• Energy Research
• US close

AbstractHuman activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate‐associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture‐recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species.

AbstractAnthropogenic climate change has resulted in warming temperatures and reduced oxygen concentrations in the global oceans. Much remains unknown on the impacts of reduced oxygen concentrations on the biology and distribution of marine fishes. In the Southern California Channel Islands, visual fish surveys were conducted frequently in a manned submersible at three rocky reefs between 1995 and 2009. This area is characterized by a steep bathymetric gradient, with the surveyed sites Anacapa Passage, Footprint and Piggy Bank corresponding to depths near 50, 150 and 300 m. Poisson models were developed for each fish species observed consistently in this network of rocky reefs to determine the impact of depth and year on fish peak distribution. The interaction of depth and year was significant in 23 fish types, with 19 of the modelled peak distributions shifting to a shallower depth over the surveyed time period. Across the 23 fish types, the peak distribution shoaled at an average rate of 8.7 m of vertical depth per decade. Many of the species included in the study, including California sheephead, copper rockfish and blue rockfish, are targeted by commercial and recreational fisheries. CalCOFI hydrographic samples are used to demonstrate significant declines in dissolved oxygen at stations near the survey sites which are forced by a combination of natural multidecadal oscillations and anthropogenic climate change. This study demonstrates in situ fish depth distribution shifts over a 15‐year period concurrent with oxygen decline. Climate‐driven distribution shifts in response to deoxygenation have important implications for fisheries management, including habitat reduction, habitat compression, novel trophic dynamics and reduced body condition. Continued efforts to predict the formation and severity of hypoxic zones and their impact on fisheries dynamics will be essential to guiding effective placement of protected areas and fisheries regulations.