• Energy Research

The rapidly warming temperatures in high-latitude and alpine regions have the potential to alter the phenology of Arctic and alpine plants, affecting processes ranging from food webs to ecosystem trace gas fluxes. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) was initiated in 1990 to evaluate the effects of expected rapid changes in temperature on tundra plant phenology, growth and community changes using experimental warming. Here, we used the ITEX control data to test the phenological responses to background temperature variation across sites spanning latitudinal and moisture gradients. The dataset overall did not show an advance in phenology; instead, temperature variability during the years sampled and an absence of warming at some sites resulted in mixed responses. Phenological transitions of high Arctic plants clearly occurred at lower heat sum thresholds than those of low Arctic and alpine plants. However, sensitivity to temperature change was similar among plants from the different climate zones. Plants of different communities and growth forms differed for some phenological responses. Heat sums associated with flowering and greening appear to have increased over time. These results point to a complex suite of changes in plant communities and ecosystem function in high latitudes and elevations as the climate warms.

AbstractWarmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high‐latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high‐latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.

Climate change is warming the temperatures and lengthening the Arctic growing season with potentially important effects on plant phenology. The ability of plant species to acclimate to changing climatic conditions will dictate the level to which their spatial coverage and habitat-type dominance is different in the future. While the effect of changes in temperature on phenology and species composition have been observed at the plot and at the regional scale, a systematic assessment at medium spatial scales using new noninvasive sensor techniques has not been performed yet. At four sites across the North Slope of Alaska, changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signal were observed by Mobile Instrumented Sensor Platforms (MISP) that are suspended over 50 m transects spanning local moisture gradients. The rates of greening (measured in June) and senescence (measured in August) in response to the air temperature was estimated by changes in NDVI measured as the difference between the NDVI on a specific date and three days later. In June, graminoid- and shrub-dominated habitats showed the greatest rates of NDVI increase in response to the high air temperatures, while forb- and lichen-dominated habitats were less responsive. In August, the NDVI was more responsive to variations in the daily average temperature than spring greening at all sites. For graminoid- and shrub-dominated habitats, we observed a delayed decrease of the NDVI, reflecting a prolonged growing season, in response to high August temperatures. Consequently, the annual C assimilation capacity of these habitats is increased, which in turn may be partially responsible for shrub expansion and further increases in net summer CO2 fixation. Strong interannual differences highlight that long-term and noninvasive measurements of such complex feedback mechanisms in arctic ecosystems are critical to fully articulate the net effects of climate variability and climate change on plant community and ecosystem processes.

AbstractFew studies have clearly linked long‐term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long‐term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes.

AbstractThe Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long‐term time series of spring leaf‐out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology.

AbstractEnvironmental manipulation studies are integral to determining biological consequences of climate warming. Open Top Chambers (OTCs) have been widely used to assess summer warming effects on terrestrial biota, with their effects during other seasons normally being given less attention even though chambers are often deployed year‐round. In addition, their effects on temperature extremes and freeze‐thaw events are poorly documented. To provide robust documentation of the microclimatic influences of OTCs throughout the year, we analysed temperature data from 20 studies distributed across polar and alpine regions. The effects of OTCs on mean temperature showed a large range (−0.9 to 2.1 °C) throughout the year, but did not differ significantly between studies. Increases in mean monthly and diurnal temperature were strongly related (R2 = 0.70) with irradiance, indicating that PAR can be used to predict the mean warming effect of OTCs. Deeper snow trapped in OTCs also induced higher temperatures at soil/vegetation level. OTC‐induced changes in the frequency of freeze‐thaw events included an increase in autumn and decreases in spring and summer. Frequency of high‐temperature events in OTCs increased in spring, summer and autumn compared with non‐manipulated control plots. Frequency of low‐temperature events was reduced by deeper snow accumulation and higher mean temperatures. The strong interactions identified between aspects of ambient environmental conditions and effects of OTCs suggest that a detailed knowledge of snow depth, temperature and irradiance levels enables us to predict how OTCs will modify the microclimate at a particular site and season. Such predictive power allows a better mechanistic understanding of observed biotic response to experimental warming studies and for more informed design of future experiments. However, a need remains to quantify OTC effects on water availability and wind speed (affecting, for example, drying rates and water stress) in combination with microclimate measurements at organism level.