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This archive includes a minimal dataset needed to reproduce the analysis as well as a table (CSV) and spatial polygons (ESRI shapefile) of the resulting output from the publication: Hoecker, T.J., S. A. Parks, M. Krosby & S. Z. Dobrowski. 2023. Widespread exposure to altered fire regimes under 2°C warming is projected to transform conifer forests of the Western United States. Communications Earth and Environment. Publication abstract: Changes in wildfire frequency and severity are altering conifer forests and pose threats to biodiversity and natural climate solutions. Where and when feedbacks between vegetation and fire could mediate forest transformation are unresolved. Here, for the western U.S., we used climate analogs to measure exposure to fire-regime change; quantified the direction and spatial distribution of changes in burn severity; and intersected exposure with fire-resistance trait data. We measured exposure as multivariate dissimilarities between contemporary distributions of fire frequency, burn severity, and vegetation productivity and distributions supported by a 2 °C-warmer climate. We project exposure to fire-regime change across 65% of western US conifer forests and mean burn severity to ultimately decline across 63% because of feedbacks with forest productivity and fire frequency. We find that forests occupying disparate portions of climate space are vulnerable to projected fire-regime changes. Forests may adapt to future disturbance regimes, but trajectories remain uncertain.

Drawing upon climate change damage functions previously proposed in the literature that we have calibrated to a common level of damages at 2.5 C, we examine the effect upon the social cost of carbon (SCC) of varying the specification of damages in a DICE-like integrated assessment model. In the absence of risk aversion, all of the SCC estimates but one agree within a factor of two. The effect of varying calibration damages is mildly sublinear. With a moderate level of risk aversion included, however, the differences among estimates grow greatly. By combining elements of different damage specifications and roughly taking into account uncertainty in calibration, we have constructed a composite damage function that attempts to approximate the range of uncertainty in climate change damages. In the absence of risk aversion, SCC values calculated with this function are in agreement with the standard quadratic DICE damage function; with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.4, this damage function yields SCC values more than triple those of the standard function.

Lakes and rivers covered by seasonal ice are extensively used by humans. Although ice cover duration has been declining over the past 150 years for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers, we still know relatively little about how inland ice loss directly affects humans. Here we provide empirical examples that give quantitative evidence for a winter warming effect on a wide range of cultural ecosystem services. We show that in recent decades, warmer temperatures delayed the opening date of the James Bay winter ice road in northern Ontario, Canada and led to cancellations of religious celebrations (Lake Suwa, Japan and Lake Constance, Germany/Switzerland/Austria), an ice skating race on Lake M��laren, Sweden, and winter ice fishing tournaments in Central and Northern Minnesota. The years with no ice cover on Lake Suwa, Japan from 1443 - 2017. The years with ice cover on Lake Constance, Germany/Switzerland/Austria from 875 - 2018. The years with a normal Vikingar��nnet ice skating race, a modified route, or no race on Lake M��laren, Sweden from 1999 - 2017 as well as associated average winter air temperature. The years with canceled ice fishing tournaments in central and northern Minnesota, USA as well as associated average winter air temperature from 2005 - 2017. Road date openings of the James Bay winter ice road in northern Ontario, Canada and associated freezing degree days from 2005 - 2018.

A total of 170 participants were initially enrolled in the comprehensive behavioral weight loss intervention.In this study, investigators will conduct a follow-up visit 3 years after the completion of the intervention. Only participants who completed the behavioral weight loss intervention will be enrolled in this study. Participants will undergo testing of body weight, body composition, physical activity patterns, energy intake patterns, sleep patterns, resting metabolic rate, and total daily energy expenditure. This study is designed as an observational trial. The objective of this study is to follow-up with participants 3 years after completion of an 18-month comprehensive behavioral weight loss intervention. Outcomes of interest include change in body weight, body composition, physical activity, energy intake, and sleep. In addition, investigators will explore the associations between current physical activity, sleep, and energy intake patterns and body weight regulation.

