• Energy Research
• natural sciences close

AbstractChina’s carbon peak greatly impacts global climate targets. Limited studies have comprehensively analyzed the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, changing emission network, and recent carbon intensity (CI) reduction on the carbon peak and the corresponding mitigation implications. Using a unique dataset at different levels, we project China’s CO2 emission by 2035 and analyze the time, volume, driver patterns, complex emission network, and policy implications of China’s carbon peak in the post- pandemic era. We develop an ensemble time-series model with machine learning approaches as the projection benchmark, and show that China’s carbon peak will be achieved by 2021–2026 with > 80% probability. Most Chinese cities and counties have not achieved carbon peaks response to the priority-peak policy and the current implementation of CI reduction should thus be strengthened. While there is a "trade off" between the application of carbon emission reduction technology and economic recovery in the post-pandemic era, a close cooperation of interprovincial CO2 emission is also warranted.

Abstract Emissions trading is presumed to be one of the several effective means to solve the externality of environmental pollution in enterprises. However, previous studies hold varying opinions on the effectiveness of China's sulfur dioxide emissions trading pilot scheme (SETPS). Based on the panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015, the present study uses the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of the SETPS on the intensity of industrial sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions in the pilot areas. This can avoid problems in the terms of selection bias and policy endogeneity. We find that the effect of the SETPS has regional heterogeneity; Tianjin's emissions trading scheme has achieved the desired reduction effect, whereas the implementation of the SETPS in other areas did not reduce the intensity of industrial SO2 emissions. The robustness test results support the aforementioned conclusions. This study proposes that policy support is necessary for reducing the regional SO2 emissions and that these policies should be constantly adjusted during their implementation. Tianjin's sulfur dioxide pilot needs to be studied in detail and promoted in other regions.