• Energy Research

Coastal seas are highly productive systems, providing an array of ecosystem services to humankind, such as processing of nutrient effluents from land and climate regulation. However, coastal ecosystems are threatened by human-induced pressures such as climate change and eutrophication. In the coastal zone, the fluxes and transformations of nutrients and carbon sustaining coastal ecosystem functions and services are strongly regulated by benthic biological and chemical processes. Thus, to understand and quantify how coastal ecosystems respond to environmental change, mechanistic modeling of benthic biogeochemical processes is required. Here, we discuss the present model capabilities to quantitatively describe how benthic fauna drives nutrient and carbon processing in the coastal zone. There are a multitude of modeling approaches of different complexity, but a thorough mechanistic description of benthic-pelagic processes is still hampered by a fundamental lack of scientific understanding of the diverse interactions between the physical, chemical and biological processes that drive biogeochemical fluxes in the coastal zone. Especially shallow systems with long water residence times are sensitive to the activities of benthic organisms. Hence, including and improving the description of benthic biomass and metabolism in sediment diagenetic as well as ecosystem models for such systems is essential to increase our understanding of their response to environmental changes and the role of coastal sediments in nutrient and carbon cycling. Major challenges and research priorities are (1) to couple the dynamics of zoobenthic biomass and metabolism to sediment reactive-transport in models, (2) to test and validate model formulations against real-world data to better incorporate the context-dependency of processes in heterogeneous coastal areas in models and (3) to capture the role of stochastic events.

AbstractThe occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20th century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and identified relationships in our dataset using multivariate statistics and modeling across 31 biotic and abiotic variables from 1925 to 2005 in the Central Baltic Sea. We identified a series of ecosystem regime shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and at the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s. In the long term, the Central Baltic Sea showed a regime shift from a benthic to pelagic‐dominated state. Historically, benthic components played a significant role in trophic transfer, while in the more recent productive system pelagic–benthic coupling was weak and pelagic components dominated. Our analysis shows that for the entire time period, productivity, climate, and hydrography mainly affected the functioning of the food web, whereas fishing became important more recently. Eutrophication had far‐reaching direct and indirect impacts from a long‐term perspective and changed not only the trophic state of the system but also affected higher trophic levels. Our study also suggests a switch in regulatory drivers from salinity to oxygen. The “reference ecosystem” identified in our analysis may guide the establishment of an ecosystem state baseline and threshold values for ecosystem state indicators of the Central Baltic Sea.

AbstractNutrient loading and climate change affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. Unravelling the combined effects of these pressures on benthic macrofauna is essential for understanding the future functioning of coastal ecosystems, as it is an important component linking the benthic and pelagic realms. In this study, we extended an existing model of benthic macrofauna coupled with a physical–biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea to study the combined effects of changing nutrient loads and climate on biomass and metabolism of benthic macrofauna historically and in scenarios for the future. Based on a statistical comparison with a large validation dataset of measured biomasses, the model showed good or reasonable performance across the different basins and depth strata in the model area. In scenarios with decreasing nutrient loads according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan but also with continued recent loads (mean loads 2012–2014), overall macrofaunal biomass and carbon processing were projected to decrease significantly by the end of the century despite improved oxygen conditions at the seafloor. Climate change led to intensified pelagic recycling of primary production and reduced export of particulate organic carbon to the seafloor with negative effects on macrofaunal biomass. In the high nutrient load scenario, representing the highest recorded historical loads, climate change counteracted the effects of increased productivity leading to a hyperbolic response: biomass and carbon processing increased up to mid‐21st century but then decreased, giving almost no net change by the end of the 21st century compared to present. The study shows that benthic responses to environmental change are nonlinear and partly decoupled from pelagic responses and indicates that benthic–pelagic coupling might be weaker in a warmer and less eutrophic sea.

AbstractAquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human‐nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures (“Sustainable well‐being” vs. “Fossil‐fuelled development”) studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the “Sustainable well‐being”‐scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the “fossil‐fuelled development”‐scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long‐term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution.