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This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps – one is climate-change-induced and one is civil-war-induced – and the two poverty traps may reinforce one another. The model is calibrated to sub-Saharan Africa and a double Monte Carlo analysis is conducted in order to account for both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity. Although the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) is used as the baseline, thus assuming rapid economic growth in Africa and convergence of African living standards to the rest of the world, the impacts of civil war and climate change (ignored in SRES) are sufficiently strong to keep a number of countries in Africa in deep poverty with a high probability.

The operation of a building connects the building, its performance and its end-users. When a mismatch occurs between users' expectations and operations processes, then complaints can arise. The use of enhanced complaint handling processes is investigated to ascertain whether this can help diagnose performance problems. Two LEED Platinum-rated office buildings form the basis for a case study of the components that make up an enhanced complaint handling process. Some of the social dynamics of complaints in buildings are consequently discussed. It is found that an enhanced complaint handling approach could contribute to a form of ongoing commissioning that goes beyond primarily reactive or dismissive treatments of complaints. Le fonctionnement d'un immeuble etablit des rapports entre l'immeuble, ses performances et ses utilisateurs finaux. Lorsqu'un decalage se produit entre les attentes des utilisateurs et les processus d'exploitation, des plaintes peuvent alors s'elever. L'utilisation de processus ameliore...

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

We assessed the physical, chemical and toxicological characteristics of particulate emissions from four light-duty gasoline direct injection vehicles when operated over the LA92 driving cycle. Our results showed that particle mass and number emissions increased markedly during accelerations. For three of the four vehicles tested, particulate matter (PM) mass and particle number emissions were markedly higher during cold-start and the first few accelerations following the cold-start period than during the hot running and hot-start segments of the LA92 cycle. For one vehicle (which had the highest emissions overall) the hot-start and cold-start PM emissions were similar. Black carbon emissions were also much higher during the cold-start conditions, indicating severe fuel wetting leading to slow evaporation and pool burning, and subsequent soot formation. Particle number concentrations and black carbon emissions showed large reductions during the urban and hot-start phases of the test cycle. The oxidative potential of PM was quantified with both a chemical and a biological assay, and the gene expression impacts of the PM in a macrophage model with PCR (polymerase chain reaction) and ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) analyses. Inter- and intra-vehicle variability in oxidative potential per milligram of PM emitted was relatively low for both oxidative assays, suggesting that real-world emissions and exposure can be estimated with distance-normalized emission factors. The PCR response from signaling markers for oxidative stress (e.g., NOX1) was greater than from inflammatory, AhR (aryl hydrocarbon receptor), or MAPK (mitogen-activated protein kinase) signaling. Protein production associated with inflammation (tumor necrosis factor alpha-TNFα) and oxidative stress (HMOX-1) were quantified and displayed relatively high inter-vehicle variability, suggesting that these pathways may be activated by different PM components. Correlation of trace metal concentrations and oxidative potential suggests a role for small, insoluble particles in inducing oxidative stress.

A statement in this recently published paper makes a point that is largely at odds with the main point of the paper that is cited. Stating that higher air temperatures lead to greater evapotranspiration is an oversimplification; the true story is more complex. Although this is by no means central to the conclusions of the paper being commented on, we have demonstrated the danger in taking too literally the idea that air temperature determines potential evapotranspiration.

Climate change models are predicting increased frequency and severity of droughts in arid and semiarid environments, and these areas are responsible for much of the world's livestock production. Because cattle (Bos Taurus) grazing can impact the abundance, distribution, and ecological function of native plant and animal communities, it is important to understand how cattle might respond to increasingly arid conditions. Here, we evaluate changes in habitat selection by cattle across an 8-yr period as a function of rainfall and other environmental covariates. Using resource selection functions, we evaluated habitat selection based on 2 behaviors, stationary and mobile. Models revealed similarity in cattle habitat selection across years, with only modest changes in selection as a function of precipitation, despite marked seasonal and interannual differences in rainfall. Cattle preferred gentle slopes, forest edges, wet meadows, and areas near water as well as areas far from water on plateaus. Cattle avoided areas at intermediate distances from water, typically associated with steep slopes. As conditions became drier during the late season, cattle did not switch selection patterns but instead contracted their selection around water. Cattle also selected similar habitats whether they were mobile or stationary, possibly making microsite decisions therein. This consistent pattern of selection across years could be particularly problematic for riparian communities as climates become drier; however, it may also simplify cattle management, as range managers can focus vegetation monitoring efforts on riparian areas. Due to the uncertainty surrounding future climatic conditions, it is imperative that both range and wildlife managers develop long-term plans to continue managing these multiuse landscapes in an ecologically sustainable manner based on expected patterns of livestock grazing.

The developmental and behavioral effects of prenatal exposure to cocaine and/or ethanol were examined in rats. Pregnant rats received ethanol (E; 2 g/kg, b.i.d.) orally, cocaine (C; 6 mg/kg/day, IV), or both (C/E) on gestational days 8-20. Controls consisted of pair-fed (PF) and untreated (UNT) groups. Offspring were weighed and examined for developmental markers beginning postnatal day one (PD1). On PD21 pups were individually observed in an open-field following either an injection of cocaine (10 mg/kg, IP), an injection of saline, or no treatment. Drug-treated and PF dams ate less food and gained less weight than the UNT dams. C and E litters had slightly increased mortality rates. Pups from both the C and E groups appeared less sensitive to the locomotor stimulant effect of cocaine. Pups from the E group engaged in significantly less spontaneous stereotypic locomotion than UNT and PF pups, while male pups from the C group exhibited a decrease in spontaneous exploratory behavior. Thus, prenatal exposure to C or E altered spontaneous and/or cocaine-induced behavior in weanling-aged rats, while the C/E combination did not augment either effect.