• Energy Research

AbstractAn important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole‐ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification.Predicción de Interacciones entre Pesca, Calentamiento de Océanos y Acidificación de Océanos en un Sistema Marino con Modelos de Ecosistemas Completos

Body-size relationships between predators and prey exhibit remarkable diversity. However, the assumption that predators typically consume proportionally smaller prey often underlies size-dependent predation in ecosystem models. In reality, some animals can consume larger prey or exhibit limited changes in prey size as they grow larger themselves. These distinct predator–prey size relationships challenge the conventional assumptions of traditional size-based models. Cephalopods, with their diverse feeding behaviours and life histories, offer an excellent case study to investigate the impact of greater biological realism in predator–prey size relationships on energy flow within a size-structured ecosystem model. By categorizing cephalopods into high and low-activity groups, in line with empirically derived, distinct predator–prey size relationships, we found that incorporating greater biological realism in size-based feeding reduced ecosystem biomass and production, while simultaneously increasing biomass stability and turnover. Our results have broad implications for ecosystem modelling, since distinct predator–prey size relationships extend beyond cephalopods, encompassing a wide array of major taxonomic groups from filter-feeding fishes to baleen whales. Incorporating a diversity of size-based feeding in food web models can enhance their ecological and predictive accuracy when studying ecosystem dynamics.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

AbstractRichardson, A. J. 2008. In hot water: zooplankton and climate change. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 279–295. An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems, because temperature influences water column stability, nutrient enrichment, and the degree of new production, and thus the abundance, size composition, diversity, and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages, in the timing of important life-cycle events, and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies, where climate has had an obvious, tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences, are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented, followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton, viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system.

AbstractChlorophyll a is the most commonly used indicator of phytoplankton biomass in the marine environment. It is relatively simple and cost effective to measure when compared to phytoplankton abundance and is thus routinely included in many surveys. Here we collate 173, 333 records of chlorophyll a collected since 1965 from Australian waters gathered from researchers on regular coastal monitoring surveys and ocean voyages into a single repository. This dataset includes the chlorophyll a values as measured from samples analysed using spectrophotometry, fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The Australian Chlorophyll a database is freely available through the Australian Ocean Data Network portal (https://portal.aodn.org.au/). These data can be used in isolation as an index of phytoplankton biomass or in combination with other data to provide insight into water quality, ecosystem state, and relationships with other trophic levels such as zooplankton or fish.

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Abstract Several lines of evidence show that ocean warming off the east coast of Tasmania is the result of intensification of the East Australian Current (EAC). Increases in the strength, duration and frequency of southward incursions of warm, nutrient poor EAC water transports heat and biota to eastern Tasmania. This shift in large-scale oceanography is reflected by changes in the structure of nearshore zooplankton communities and other elements of the pelagic system; by a regional decline in the extent of dense beds of giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ); by marked changes in the distribution of nearshore fishes; and by range expansions of other northern warmer-water species to colonize Tasmanian coastal waters. Population-level changes in commercially important invertebrate species may also be associated with the warming trend. Over-grazing of seaweed beds by one recently established species, the sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii , is causing a fundamental shift in the structure and dynamics of Tasmanian rocky reef systems by the formation of sea urchin ‘barrens’ habitat. Formation of barrens represents an interaction between effects of climate change and a reduction in large predatory rock lobsters due to fishing. Barrens realize a loss of biodiversity and production from rocky reefs, and threaten valuable abalone and rock lobster fisheries and the local economies and social communities they support. This range-extending sea urchin species represents the single largest biologically mediated threat to the integrity of important shallow water rocky reef communities in eastern Tasmania. In synthesizing change in the physical ocean climate in eastern Tasmania and parallel shifts in species' distributions and ecological processes, there is evidence that the direct effects of changing physical conditions have precipitated cascading effects of ecological change in benthic (rocky reef) and pelagic systems. However, some patterns correlated with temperature have plausible alternative explanations unrelated to thermal gradients in time or space. We identify important knowledge gaps that need to be addressed to adequately understand, anticipate and adapt to future climate-driven changes in marine systems in the region.