• Energy Research

AbstractMultinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary sets of single-objective priorities. This novel framework is applicable to any multilateral or global initiative seeking to apply quantitative information in decision making.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a primary policy instrument for managing and protecting coral reefs. Successful MPAs ultimately depend on knowledge-based decision making, where scientific research is integrated into management actions. Fourteen coral reef MPA managers and sixteen academics from eleven research, state and federal government institutions each outlined at least five pertinent research needs for improving the management of MPAs situated in Australian coral reefs. From this list of 173 key questions, we asked members of each group to rank questions in order of urgency, redundancy and importance, which allowed us to explore the extent of perceptional mismatch and overlap among the two groups. Our results suggest the mismatch among MPA managers and academics is small, with no significant difference among the groups in terms of their respective research interests, or the type of questions they pose. However, managers prioritised spatial management and monitoring as research themes, whilst academics identified climate change, resilience, spatial management, fishing and connectivity as the most important topics. Ranking of the posed questions by the two groups was also similar, although managers were less confident about the achievability of the posed research questions and whether questions represented a knowledge gap. We conclude that improved collaboration and knowledge transfer among management and academic groups can be used to achieve similar objectives and enhance the knowledge-based management of MPAs.

Understanding how range-edge populations will respond to climate change is an urgent research priority. Here, we used a phylogenetic community ecology approach to examine how ecological and evolutionary processes shape biodiversity patterns of scleractinian corals at their high-latitude range limits in eastern Australia. We estimated phylogenetic signal in seven ecologically important functional traits and conducted tests of phylogenetic structure at local and regional scales using the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon indices (NTI) for the presence/absence and abundance data. Regional tests showed light phylogenetic clustering, indicating that coral species found in this subtropical-to-temperate transition zone are more closely related to each other than are species on the nearby, more northerly Great Barrier Reef. Local tests revealed variable patterns of phylogenetic clustering and overdispersion and higher than expected phylogenetic turnover among sites. In combination, these results are broadly consistent with the hierarchical filtering model, whereby species pass through a regional climatic filter based on their tolerances for marginal conditions and subsequently segregate into local assemblages according to the relative strength of habitat filtering and species interactions. Conservatism of tested traits suggests that corals will likely track their niches with climate change. Nevertheless, high turnover of lineages among sites indicates that range shifts will probably vary among species and highlights the vulnerability and conservation significance of high-latitude reefs.

Climate change is causing the decline of coral reef ecosystems globally. Recent research highlights the importance of reducing CO2 emissions in combination with implementing local management actions to support reef health and recovery, particularly actions that protect sites which are more resilient to extreme events. Resilience assessments quantify the ecological, social, and environmental context of reefs through the lens of resilience, i.e., the capacity of a system to absorb or withstand stressors such that the system maintains its structure and functions and has the capacity to adapt to future disturbances and changes. Resilience assessments are an important tool to help marine managers and decision makers anticipate changes, identify areas with high survival prospects, and prioritize management actions to support resilience. While being widely implemented, however, there has not yet been an evaluation of whether resilience assessments have informed coral reef management. Here, we assess the primary and gray literature and input from coral reef managers to map where resilience assessments have been conducted. We explore if and how they have been used to inform management actions and provide recommendations for improving the likelihood that resilience assessments will result in management actions and positive conservation outcomes. These recommendations are applicable to other ecosystems in which resilience assessments are applied and will become increasingly important as climate impacts intensify and reduce the window of opportunity for protecting natural ecosystems.

