• Energy Research

The likelihood of an ecological system to undergo undesired regime shifts is expected to increase as climate change effects unfold. To understand how regional climate settings can affect resilience; i.e., the ability of an ecosystem to tolerate disturbances without changing its original structure and processes, we used a synchronized mesocosm experiment (representative of shallow lakes) along a latitudinal gradient. We manipulated nutrient concentrations and water levels in a synchronized mesocosm experiment in different climate zones across Europe involving Sweden, Estonia, Germany, the Czech Republic, Turkey and Greece. We assessed attributes of zooplankton communities that might contribute to resilience under different ecological configurations. We assessed four indicator of relative ecological resilience (cross-scale, within-scale structures, aggregation length and gap size) of zooplankton communities, inferred from discontinuity analysis. Similar resilience attributes were found across experimental treatments and countries, except Greece, which experienced severe drought conditions during the experiment. These conditions apparently led to a lower relative resilience in the Greek mesocosms. Our results indicate that zooplankton community resilience in shallow lakes is marginally affected by water level and the studied nutrient range unless extreme drought occurs. In practice, this means that drought mitigation could be especially challenging in semi-arid countries in the future.

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Eutrophication continues to be the most important problem preventing a favorable environmental state and detrimentally impacting the ecosystem services of lakes. The current study describes the results of analyses of 20 year monitoring data from two interconnected Anatolian lakes, Lakes Mogan and Eymir, receiving sewage effluents and undergoing restoration. The first step of restoration in both lakes was sewage effluent diversion. Additionally, in hypertrophic Lake Eymir, biomanipulation was conducted, involving removal of benthi-planktivorous fish and prohibition of pike fishing. The monitoring period included high (H) and low (L) water levels (WL) enabling elucidation of the effects of hydrological changes on lake restoration. In shallower Lake Mogan, macrophyte abundance increased after the sewage effluent diversion in periods with low water levels even at turbid water. In comparatively deeper Lake Eymir, the first biomanipulation led to a clear water state with abundant macrophyte coverage. However, shortly after biomanipulation, the water clarity declined, coinciding with low water level (LWL) periods during which nutrient concentrations increased. A second biomanipulation was conducted, mostly during high water level (HWL) period, resulting in a major decrease in nutrient concentrations and clearer water, but without an expansion of macrophytes. We conclude that repetitive fish removal may induce recovery but its success may be confounded by high availability of nutrients and adverse hydrological conditions.