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This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 °C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.

This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.

Abstract In modern developed economies, one of the primary objectives is to manage the transition from polluting to cleaner technologies as efficiently as possible. By now, in the current empirical literature, one can identify technological spillovers from environmental innovations as a major driver of this process. Specific energy policy aspects connected with industry behaviour have yet to be explored. The aim of this paper is to investigate energy efficiency via environmental innovation and the resulting degree of resilience and adaptation of both developed and developing countries. The work applies the non-parametric DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) framework and Tobit analysis. For this scope, it is built a panel dataset made of some 5000 observations based on energy policy and sustainable development variables for 136 OECD and non-OECD countries. The results show that knowledge spillovers from environmental innovations reduce inefficiency and therefore strengthen the resilience of economies that decide and manage to invest adequately in the transition to more sustainable technologies. Besides, OECD countries improve their energy efficiency scores over time, whilst non-OECD countries do not. This implies that sustainable technologies transition is made more efficient by environmental innovation but the process is fostered by disposing of a resilient economic system – hence, vulnerability can affect the transition. These hypotheses lead to important economic, social and environmental implications for energy policy modelling.

Abstract Energy consumption of the iron and steel industry is examined in seven countries (Brazil, China, France, Germany, Japan, Poland and the United States) for the period 1980–1991. Using a decomposition analysis based on physical indicators for process type and product mix, we decompose intra-sectoral structural changes and efficiency improvements. Specific energy consumption decreased in all countries except Poland. Efficiency improvement played a key role in Brazil, China, Germany and the US, while structural changes were the main driver for energy savings in France and Japan. We also compare the use of various economic indicators to physical indicators and find that they do not track physical developments well in Poland or the developing countries we studied. In the industrialized countries, value added based energy intensity indicators generally reflect the specific energy consumption better than other economic indicators, although large differences occur in individual years. We found a smaller correlation between other economic indicators (gross output and value of shipments) and specific energy consumption. We conclude that use of physical energy intensity indicators improves comparability between countries, provides greater information for policy-makers regarding intra-sectoral structural changes, and provides detailed explanations for observed changes in energy intensity.

Abstract The development of the regional economy in China is unbalanced. Interregional "carbon leakage" and "carbon transfer" have a significant impact on the realization of carbon emission mitigation targets and the allocation of responsibility. Using China's interregional input-output tables and the corresponding carbon emission data for 2007 and 2010, this paper proposes an interregional Ghosh input-output model and estimates the amount of interprovincial carbon emission transfer from the supply-side perspective. We find that the main direction of supply-side carbon emission transfer is from resource-intensive provinces in the central and western regions to developed provinces in the eastern coastal regions. Further analysis shows that the transfer is mainly concentrated in the production and distribution of electricity and heat, nonmetallic mineral products, and basic metals, whose carbon emissions account for approximately 70% of all sectors’ carbon emissions. The differences between the supply side and the demand side of China's provinces are mainly reflected in the transfer out of carbon emissions.

Regulatory inspection and violation reports provide insight into the impact of natural gas extraction on the surrounding environment, human health, and public safety. Inspection reports for natural gas wells in Pennsylvania were collected from the Pennsylvania DEP Compliance Report from 2000 to 2014. Analysis of 215,444 inspection records for 70,043 conventional and unconventional wells was conducted in order to compare the odds of violations occurring under different circumstances. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the probability of violations occurring for both conventional and unconventional wells. When inspected, conventional wells had 40% higher odds of having a violation. However, unconventional wells had higher odds for environmental violations related to waste discharge as well as cementing and casing failures. Large operators had 40% lower odds of having any violation than smaller operators. While larger operators had fewer violations, a few of the largest companies had rates of violation much higher than the average for all operators, with some reaching violation rates as high as 1 in 4 active wells. A well also has a higher chance of being in violation if it is in the first year (85%) or second year (109%) since its spud date.

Abstract In this paper we analyze the economic impact of a decision to produce ethanol in Mexico, comparing the effect of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production with that of alternative public policies. Public support of biofuels has been a public policy goal since 2008, and the promotion of ethanol remains an active part of the government agenda. The evidence used to encourage or alter the policy is (by necessity) chiefly based on international experience. In this study we use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to estimate the impact of ethanol production on the Mexican economy. Using cost data from Brazil we introduce ethanol into a Mexican social accounting matrix, and insert a latent sector into the model to analyze ethanol promotion. Our results show that subsidies to ethanol would increase agriculture production but at the expense of aggregate welfare. By contrast, alternative "clean energy" policies appear to advance economic growth to a greater extent.

Abstract This paper addresses the cost effectiveness of renewable energy technologies in achieving low abatement costs and promoting sustainable developments under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). According to the results of our optimal energy option's analysis, at project scale, compared with a diesel-only energy option, photovoltaic (PV)–diesel (PVDB), wind–diesel (WDB) and PV—wind–diesel (PVWDB) hybrids are very cost-effective energy options. Moreover, energy options with high levels of renewable energy, including 100% renewables, have the lowest net present cost and they are already cost effective without CDM. On the other hand, while the removal of about 87% carbon dioxide emissions could be achieved at negative cost, initial investment could increase by a factor of 40, which is one of the primary barriers hindering wider renewable energy applications in developing countries, among others. Thus, in order to increase developing countries’ participation in the carbon market, CDM policy should shift from a purely market-oriented approach to investigating how to facilitate renewable energy projects through barrier removal. Thus, we recommend that further research should focus on how to efficiently remove renewable energy implementation barriers as a means to improve developing countries’ participation in meaningful emission reduction while at the same time meeting the needs of sustainable economic development.