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  • Energy Research
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/

    This paper surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil. Although oil was used much differently and was substantially less important economically in the nineteenth century than it is today, there are interesting parallels between events in that era and more recent developments. Key post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91, and the oil price spike of 2007-2008. Other more minor disturbances are also discussed, as are the economic downturns that followed each of the major postwar oil shocks.

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    https://doi.org/10.4324/978020...
    Part of book or chapter of book . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Research Papers in E...arrow_drop_down
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      https://doi.org/10.4324/978020...
      Part of book or chapter of book . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Clinton R. Shiells;

    Given the substantial rents involved in oil and gas trade and the incentives for noncooperative behavior Russia and Ukraine have chosen to deviate from standard tax considerations, which suggest the use of a destination-based value-added tax (VAT) regime. Oil and gas trade is a major source of Russian tax revenue, which is collected partly through an origin-based VAT on energy trade within the Commonwealth of Independent States. This paper shows that, if nondistorting taxes were unavailable, Ukraine would benefit by taxing away the pure profits of the domestic seller of natural gas imports from Russia. The paper also assesses the circumstances under which Ukraine would benefit from simultaneously providing a credit for Russian VAT payments by importers.

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    IMF Staff Papers
    Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer TDM
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      IMF Staff Papers
      Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Springer TDM
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    Authors: Yi Zhang;

    Using monthly data, this paper studies the cointegration between the real price of oil and the real effective exchange rate of US dollar allowing for structural breaks. Contrary to the conclusion from previous literature, this paper finds that the cointegration between the oil price and the value of US dollar does not significantly exist unless the effects of two structural breaks in the past, November 1986 and February 2005, are controlled for.

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    Authors: Christa Court; Randall W. Jackson;

    Although Input-Output (IO) models are widely accepted tools for regional scientists and economists alike, there are still many issues to confront during their application, including estimating impacts relative to future years, dynamic impacts, and the introduction of new technologies within economic systems. Oftentimes, especially within energy and environmental subject areas, applications call for not only the introduction of new technologies but also for forecasts of economic impacts that may take years, or even decades, to fully implement. Despite the static nature of the IO modeling framework, these types of situations can be handled successfully and in ways fully consistent with the principles underlying the framework. This paper describes such a methodology, developed in the context of an input-output application for the estimation of impacts associated with the introduction of new energy technologies over a twenty year time horizon, modeling new and existing fossil-fuel technology scenarios from inception through the year 2030. As a demonstration of the method, application results are presented and briefly discussed.

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    Authors: David I. Stern; Cutler J. Cleveland;

    Physical theory shows that energy is necessary for economic production and therefore growth but the mainstream theory of economic growth, except for specialized resource economics models, pays no attention to the role of energy. This paper reviews the relevant biophysical theory, mainstream and resource economics models of growth, the critiques of mainstream models, and the various mechanisms that can weaken the links between energy and growth. Finally we review the empirical literature that finds that energy used per unit of economic output has declined, but that this is to a large extent due to a shift from poorer quality fuels such as coal to the use of higher quality fuels, and especially electricity. Furthermore, time series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate and energy use Granger causes GDP when additional variables such as energy prices or other production inputs are included. As a result, prospects for further large reductions in energy intensity seem limited.

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    Authors: Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin; Muhammad Haseeb; Muhammad Azam; Rabiul Islam;

    The main purpose of this study is to examine the linkage among energy consumption (EC), foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development (FD) and trade for the selected ASEAN countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. After employing appropriate tests of stationarity, long-run-relationship and Granger causality test reveals that there exists significant long-run relationship among all explanatory variables namely FDI inflows, trade, FD and EC. The autoregressive distributed lag bound tests approach further confirms the long-run relationship among set of regressors. Results on Granger causality reveal that in the short-run unidirectional causality running from FDI inflows to EC, EC to FD, and EC to trade. Whereas, results also show that there exists bidirectional causality between trade and EC, EC and FDI, trade and FDI, EC and FD, trade and FD during the period under the study. The empirical results reveals that policy makers needs to formulate appropriate and prudent policy to encourage FDI inflows, improve financial sector development, expand exports volume and sustained energy supply, while keep in mind to achieve sustainable economic growth and development in the ASEAN region

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    Authors: Nikolay Aleksandrov; Raphael Espinoza;

    We study optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option appraoch. Extracting a barrel of oil is similar to exercising a call option and optimal strategies lead to deferring production when oil prices are low and when volatility is high. We sow that, in theory, the net present alue ofa country's oil reserves is increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production decisions are made conditional on oil prices. We also show that the marginal value ofaditional capacity is higher for countries with bigger resources and longer production horizons. We apply the model to Brazil and the U>A>E> in order to pin down two points of the global supply curve.

