• Energy Research

This paper assesses long-term energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Rayong Province which is one of the three provinces in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) of Thailand. LEAP (the Low Emissions Analysis Platform) is used to project final energy demand for each economic sector by using the 2019 data as a base year. In the model, we defined the energy consumption into two scenarios; a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a low carbon scenario (LCS), to see different energy demand and CO2 emissions up to the year 2050. There are different assumptions between BAU and LCS in each sector such as energy efficiency improvement, shift to modern energy, the share of high energy-efficient vehicles, etc. In the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption needed by Rayong Province will increase with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 3.49%, while only 1.52% for the LCS. CO2 emissions in the LCS will be reduced by 41.7% by 2050 when compared with the BAU scenario. Most interestingly, even though energy demand in Rayong Province will be increasing up to 2050, CO2 emissions will peak about 2035 and then reduce. The industry and transport sectors are the most final energy consumption and the highest CO2 emissions. This is because EEC is driven by a production-based economy. The solution for this is to transform to alternative energies sourcing, shift all productions to sustainable ones, restructure the industrial estate to become the eco-industrial and GHG emissions management, which will also result in obvious carbon reduction. This kind of information will be beneficial to energy demand conservation and GHG emission mitigation at the provincial level which will depend on the energy policies initiated and implemented in the future.

In developing cities, transport activities have become one of the primary sources of CO2 emissions and energy consumption owing to rapid economic growth, urbanization, and motorization. Khon Kaen City, Thailand, was chosen as a representative mid-sized city of a developing country to investigate the potential influences of transit-oriented development (TOD), light rail transit (LRT), and electric vehicle (EV) policy integration scenarios on CO2 emission and energy consumption reductions in 2016, 2026, and 2046. The TOD did not significantly reduce CO2 emissions or energy consumption because it was only applied in one area of the city. The LRT development also had a small effect because of the small proportion of modal shifts to LRT. However, EV utilization offered the greatest potential for reducing both CO2 emissions and energy consumption. In addition, the integrated scenario combining the three policies had a promising effect, diminishing both CO2 emissions and energy consumption, because it gathered the potential merits and benefits of each individual policy.

As a non-Annex I country, Thailand has pledged its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from the projected business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2030 and by up to 25% with adequate and enhanced access to technology development and transfer, financial resources, and capacity building support. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how these targets could possibly be met, as far as energy-related CO2 emissions are concerned, and to propose alternative pathways for fast transition to a low-carbon and cleaner energy system along with its technology and research requirements. The study approach is based on the 6th Edition of APEC Energy Outlook for 2040 and the energy-related CO2 emissions scenarios developed at the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. It is found that Thailand's voluntary INDC target on energy-related emissions could be achieved by a combination of energy efficiency improvement efforts and deployment of renewable energy in line with their respective official plans. The higher conditional INDC target of 25% could also be reached by a natural gas dominated power sector, in addition to energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment measures, at the risk of worsening its energy security and increased cost of electricity. An alternative scenario that would not only meet the conditional INDC target but also lead to a fast transition towards a low-carbon and cleaner energy system by 2040 is possible. The scenario is based on a balanced approach, taking into account energy security, cost, and environment. It requires ambitious energy efficiency improvement (particularly in the transport sector) and renewable energy targets, and significant de-carbonization of the power sector. The scenario will see Thailand's energy-related CO2 emissions peaking around 2030 and a 45% cut below the projected BAU level in 2040. The technologies and research required to support the transition have also been identified for the power, transport, commercial buildings, and industry sectors.

Thailand is a net energy importer that has steadily increased the demand for energy over the past several decades. But there has not been a systematic analysis of the energy demand change factors. Therefore, a decomposition analysis was applied to determine the major factor causing the change in energy use during the years 1990-2020. The analysis covered a regional financial crisis known in Thailand as the “Tom Yum Kung” crisis in 1997-1998 and a global pandemic COVID-19 in 2020 onwards. The analysis results showed that the value-added of economic sectors is the most important factor with requiring more energy, while energy intensity is the second most important factor in reducing energy consumption. Therefore, increasing the value-added of productions and enhancing the energy efficiency more stringent will lead to a decoupling of energy consumption against GDP and a sooner peak demand of energy in Thailand.

Nakhon Ratchasima is one of the northeastern cities which has been promoted as one of the low-carbon cities in Thailand. The study aims to evaluate policies and measures on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation to meet the target at the provincial level. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used as a modeling tool to simulate energy demand for each economic sector. The 2019 data is set as a base year, using top-down and bottom-up approaches depending on the availability of data for the analysis. The model consists of two scenarios: (1) Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and Low carbon scenario (LCS). Transport and industry sectors are the most energy-consuming and CO2-emitting sectors in Nakhon Ratchasima Province. In the LCS case, the final energy demand and CO2 emissions in 2050 will be reduced by about 40% compared to the BAU case. In addition, CO2 emissions in Nakhon Ratchasima Province will peak around 2038, this is not the case with BAU. The study could predict future energy demand and propose a way forward to reducing GHG emissions at the provincial level.