Flight trajectories of fruit flies and mosquitoes in a wind tunnel.This data file is a MySQL database file which must be uploaded to a MySQL database management system (DBMS) (e.g., via the MAMP installation: http://localhost:8888/MAMP/?language=English, as was used in the associated manuscript). Once you have installed a MySQL DBMS on your machine, make a new database called “wind_tunnel_db”. To populate this database using the data file, first download all of the data files and join them together using: cat wind_tunnel_db_* > wind_tunnel_db.sql Then run the following command to populate the wind_tunnel_db MySQL database with the result. /path/to/mysql -uroot -proot wind_tunnel_db < /path/to/wind_tunnel_db.sql replacing the paths and username/passwords as appropriate. It will take several minutes since it is a large file. The database contains several tables, which are mostly self explanatory. The key tables of interest are the “experiment” table, which lists the 4 experiments contained in this data set, the “timepoint” table, which contains the position, velocity, etc., of every fly/mosquito at every measured time point, and the “trajectory” table, which indicates which set of time points correspond to which individual trajectories. Other useful tables that have been pre-populated are the “crossing” table, which specifies trajectory segments corresponding to each plume crossing, and the “crossing_group” table, which groups sets of crossings together according to experiment and crossing identification criteria. The code that interacts with this database and recreates the figures in the associated manuscript is contained at https://github.com/rkp8000/wind_tunnel.wind_tunnel_db_aaPart 2wind_tunnel_db_abPart 3wind_tunnel_db_acPart 4wind_tunnel_db_adPart 5wind_tunnel_db_aePart 6wind_tunnel_db_afPart 7wind_tunnel_db_agPart 8wind_tunnel_db_ahPart 9wind_tunnel_db_aiInfotaxis databaseBase database for running infotaxis simulations. To see how to prepare and populate this database with simulated trajectory data, see the file _paper_auxiliary_code in the GitHub repository http://github.com/rkp8000/wind_tunnel.infotaxis_db.sql Natural decision-making often involves extended decision sequences in response to variable stimuli with complex structure. As an example, many animals follow odor plumes to locate food sources or mates, but turbulence breaks up the advected odor signal into intermittent filaments and puffs. This scenario provides an opportunity to ask how animals use sparse, instantaneous, and stochastic signal encounters to generate goal-oriented behavioral sequences. Here we examined the trajectories of flying fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) and mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti) navigating in controlled plumes of attractive odorants. While it is known that mean odor-triggered flight responses are dominated by upwind turns, individual responses are highly variable. We asked whether deviations from mean responses depended on specific features of odor encounters, and found that odor-triggered turns were slightly but significantly modulated by two features of odor encounters. First, encounters with higher concentrations triggered stronger upwind turns. Second, encounters occurring later in a sequence triggered weaker upwind turns. To contextualize the latter history dependence theoretically, we examined trajectories simulated from three normative tracking strategies. We found that neither a purely reactive strategy nor a strategy in which the tracker learned the plume centerline over time captured the observed history dependence. In contrast, “infotaxis”, in which flight decisions maximized expected information gain about source location, exhibited a history dependence aligned in sign with the data, though much larger in magnitude. These findings suggest that while true plume tracking is dominated by a reactive odor response it might also involve a history-dependent modulation of responses consistent with the accumulation of information about a source over multi-encounter timescales. This suggests that short-term memory processes modulating decision sequences may play a role in natural plume tracking.

Lifestyle choices,including diet,are conducive to healthy body weights in children. Dairy products and calcium supplementation have been associated with moderation of body weight and body fat. This study was designed to test the following hypotheses with overweight and obese adolescents consuming a controlled diet: - Dietary calcium supplementation as calcium carbonate or dairy calcium modulates energy balance in adolescents. - Increased calcium in the diet of adolescents will increase fecal fat excretion and thereby decrease fat absorption. - Calcium and dairy product supplementation will increase lipid oxidation resulting in an increase in energy expenditure. Subjects will consume a controlled diet containing 800 mg calcium for two three week periods. During one period they will also receive a frozen ice cream like product (smoothie) twice a day based on soy protein that contains no additional calcium. During the other period they will receive a similar product twice a day based on either dairy protein that contains 650 mg calcium or based on soy protein that contains 650 mg calcium as calcium carbonate

Data from: 30 Years Brings Changes to the Arthropod Community of Kibale National Park, Uganda by Opito, E.A., T. Alanko, U. Kalbitzer, M. Nummelin, P. Omeja, A. Valtonen, and Colin A. Chapman. 2023, Biotropica, Article DOI: 10.1111/btp.13206

We monitored golden-cheeked warbler territories in 10 plots within an urban preserve to determine abundance, delineate territories, and document breeding success. We determined environmental conditions across the study period to examine temporal and landscape effects. We then used these data to estimate adult survival and productivity and relate these vital rates to environmental conditions experienced during our study period. We used supported covariates to predict potential effects on this population 25 years into the future. These data and code are associated with the publication in Ecosphere entitled "Urban land cover and El Nino events negatively impact population viability of an endangered North American songbird." We performed an integrated population model to evaluate the effect of climate patterns and urban land cover on the viability of an endangered wood-warbler breeding in central Texas. We used territory monitroing data from 2011–2019 to predict viability of the population 25 years into the future. We assembled and conducted the analysis in R.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.DKRZ.MPI-ESM1-2-HR.ssp126' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The MPI-ESM1.2-HR climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: none, prescribed MACv2-SP, atmos: ECHAM6.3 (spectral T127; 384 x 192 longitude/latitude; 95 levels; top level 0.01 hPa), land: JSBACH3.20, landIce: none/prescribed, ocean: MPIOM1.63 (tripolar TP04, approximately 0.4deg; 802 x 404 longitude/latitude; 40 levels; top grid cell 0-12 m), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC6, seaIce: unnamed (thermodynamic (Semtner zero-layer) dynamic (Hibler 79) sea ice model). The model was run by the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg 20146, Germany (DKRZ) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: none, ocean: 50 km, ocnBgchem: 50 km, seaIce: 50 km.