La gestion des récifs coralliens pour la résilience au changement climatique est un concept populaire, mais il a été difficile à mettre en œuvre car les preuves scientifiques empiriques n'ont pas été évaluées ou ne sont parfois pas favorables à la théorie, ce qui conduit à l'incertitude lors de l'examen des méthodes et de l'identification des récifs prioritaires. Nous avons demandé à des experts et examiné la littérature scientifique pour obtenir des conseils sur les multiples facteurs physiques et biologiques qui affectent la capacité des récifs coralliens à résister et à se remettre des perturbations climatiques. Onze facteurs clés pour éclairer les décisions basées sur la mise à l'échelle des preuves scientifiques et la faisabilité de la quantification des facteurs ont été identifiés. Les facteurs importants pour la résistance et la récupération, qui sont des composantes importantes de la résilience, n'étaient pas fortement liés et devraient être évalués de manière indépendante. L'abondance d'espèces coralliennes résistantes (tolérantes à la chaleur) et la variabilité des températures passées ont été perçues comme offrant la plus grande résistance au changement climatique, tandis que les taux de recrutement des coraux et l'abondance des macroalgues ont été les plus influents dans le processus de rétablissement. Sur la base des 11 facteurs clés, nous avons testé un cadre fondé sur des données probantes pour la résilience au changement climatique dans une aire marine protégée indonésienne. Les résultats suggèrent que notre cadre pondéré par les preuves a amélioré les méthodes non pondérées existantes en termes de caractérisation de la résilience et de distinction des sites prioritaires. L'évaluation soutient le concept selon lequel, malgré une grande complexité écologique, relativement peu de variables fortes peuvent être importantes pour influencer la dynamique des écosystèmes. Il s'agit de la première évaluation rigoureuse des facteurs favorisant la résilience des récifs coralliens en fonction de leur importance perçue, des preuves empiriques et de la faisabilité de la mesure. Il y avait peu de différences entre les perceptions des scientifiques de l'importance des facteurs et les preuves scientifiques trouvées dans les publications de revues, mais d'autres études d'impact avant et après seront nécessaires pour tester pleinement la validité de tous les facteurs. Les méthodes ici augmenteront la faisabilité et la défensibilité d'inclure des mesures clés de résilience dans les évaluations des récifs coralliens, ainsi que de réduire les coûts. Adaptation, aires marines protégées, établissement des priorités, résistance, récupération. La gestión de los arrecifes de coral para la resiliencia al cambio climático es un concepto popular, pero ha sido difícil de implementar porque la evidencia científica empírica no se ha evaluado o, a veces, no respalda la teoría, lo que genera incertidumbre al considerar los métodos e identificar los arrecifes prioritarios. Pedimos a expertos y revisamos la literatura científica para obtener orientación sobre los múltiples factores físicos y biológicos que afectan la capacidad de los arrecifes de coral para resistir y recuperarse de las perturbaciones climáticas. Se identificaron once factores clave para informar las decisiones basadas en la evidencia científica a escala y la viabilidad de cuantificar los factores. Los factores importantes para la resistencia y la recuperación, que son componentes importantes de la resiliencia, no estaban fuertemente relacionados y deben evaluarse de forma independiente. Se percibió que la abundancia de especies de coral resistentes (tolerantes al calor) y la variabilidad de la temperatura pasada proporcionaban la mayor resistencia al cambio climático, mientras que las tasas de reclutamiento de coral y la abundancia de macroalgas fueron las más influyentes en el proceso de recuperación. Con base en los 11 factores clave, probamos un marco basado en evidencia para la resiliencia al cambio climático en un área marina protegida de Indonesia. Los resultados sugieren que nuestro marco ponderado por la evidencia mejoró los métodos no ponderados existentes en términos de caracterizar la resiliencia y distinguir los sitios prioritarios. La evaluación respalda el concepto de que, a pesar de la alta complejidad ecológica, relativamente pocas variables fuertes pueden ser importantes para influir en la dinámica de los ecosistemas. Esta es la primera evaluación rigurosa de los factores que promueven la resiliencia de los arrecifes de coral en función de su importancia percibida, la evidencia empírica y la viabilidad de la medición. Hubo pocas diferencias entre las percepciones de los científicos sobre la importancia de los factores y la evidencia científica que se encuentra en las publicaciones de revistas, pero se requerirán más estudios antes y después del impacto para probar completamente la validez de todos los factores. Los métodos aquí mencionados aumentarán la viabilidad y la defendibilidad de incluir métricas clave de resiliencia en las evaluaciones de los arrecifes de coral, así como reducirán los costos. Adaptación, áreas marinas protegidas, priorización, resistencia, recuperación. Managing coral reefs for resilience to climate change is a popular concept but has been difficult to implement because the empirical scientific evidence has either not been evaluated or is sometimes unsupportive of theory, which leads to uncertainty when considering methods and identifying priority reefs. We asked experts and reviewed the scientific literature for guidance on the multiple physical and biological factors that affect the ability of coral reefs to resist and recover from climate disturbance. Eleven key factors to inform decisions based on scaling scientific evidence and the achievability of quantifying the factors were identified. Factors important to resistance and recovery, which are important components of resilience, were not strongly related, and should be assessed independently. The abundance of resistant (heat-tolerant) coral species and past temperature variability were perceived to provide the greatest resistance to climate change, while coral recruitment rates, and macroalgae abundance were most influential in the recovery process. Based on the 11 key factors, we tested an evidence-based framework for climate change resilience in an Indonesian marine protected area. The results suggest our evidence-weighted framework improved upon existing un-weighted methods in terms of characterizing resilience and distinguishing priority sites. The evaluation supports the concept that, despite high ecological complexity, relatively few strong variables can be important in influencing ecosystem dynamics. This is the first rigorous assessment of factors promoting coral reef resilience based on their perceived importance, empirical evidence, and feasibility of measurement. There were few differences between scientists' perceptions of factor importance and the scientific evidence found in journal publications but more before and after impact studies will be required to fully test the validity of all the factors. The methods here will increase the feasibility and defensibility of including key resilience metrics in evaluations of coral reefs, as well as reduce costs. Adaptation, marine protected areas, priority setting, resistance, recovery. تعد إدارة الشعاب المرجانية من أجل المرونة في مواجهة تغير المناخ مفهومًا شائعًا ولكن كان من الصعب تنفيذه لأن الأدلة العلمية التجريبية إما لم يتم تقييمها أو أنها في بعض الأحيان غير داعمة للنظرية، مما يؤدي إلى عدم اليقين عند النظر في الأساليب وتحديد الشعاب المرجانية ذات الأولوية. طلبنا من الخبراء وراجعنا الأدبيات العلمية للحصول على إرشادات حول العوامل الفيزيائية والبيولوجية المتعددة التي تؤثر على قدرة الشعاب المرجانية على المقاومة والتعافي من اضطرابات المناخ. تم تحديد أحد عشر عاملاً رئيسياً لتوجيه القرارات بناءً على قياس الأدلة العلمية وإمكانية تحقيق القياس الكمي للعوامل. لم تكن العوامل المهمة للمقاومة والتعافي، والتي تعد مكونات مهمة للمرونة، مرتبطة ارتباطًا وثيقًا، ويجب تقييمها بشكل مستقل. كان يُنظر إلى وفرة الأنواع المرجانية المقاومة (المقاومة للحرارة) وتقلب درجات الحرارة في الماضي على أنها توفر أكبر مقاومة لتغير المناخ، في حين كانت معدلات تجنيد المرجان ووفرة الطحالب الكلية أكثر تأثيرًا في عملية التعافي. استنادًا إلى العوامل الرئيسية الأحد عشر، اختبرنا إطارًا قائمًا على الأدلة لمرونة تغير المناخ في منطقة محمية بحرية إندونيسية. تشير النتائج إلى أن إطارنا المرجح بالأدلة قد تحسن على الأساليب غير المرجحة الحالية من حيث توصيف المرونة وتمييز المواقع ذات الأولوية. يدعم التقييم المفهوم القائل بأنه على الرغم من التعقيد البيئي الكبير، إلا أن عددًا قليلاً نسبيًا من المتغيرات القوية يمكن أن يكون مهمًا في التأثير على ديناميكيات النظام الإيكولوجي. هذا هو أول تقييم دقيق للعوامل التي تعزز مرونة الشعاب المرجانية بناءً على أهميتها المتصورة والأدلة التجريبية وجدوى القياس. كانت هناك اختلافات قليلة بين تصورات العلماء لأهمية العوامل والأدلة العلمية الموجودة في منشورات المجلات ولكن ستكون هناك حاجة إلى المزيد قبل دراسات التأثير وبعدها لاختبار صحة جميع العوامل بشكل كامل. ستزيد الطرق هنا من الجدوى وإمكانية الدفاع عن تضمين مقاييس المرونة الرئيسية في تقييمات الشعاب المرجانية، بالإضافة إلى تقليل التكاليف. التكيف، والمناطق البحرية المحمية، وتحديد الأولويات، والمقاومة، والتعافي.