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    Authors: Amjad Ali; Sabila Khatoon; Muhammad Ather; Naila Akhtar;

    This study examines the short run and long relationship among carbon emission, energy consumption and economic growth in case of Pakistan for the time period 1980-2012. For this purpose we have employed Johansen co-integration approach and the results reveal that there exists long run relationship among energy, growth and environment (E-E-E) in Pakistan. It is found that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in long run but not in short run. Also there exists unidirectional causality between energy consumption to energy emission in Pakistan. Unidirectional causality also found between financial development and economic growth running from financial development to economic growth.

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    Authors: Muhammad Shahbaz; Smile Dube; Ilhan Ozturk; Abdul Jalil;

    This paper provides empirical evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Portugal by applying autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach from 1971 to 2008. In order to capture Portugal’s historical experience, demographic changes and international trade on carbon emissions, we augment the traditional income-emissions model with variables such as energy consumption, urbanization, and trade openness in time series framework. Empirical results confirm the evidence of EKC hypothesis in both the short-run and long-run. All variables carry the expected signs except trade openness. Despite the success of Portugal in containing CO2 emissions so far, it is important to note that in recent years, carbon emissions have risen. In order to comply with the 1992 Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions, there is need for policies that focus on the sectors responsible for CO2 emissions.

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    Authors: Cuma Bozkurt; Yusuf Akan;

    In recent years due to factors, such as increases in greenhouse and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, global warming and climate changes has become a major threat for all countries. So in order to prevent this increased environmental pollution and degradation CO2 emissions must be reduced. This study examines economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption relationship in Turkey by using cointegration test. For this purpose 1960-2010 periods taken and annual data of Gross Domestic Product (Y), Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO) and Energy Consumption (EC) are used. The obtained empirical results from this paper indicated that CO2 emissions effect negatively economic growth while energy consumption effect positively it.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/

    This paper surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil. Although oil was used much differently and was substantially less important economically in the nineteenth century than it is today, there are interesting parallels between events in that era and more recent developments. Key post-World-War-II oil shocks reviewed include the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, the OPEC oil embargo of 1973-1974, the Iranian revolution of 1978-1979, the Iran-Iraq War initiated in 1980, the first Persian Gulf War in 1990-91, and the oil price spike of 2007-2008. Other more minor disturbances are also discussed, as are the economic downturns that followed each of the major postwar oil shocks.

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    https://doi.org/10.4324/978020...
    Part of book or chapter of book . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://doi.org/10.4324/978020...
      Part of book or chapter of book . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Clinton R. Shiells;

    Given the substantial rents involved in oil and gas trade and the incentives for noncooperative behavior Russia and Ukraine have chosen to deviate from standard tax considerations, which suggest the use of a destination-based value-added tax (VAT) regime. Oil and gas trade is a major source of Russian tax revenue, which is collected partly through an origin-based VAT on energy trade within the Commonwealth of Independent States. This paper shows that, if nondistorting taxes were unavailable, Ukraine would benefit by taxing away the pure profits of the domestic seller of natural gas imports from Russia. The paper also assesses the circumstances under which Ukraine would benefit from simultaneously providing a credit for Russian VAT payments by importers.

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    IMF Staff Papers
    Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer TDM
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      IMF Staff Papers
      Article . 2005 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Springer TDM
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    Authors: Yi Zhang;

    Using monthly data, this paper studies the cointegration between the real price of oil and the real effective exchange rate of US dollar allowing for structural breaks. Contrary to the conclusion from previous literature, this paper finds that the cointegration between the oil price and the value of US dollar does not significantly exist unless the effects of two structural breaks in the past, November 1986 and February 2005, are controlled for.

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    Authors: Christa Court; Randall W. Jackson;

    Although Input-Output (IO) models are widely accepted tools for regional scientists and economists alike, there are still many issues to confront during their application, including estimating impacts relative to future years, dynamic impacts, and the introduction of new technologies within economic systems. Oftentimes, especially within energy and environmental subject areas, applications call for not only the introduction of new technologies but also for forecasts of economic impacts that may take years, or even decades, to fully implement. Despite the static nature of the IO modeling framework, these types of situations can be handled successfully and in ways fully consistent with the principles underlying the framework. This paper describes such a methodology, developed in the context of an input-output application for the estimation of impacts associated with the introduction of new energy technologies over a twenty year time horizon, modeling new and existing fossil-fuel technology scenarios from inception through the year 2030. As a demonstration of the method, application results are presented and briefly discussed.

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    Authors: David I. Stern; Cutler J. Cleveland;

    Physical theory shows that energy is necessary for economic production and therefore growth but the mainstream theory of economic growth, except for specialized resource economics models, pays no attention to the role of energy. This paper reviews the relevant biophysical theory, mainstream and resource economics models of growth, the critiques of mainstream models, and the various mechanisms that can weaken the links between energy and growth. Finally we review the empirical literature that finds that energy used per unit of economic output has declined, but that this is to a large extent due to a shift from poorer quality fuels such as coal to the use of higher quality fuels, and especially electricity. Furthermore, time series analysis shows that energy and GDP cointegrate and energy use Granger causes GDP when additional variables such as energy prices or other production inputs are included. As a result, prospects for further large reductions in energy intensity seem limited.

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    Authors: Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin; Muhammad Haseeb; Muhammad Azam; Rabiul Islam;

    The main purpose of this study is to examine the linkage among energy consumption (EC), foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development (FD) and trade for the selected ASEAN countries namely Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. After employing appropriate tests of stationarity, long-run-relationship and Granger causality test reveals that there exists significant long-run relationship among all explanatory variables namely FDI inflows, trade, FD and EC. The autoregressive distributed lag bound tests approach further confirms the long-run relationship among set of regressors. Results on Granger causality reveal that in the short-run unidirectional causality running from FDI inflows to EC, EC to FD, and EC to trade. Whereas, results also show that there exists bidirectional causality between trade and EC, EC and FDI, trade and FDI, EC and FD, trade and FD during the period under the study. The empirical results reveals that policy makers needs to formulate appropriate and prudent policy to encourage FDI inflows, improve financial sector development, expand exports volume and sustained energy supply, while keep in mind to achieve sustainable economic growth and development in the ASEAN region

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    Authors: Nikolay Aleksandrov; Raphael Espinoza;

    We study optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option appraoch. Extracting a barrel of oil is similar to exercising a call option and optimal strategies lead to deferring production when oil prices are low and when volatility is high. We sow that, in theory, the net present alue ofa country's oil reserves is increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production decisions are made conditional on oil prices. We also show that the marginal value ofaditional capacity is higher for countries with bigger resources and longer production horizons. We apply the model to Brazil and the U>A>E> in order to pin down two points of the global supply curve.

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    Authors: Amjad Ali; Sabila Khatoon; Muhammad Ather; Naila Akhtar;

    This study examines the short run and long relationship among carbon emission, energy consumption and economic growth in case of Pakistan for the time period 1980-2012. For this purpose we have employed Johansen co-integration approach and the results reveal that there exists long run relationship among energy, growth and environment (E-E-E) in Pakistan. It is found that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in long run but not in short run. Also there exists unidirectional causality between energy consumption to energy emission in Pakistan. Unidirectional causality also found between financial development and economic growth running from financial development to economic growth.

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    Authors: Muhammad Shahbaz; Smile Dube; Ilhan Ozturk; Abdul Jalil;

    This paper provides empirical evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Portugal by applying autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach from 1971 to 2008. In order to capture Portugal’s historical experience, demographic changes and international trade on carbon emissions, we augment the traditional income-emissions model with variables such as energy consumption, urbanization, and trade openness in time series framework. Empirical results confirm the evidence of EKC hypothesis in both the short-run and long-run. All variables carry the expected signs except trade openness. Despite the success of Portugal in containing CO2 emissions so far, it is important to note that in recent years, carbon emissions have risen. In order to comply with the 1992 Kyoto Protocol on CO2 emissions, there is need for policies that focus on the sectors responsible for CO2 emissions.

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    Authors: Cuma Bozkurt; Yusuf Akan;

    In recent years due to factors, such as increases in greenhouse and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, global warming and climate changes has become a major threat for all countries. So in order to prevent this increased environmental pollution and degradation CO2 emissions must be reduced. This study examines economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption relationship in Turkey by using cointegration test. For this purpose 1960-2010 periods taken and annual data of Gross Domestic Product (Y), Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO) and Energy Consumption (EC) are used. The obtained empirical results from this paper indicated that CO2 emissions effect negatively economic growth while energy consumption effect positively it.

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