• Energy Research
• 2016-2025close

AbstractTropical cyclones generate severe hazards in the middle latitudes. A brief review and applications of dynamical and statistical downscaling of tropical cyclone (TC) are described targeting extreme storm surge and storm wave hazard assessment. First, a review of the current understanding of the changes in the characteristics of TCs in the past and in the future is shown. Then, a review and ongoing research about impact assessment of tropical cyclones both dynamical downscaling and statistical model are described for Typhoon Vera in 1959 and Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Finally, several examples of impact assessment of storm surge and extreme wave changes are presented. Changes in both TC intensity and track are linked to future changes in extreme storm surge and wave climate in middle latitude.

In this study, the impact of climate change on wind and wave characteristics has been assessed using super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S wind data and numerical modeling over the Indian Ocean. Wave characteristics were generated in two 25-year periods covering historical and future projections (RCP8.5), and the assessment indicated that, generally, the spatial distributions of wind speed, significant wave height (Hs) and mean spectral wave period (Tm01) will not dramatically change in the future. The assessment also indicated that the wind direction reversing pattern during monsoons will remain similar. Moreover, future westerly winds in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) will shift to the south and a decrease in future wind speed north of the equator will occur, espearound the equator due to cially during winter. The relative change of Hs will be less than wind speed the predominance of swells transferring from the SIO. There will be no considerable change in the future Tm01, except during autumn in the area north of the equator. A novel climate stability index is suggested showing that the semi-enclosed seas in the NIO and the western coasts of India and the Maldives will be areas with the least stability in terms of wave climate. Despite experiencing more intense wind and wave climates, the overall climate will be more stable in the SIO than the NIO.

We analyzed tropical cyclones (TC) based on the theory of Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) and Maximum Potential Surge (MPS) for a long-term assessment of extreme TC intensity and storm surge heights. We investigated future changes in the MPI fields and MPS for different global warming levels based on 150-year continuous scenario projections (HighResMIP) and large ensemble climate projections (d4PDF/d2PDF). Focusing on the Western North Pacific Ocean (WNP), we analyzed future changes in the MPI and found that it reached a maximum in the latitudinal range of 30–40°N in September. We also analyzed future changes in the MPS in major bays of East Asia and along the Pacific coast of Japan. Future changes in the MPS were projected, and it was confirmed that changes in the MPS are larger in bays where large storm surge events have occurred in the past.

Understanding storm surge inundation risk is essential for developing countermeasures and adaptation strategies for tackling climate change. Consistent assessment of storm surge inundation risk that links probability of hazard occurrence to distribution of economic consequence are scarce due to the lack of historical data and uncertainty of climate change, especially at local scales. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to construct exceedance probability (EP) curves for representing storm surge risk and identifying the economic impact of climate change in the coastal areas of Ise Bay, Japan. The region-specific exceedance probability curves show that risk could be different among different districts. The industry-specific exceedance probability curves show that manufacturing, transport and postal activities, electricity, gas, heat supply and water, and wholesale and retail trade are the most affected sectors in terms of property damage. Services also need to be of concern in terms of business interruption loss. Exceedance probability curves provide complete risk information and our simulation-based approach can contribute to a better understanding of storm surge risk, improve the quantitative assessment of the climate change-driven impacts on coastal areas, and identify vulnerable regions and industrial sectors in detail.

This study models shoreline retreat due to sea level rise by using geographic data and applies the model to future projections of decreases in beach area for 806 beaches in Japan. The model uses a foreshore slope (angle) based on data from a digital elevation model, and influence of the present simplified method for estimation of the shoreline retreat is examined through comparisons with previous studies at typical locations. The proposed method gives a distance of shoreline retreat due to sea level rise similar to that predicted using the Bruun rule for minimal retreat less than 30 m, but the difference becomes substantial for more extensive decreases. The decrease in beach area is projected for different sea level rises based on four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The decrease in beach area becomes more severe for the RCP8.5 scenario, and the proposed method predicts that a third of current sandy beaches in Japan will disappear. The extent of the decrease depends not only on the sea-level-rise scenario but also on the SLR projection model.

This dataset supports Oderiz et al. (2022) "Transitional Wave Climate Regions on Continental and Polar Coasts in a Warming World". Nature Climate Change.10.1038/s41558-022-01389-3 We recomend users to also read: Odériz, I., Silva, R., Mortlock, T. R., Mori, N., Shimura, T., et al. (2021). Natural variability and warming signals in global ocean wave climates. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL093622. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093622 {"references": ["Od\u00e9riz, I., Mori, N., Shimura, T., Webb, A., Silva, R., Mortlock, T.R. (2022). Transitional Wave Climate Regions on Continental and Polar Coasts in a Warming World.", "Od\u00e9riz, I., Silva, R., Mortlock, T. R., Mori, N., Shimura, T., et al. (2021). Natural variability and warming signals in global ocean wave climates. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL093622. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093622"]}

Abstract Global climate variabilities have the potential to impact many coastlines around the world, and can have detrimental effects on the stability of coastlines and their function as natural coastal defenses. This paper investigates the impacts of future extreme storms and sea level rise on morphodynamics of the macro-tidal Sefton Coast, UK, taking a process-based model as a tool to simulate a snap-shot of future beach change during storms. Sefton Coast represents one of the largest dune systems in the UK, where frontal dunes function as a natural barrier against extreme conditions. Future storm conditions were determined from global predictions of future waves at the end of the twenty first century. Future sea levels were determined based on climate change allowances set by the UK Environment Agency (EA), while future surge conditions were determined based on the guidelines also provided by EA. A nested numerical modelling approach, that combined a regional scale model with a local scale model with high resolution, is used. The modelling suite was first validated against measured waves, water levels and beach change, before using it to simulate morphodynamic change from numerous statistically significant ‘future’ storm conditions. Future storm-induced morphodynamic change of the Sefton coast was then compared with that from the present storms. The results reveal that this beach will experience significant climate change driven impacts where dune retreat during storms will be considerably higher in future. The results also reveal that due to the shape of the beach and its orientation to predominant wave approach direction, there will be a strong longshore variability of morphodynamic response to storms. It was also found that the water level in front of the dune (and hence surge and future sea level rise) is the most critical factor that determines beach erosion during a storm.