• Energy Research

AbstractRecent wildfire events (e.g. Mediterranean region, USA, and Australia) showed that this hazard poses a serious threat for wildland–urban interface (WUI) areas around the globe. Furthermore, recent events in regions where wildfire does not constitute a frequent hazard (e.g. Siberia, Scandinavia) indicated that the spatial pattern of wildfire risk might have significantly changed. To prepare for upcoming extreme events, it is critical for decision-makers to have a thorough understanding of the vulnerability of the built environment to wildfire. Building quality and design standards are important not only because building loss is costly but also because robust buildings may offer shelter when evacuation is not possible. However, studies aiming at the analysis of wildfire vulnerability for the built environment are limited. This paper presents an innovative solution for the vulnerability assessment to wildfires, making use of an all-relevant feature selection algorithm established on statistical relationships to develop a physical vulnerability index for buildings subject to wildfire. Data from a recent and systematically documented wildfire event in Greece (Mati, 2018) are used to select and weight the relevant indicators using a permutation-based automated feature selection based on random forests. Building characteristics including the structural type, the roof type, material and shape, the inclination of the ground, the surrounding vegetation, the material of the shutters and the ground covering were selected and formed into the index. The index may be used in other places in Europe and beyond, especially where no empirical data are available supporting decision-making and risk reduction of an emerging hazard amplified by climate change.

A key challenge of hazard risk management is finding novel ways to respond to future extremes amid increasing vulnerability. Societal transformation in the context of multi-functional protection schemes offers potential in this regard. However, the drivers and barriers of societal transformation in hazard management are poorly understood. Here we interrogate drivers and barriers of societal transformation in natural hazard management through case studies in Austria, France and Ireland focusing on attempts to integrate multi-functional protection schemes in the context of flood and avalanche hazards. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders connected to proposed transformative strategies in the selected case studies. We find that transformative approaches have been mainly supported by local initiatives instigated by local governments, residents, or NGOs with the aim of complementing conventional hazard management policies. Our analysis shows that local actors and stakeholders often pursue initiatives to address local problems or to seize local opportunities rather than to contribute to a broader societal transformation. According to our findings, key drivers of community-based initiatives with multiple functionality and use include: (i) lack of funding, (ii) lack of legal protection or (iii) lack of space, where classical risk management measures can no longer respond to new circumstances. In contrast, key barriers relate to: (i) lack of local capacities, (ii) lack of local political support and (iii) technological challenges in the implementation phase. These insights support European regions currently working on the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies arising from natural hazards.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010) and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed.