in the world as Western-backed MDBs appear stagnated in their ability to increase their capital bases. China's global energy portfolio is heavily exposed to country, macroeconomic, climate, and social risks, however. To mitigate such risks and meet the broader sustainable development challenge for the 21st Century, China's development finance will need to shift the composition of its global energy lending in a significant manner.

The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change. Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing, communications, transport, energy, and agriculture. A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization, or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy. If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology, the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap.

A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

Abstract Among natural gas producing nations, there has been some concern about how the Asia Pacific will meet future demand for energy. We argue that natural gas, both regional and global, will play a vital role. Estimates of potential gas consumption in the region are analyzed and used to develop consensus projections to 2030. These consumption profiles are compared with gas supply estimates including indigenous, pipeline and LNG for the Asia Pacific market. From this analytical framework, we find that demand will be sufficiently large to accommodate supplies from diverse sources including North America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and the Asia Pacific itself. An important policy implication is that gas producing and consuming nations should benefit from promoting gas trade and not be concerned about a situation of potential lack of demand coupled with oversupply.

Abstract The United States (US) Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Mandatory Reporting Program (GHGRP) is designed to collect accurate and timely facility-level emissions data that might be used by policy makers to support sound climate policy decisions in the future. After reviewing the US Inventory and the expected improvements under GHGRP, we find that the benefits of GHGRP are minimal and quite possibly zero while the cost of implementation is relatively high, that the stated goal of reducing emissions uncertainty is not met by the program in its current form, and that the additional emissions data to be collected is likely not needed given the ongoing non-committal environment of US GHG regulation. Our review also highlights the need for EPA to make its US Inventory GHG models accessible to the public, which would enable a more thorough review of its assumptions and methods by the broader scientific community.

Abstract This paper provides an overview of economic issues involved in timing limitations on CO2 emissions from energy systems. It highlights issues relating to technology availability, development and diffusion, and the inertia of energy systems, as being particularly important. The paper sets this in the context of wider uncertainties surrounding the problem and briefly considers other aspects relevant to timing. The paper is stimulated by the debate in the USA about optimal abatement paths, in particular recent claims that it would be economically preferable to defer such abatement action, in favour of measures that support technology development but do not affect emission trends for many years. This paper categorizes the various economic issues involved and concludes that for each economic argument that has been advanced to justify deferring emission constraints, there are counter-vailing economic arguments that could be used in support of rapid near term emissions abatement. Rational policy lies between these extremes. A policy of deferring all emissions abatement exposes economic systems and industries, as well as the environment, to significantly greater costs and risks than those arising from a more balanced approach. Furthermore the modelling studies that have been used to justify deferring emissions abatement do so because they embody the economic factors favourable to delay and largely neglect the countervailing issues, to the point where their results have little relevance to the overall problem of timing emissions abatement.

How to set policy in the presence of uncertainty has been central in debates over climate policy. Concern about costs has motivated the proposal for a cap-and-trade program for carbon dioxide, with a "safety valve" that would mitigate against spikes in the cost of emission reductions by introducing additional emission allowances into the market when marginal costs rise above the specified allowance price level. We find two significant problems, both stemming from the asymmetry of an instrument that mitigates only against a price increase. One is that most important examples of price volatility in cap-and-trade programs have occurred not when prices spiked, but instead when allowance prices collapsed. Second, a single-sided safety valve may have unintended consequences for investment. We illustrate that a symmetric safety valve provides environmental and welfare improvements relative to the conventional one-sided approach.