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Studies of the aggregated hourly electricity load in geographical areas typically show a systematic variation over the day, the week, and seasons. With hourly metering of individual customers, data for individual consumption profiles have become available. Looking into these data we show that consumption profiles for specific categories of customers are equally systematic but quite distinct for different categories of customers. That is, different categories of customers contribute quite differently to the aggregated load profile. Coupling consumption profiles with hourly market prices which also include a systematic component in the hourly variation, we show that customers with different consumption profiles experience different average cost of their electricity consumption when billed according to hourly time‐of‐use prices. Thus, some categories of customers stand to gain from time‐of‐use pricing, while others stand to lose. In Denmark, typically industry, private services and households stand to lose, whereas agriculture and public services stand to gain from time‐of‐use pricing. However, differences within categories of customers are considerable and, for example, industrial companies running 24 h a day tend to gain from a time‐of‐use pricing. WIREs Energy Environ 2014, 3:582–593. doi: 10.1002/wene.120This article is categorized under: Energy Infrastructure > Economics and Policy Energy Policy and Planning > Economics and Policy

Studies of the aggregated hourly electricity load in geographical areas typically show a systematic variation over the day, the week, and seasons. With hourly metering of individual customers, data for individual consumption profiles have become available. Looking into these data we show that consumption profiles for specific categories of customers are equally systematic but quite distinct for different categories of customers. That is, different categories of customers contribute quite differently to the aggregated load profile. Coupling consumption profiles with hourly market prices which also include a systematic component in the hourly variation, we show that customers with different consumption profiles experience different average cost of their electricity consumption when billed according to hourly time‐of‐use prices. Thus, some categories of customers stand to gain from time‐of‐use pricing, while others stand to lose. In Denmark, typically industry, private services and households stand to lose, whereas agriculture and public services stand to gain from time‐of‐use pricing. However, differences within categories of customers are considerable and, for example, industrial companies running 24 h a day tend to gain from a time‐of‐use pricing. WIREs Energy Environ 2014, 3:582–593. doi: 10.1002/wene.120This article is categorized under: Energy Infrastructure > Economics and Policy Energy Policy and Planning > Economics and Policy

Abstract Households are heterogeneous customers that consume different amounts of electricity for different purposes at different hours of the day. Understanding how the level and timing of electricity consumption is related to household characteristics is important in planning production and grid capacities and in designing policies. Linking Danish smart-meter data for 2017 to detailed household characteristics derived from administrative registers, we analyse how the level and profile of hourly electricity consumption is related to these characteristics. In addition, we examine to what extent having a flat rate for electricity implies cross-subsidies between residential customers in Denmark. We find that both the level and timing of consumption vary significantly with household characteristics, mainly the type of dwelling, its heating technology, its use of electric vehicles, and the number and age of the adults and children who live there, all of which affect the level and timing of consumption. Assuming hourly pricing with constant consumption rates, the average price per kWh paid by different categories of household varies only marginally. That is, the flat rate presently seen by Danish households implies limited cross-subsidies between groups of residential customers. Consequently, introducing real-time pricing for Danish residential customers should not pose serious redistribution concerns and would improve economic efficiency.

Abstract Households are heterogeneous customers that consume different amounts of electricity for different purposes at different hours of the day. Understanding how the level and timing of electricity consumption is related to household characteristics is important in planning production and grid capacities and in designing policies. Linking Danish smart-meter data for 2017 to detailed household characteristics derived from administrative registers, we analyse how the level and profile of hourly electricity consumption is related to these characteristics. In addition, we examine to what extent having a flat rate for electricity implies cross-subsidies between residential customers in Denmark. We find that both the level and timing of consumption vary significantly with household characteristics, mainly the type of dwelling, its heating technology, its use of electric vehicles, and the number and age of the adults and children who live there, all of which affect the level and timing of consumption. Assuming hourly pricing with constant consumption rates, the average price per kWh paid by different categories of household varies only marginally. That is, the flat rate presently seen by Danish households implies limited cross-subsidies between groups of residential customers. Consequently, introducing real-time pricing for Danish residential customers should not pose serious redistribution concerns and would improve economic efficiency.

Offshore wind auctions in Europe have recently seen considerable price decreases, with resulting support levels low enough to warrant the question whether project profitabilities are robust enough against changing market prices, or whether project suffer from low returns upon project realisation. This study investigates the development of profitability between auction date and Final Investment Decision, mainly through identifying impacts of changes in electricity prices, using stochastic discounted cash flow analysis. Some projects seem to have experienced adverse market developments. The study employs an explanatory-sequential approach to analyse two strategies to mitigate this risk: Pricing risks into the auction bid and absorbing losses through reduced returns or, alternatively, passing them down to contractors in the supply chain. The study finds indications that post-auction market developments have likely led to diminishing returns of developers, rather than increased price pressure on contractors. The study enhances the understanding of project profitabilities and developers’ choices between auction and investment decision, and therewith opens the discussion on post-auction industry dynamics as an increasingly relevant factor to ensure that offshore wind can live up to its envisaged role in the decarbonisation of society.

Offshore wind auctions in Europe have recently seen considerable price decreases, with resulting support levels low enough to warrant the question whether project profitabilities are robust enough against changing market prices, or whether project suffer from low returns upon project realisation. This study investigates the development of profitability between auction date and Final Investment Decision, mainly through identifying impacts of changes in electricity prices, using stochastic discounted cash flow analysis. Some projects seem to have experienced adverse market developments. The study employs an explanatory-sequential approach to analyse two strategies to mitigate this risk: Pricing risks into the auction bid and absorbing losses through reduced returns or, alternatively, passing them down to contractors in the supply chain. The study finds indications that post-auction market developments have likely led to diminishing returns of developers, rather than increased price pressure on contractors. The study enhances the understanding of project profitabilities and developers’ choices between auction and investment decision, and therewith opens the discussion on post-auction industry dynamics as an increasingly relevant factor to ensure that offshore wind can live up to its envisaged role in the decarbonisation of society.

We analyse quantitatively how risk exposure from different support mechanisms, such as feed-in tariffs and premiums, can influence the investment incentives for private investors. We develop a net cash flow approach that takes systematic and unsystematic risks into account through cost of capital and the Capital Asset Pricing Model as well as through active liquidity management. Applying the model to a specific case, a German offshore wind park, we find that the support levels required to give adequate investment incentives are for a feed-in tariff scheme approximately 4-10% lower than for a feed-in premium scheme. The effect of differences in risk exposure from the support schemes is significant and cannot be neglected in policy making, especially when deciding between support instruments or when determining adequate support levels. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol 7 (2015)

We analyse quantitatively how risk exposure from different support mechanisms, such as feed-in tariffs and premiums, can influence the investment incentives for private investors. We develop a net cash flow approach that takes systematic and unsystematic risks into account through cost of capital and the Capital Asset Pricing Model as well as through active liquidity management. Applying the model to a specific case, a German offshore wind park, we find that the support levels required to give adequate investment incentives are for a feed-in tariff scheme approximately 4-10% lower than for a feed-in premium scheme. The effect of differences in risk exposure from the support schemes is significant and cannot be neglected in policy making, especially when deciding between support instruments or when determining adequate support levels. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol 7 (2015)