• Energy Research

Abstract India and China are the world’s most populous nations, but they have experienced a very different pattern of economic development. As a result, India currently contributes less than one-quarter of the amount of China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, India’s forecasted economic growth suggests that those emissions will almost quadruple, with much of this rise coming from the industry sector. Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming suggest that direct CO2 emissions should decrease significantly, but leave unanswered the question of how this can be achieved by real-world policies. This study describes a bottom-up model that can be used to assess the impacts of emissions mitigation policies and the linkages between the physical drivers and energy growth of India’s key industries. It focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of this growth, to identify and prioritize the subsectors to address and develop sustainable, low carbon pathways to support economic growth. This analysis shows that India can achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) while achieving substantial economic growth using its currently planned policies. The study describes in detail the methodology and underlying assumptions that are needed by policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions and provide a baseline scenario in the case of no major new technology breakthroughs and no new adopted policies.

Industry is one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonize. With the rapidly falling cost of solar PV, wind power, and battery storage, industry electrification coupled with renewable electricity supply has the potential to be a key pathway to achieve industry decarbonization. This paper summarizes the latest research on the possibility of electrification of the industry sector. The transition to industry electrification would entail major changes in the energy system: large scale increases in renewable electricity or nuclear power supplies, the expansion of electricity transmission and distribution networks, completely different end-use technologies for process heating, and new infrastructure for distributing and dispensing hydrogen. Thus, aggressive and sustained supportive policies and much wider research, development, demonstration, and deployment activities are required to meet net zero carbon emissions goals in the industrial sector. Existing economically competitive electrified industrial processes (such as electric arc furnaces for secondary steelmaking from scrap steel), coupled with zero-carbon electricity sources can sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) compared to manufacturing processes that rely on fossil fuels. Fuel switching in industry from fossil fuel–based process heating to electrified heat can offer many product and productivity benefits, but operating costs in general are much higher than fossil fuel-based heating. Either much lower costs of electricity and energy storage are required and/or new, cost-competitive electric-technology applications are needed to enable further electrification of industry. Indirect electrification i.e., hydrogen production via water electrolysis is another complimentary technology reliant on electricity. Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier, industrial feedstock for products and fuels, or for long-duration energy storage, and thus can also play a key role in industry decarbonization when the hydrogen is produced from zero-carbon electricity and/or with carbon capture and storage. As with direct electrification, cost is the key barrier for the deployment of hydrogen resources.

The greenhouse gas mitigation potential of different economic sectors in three world regions are estimated using a bottom-up approach. These estimates provide updates of the numbers reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). This study is part of a larger project aimed at comparing greenhouse gas mitigation potentials from bottom-up and top-down approaches. The sectors included in the analysis are energy supply, transport, industry and the residential and service sector. The mitigation potentials range from 11 to 15 GtCO2eq. This is 26–38% of the baseline in 2030 and 47–68% relative to the year 2000. Potential savings are estimated for different cost levels. The total potential at negative costs is estimated at 5–8% relative to the baseline, with the largest share in the residential and service sector and the highest reduction percentage for the transport and industry sectors. These (negative) costs include investment, operation and maintenance and fuel costs and revenues at moderate discount rates of 3–10%. At costs below 100 US$/tCO2, the largest potential reductions in absolute terms are estimated in the energy supply sector, while the transport sector has the lowest reduction potential.

Abstract This study uses bottom-up modeling framework in order to quantify potential energy savings and emission reduction impacts from the implementation of energy efficiency programs in the building sector in China. Policies considered include (1) accelerated building codes in residential and commercial buildings, (2) increased penetration of district heat metering and controls, (3) district heating efficiency improvement, (4) building energy efficiency labeling programs and (5) retrofits of existing commercial buildings. Among these programs, we found that the implementation of building codes provide by far the largest savings opportunity, leading to an overall 17% reduction in overall space heating and cooling demand relative to the baseline. Second are energy efficiency labels with 6%, followed by reductions of losses associated with district heating representing 4% reduction and finally, retrofits representing only about a 1% savings.

Abstract Demand-side management initiatives such as voluntary demand response provide significant energy savings in the residential sector, which is a major peak demand contributor. The potential of such savings remains unexplored in Ghanaian households due to insufficient electricity consumption data, lack of end-user behavior information and knowledge about the cost-effectiveness of such programs. This research combines 80 household survey information and energy use monitoring data of household appliances, to assess the residential demand response potential of Ghana. A bottom-up approach based on modified end-use model is used to develop aggregate hourly load curve. The estimated electricity consumption is categorized based on their degree of control to determine peak demand reduction potential for the period 2018-2050. The average daily peak load reduction ranged between 65-406 MW representing 2-14% for the considered scenarios by 2050. The results show appreciable economic viability for investment in demand response with net present value varying between 28-645 million US$. We find that price, energy security and environment signals influence end-users’ electricity use behavior. Authors observe that for energy and cost savings to be realized, utility providers and consumers need effective cooperation on information delivery and feedbacks, and consumers should be incentivized to balance the benefits.

Abstract While energy efficiency can contribute significantly towards improving access to modern energy services, energy sector investments in many developing countries have largely focused on increasing energy access by increasing supply. This is because the links between energy efficiency and energy access, is often overlooked. This oversight of energy efficiency is frequently a missed opportunity, as efficiency is often a very cost-effective energy resource. In combination with grid expansion and new clean energy generation, efficiency efforts can help to ensure that reliable power is provided to the maximum number of customers at a lower cost than would be required to increase generation alone. In this paper we describe an analysis method for determining a country's energy efficiency priorities and devising an action plan to integrate energy efficiency as a resource for meeting a nation's energy access goals. We illustrate this method with a detailed case study of Uganda. If the most efficient technologies on the market were adopted in Uganda, 442 MW of generation-level demand could be offset and energy access for an additional 6 M rural customers could be achieved by 2030. Of this technical potential for efficiency, 91% is cost-effective, and 47% is economically achievable under conservative assumptions.

Abstract Fully decarbonizing global industry is essential to achieving climate stabilization, and reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050–2070 is necessary to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper assembles and evaluates technical and policy interventions, both on the supply side and on the demand side. It identifies measures that, employed together, can achieve net zero industrial emissions in the required timeframe. Key supply-side technologies include energy efficiency (especially at the system level), carbon capture, electrification, and zero-carbon hydrogen as a heat source and chemical feedstock. There are also promising technologies specific to each of the three top-emitting industries: cement, iron & steel, and chemicals & plastics. These include cement admixtures and alternative chemistries, several technological routes for zero-carbon steelmaking, and novel chemical catalysts and separation technologies. Crucial demand-side approaches include material-efficient design, reductions in material waste, substituting low-carbon for high-carbon materials, and circular economy interventions (such as improving product longevity, reusability, ease of refurbishment, and recyclability). Strategic, well-designed policy can accelerate innovation and provide incentives for technology deployment. High-value policies include carbon pricing with border adjustments or other price signals; robust government support for research, development, and deployment; and energy efficiency or emissions standards. These core policies should be supported by labeling and government procurement of low-carbon products, data collection and disclosure requirements, and recycling incentives. In implementing these policies, care must be taken to ensure a just transition for displaced workers and affected communities. Similarly, decarbonization must complement the human and economic development of low- and middle-income countries.