This paper reports on a workshop conducted in Australia in 2010, entitled 'Management, Conservation, and Scientific Challenges on Subtropical Reefs under Climate Change'. The workshop brought together 26 experts actively involved in the science and management of subtropical reefs. Its primary aim was to identify the areas of research that need to be most urgently addressed to improve the decision-making framework for managers of subtropical reefs. The main findings of the workshop were a sustainable subtropical reefs declaration that highlights seven research priorities for subtropical reefs. These are to (i) conduct research and management activities across local government, state and bioregion borders; (ii) understand natural variability of environmental conditions; (iii) quantify socio-economic factors and ecosystem services; (iv) benchmark cross-realm connectivity; (v) know marine population connectivity; (vi) habitat mapping and ecological research; and (v) determine refugia. These findings are hoped to form a basis for focussing research efforts, leveraging funds and assisting managers with allocation of resources.

AbstractTropical cyclones generate large waves that physically damage coral communities and are commonly cited as a worsening threat to coral reefs under climate change. However, beyond projections of ocean basin‐scale changes in cyclone intensity, the other determinants of future coral reef damage such as cyclone size and duration remain uncertain. Here, we determine the extent to which downscaled cyclones represent observed cyclone characteristics that influence wave damage to Australian coral reef regions. We then investigate mid‐century (2040–2060) and end of century (2080–2100) downscaled tracks to assess whether cyclone characteristics will change with future warming under a high‐emissions scenario. We find that spatial uncertainties in downscaled cyclogenesis and track positions limit estimates of reef damage for individual coral reefs and regions. Further, the models are unable to reproduce the most reef damaging cyclones for any of the regions. The downscaled tracks capture observed cyclone characteristics, such as size, impacting the Great Barrier Reef well, but perform poorly for the Northern Territory, with mixed performance for the Coral Sea and Western Australia. We find no clear evidence that cyclones will cause more damage to Australian coral reef regions in the future, at least based on the climate models and downscaling approach examined here. There is increasing interest in using tropical cyclone projections to assess future coral reef exposure to damaging waves. We recommend caution when interpreting such projections due to large uncertainty in the mechanisms that influence reef damaging tropical cyclone characteristics and how these will change with future warming.