• Energy Research

Globally, non-cereal crops such as vegetable oils and their associated products will surpass cereals in demand by 2050, according to the World Bank (WB). Despite being considered an energy-efficient food crop, the production and supply capability of rapeseed is mostly influenced by climate conditions. Aiming in this context, the study explored how temperature and rainfall patterns influence rapeseed production, as well as how rapeseed prices in major trading countries may influence production and consumption patterns in developing countries. To do this, a supply and demand model approach has been employed for major exporting (Canada) and importing countries, i.e., China, the United States (U.S.) along with Bangladesh, a developing nation. The baseline study period was considered from 1991 to 2018, and simulations were performed up to 2040. The findings revealed that the most important effect on rapeseed yield is directly related to changes in temperature, which are positively related to the growing season but negatively related to the maturity stages of rapeseed in all studied countries. Rapeseed exports from Canada are expected to rise by 2040, while imports from China and the U.S. will rise simultaneously. In Canada, the per capita consumption of rapeseed oil is expected to increase from 16 to 24 kg per year between 2019 and 2040. Over the projection period, oil per capita consumption has steadily increased in China, the U.S., and Bangladesh. The relative demand for rapeseed oil is projected to increase by 2060, according to representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Therefore, it is necessary to determine market prices considering the probable climatic effect and increasing market demand for rapeseed to sustain the international market access of trading nations.

From the perspective of nutritional security, we investigated the influence of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh using a supply and demand model by considering the potato as an important non-cereal food crop. To provide an outlook on the variation in potato supplies and market prices under changing climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and solar-radiation), the yield, area, import, and demand functions were assessed using district-level time-series data of Bangladesh (1988–2013), disaggregated into seven climatic zones. Results suggest that temperatures above or below the optimal range (18–22 °C) lowered yields. Little rainfall and low solar radiation hinder potato cultivation areas during the potato maturity stage. During the simulated period, the annual production was projected to rise from 88 to 111 million metric tons (MT), with an equilibrium farm price of 155 to 215 US dollars MT−1. Between 2014 and 2030, the nation’s per-capita potato intake is expected to increase from 49 to 55 kg year−1 because of changing dietary patterns. According to the estimated equilibrator, scenario simulations that incorporated various dimensions of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios indicate that potato production and consumption can increase in the future.