• Energy Research

Decarbonisation of energy systems requires deep structural change. The purpose of this research was to analyse the rates of change taking place in the energy systems of each Member State of the European Union (EU), and the EU in aggregate, in the light of the EU's climate change mitigation objectives. Trends on indicators such as sectoral activity levels and composition, energy intensity, and carbon intensity of energy were compared with decadal benchmarks derived from deep decarbonisation scenarios. The methodology applied provides a useful and informative approach to tracking decarbonisation of energy systems. The results show that while the EU has made significant progress in decarbonising its energy system. On a number of indicators assessed the results show that a significant acceleration from historical levels is required in order to reach the rates of change seen on the future benchmarks for deep decarbonisation. The methodology applied provides an example of how the research community and international organisations could complement the transparency mechanism developed by the Paris Agreement on climate change, to improve understanding of progress toward low-carbon energy systems.

Lack of consensus on an international agreement for reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) emissions eventually leads to asymmetric climate policies which not only increase the cost of reducing emissions but also decrease the effectiveness of the climate policy, through carbon leakage. We calculate the carbon leakage rate when EU undertakes a unilateral climate policy and we assess the importance of the competitiveness channel on carbon leakage. Our analysis is global and mirrors energy and climate policies and commitments that are currently announced at country level. The effectiveness of possible measures to mitigate carbon leakage is also evaluated and the results emphasize on the importance of the size of the group of countries participating in the GHG mitigation effort. The analysis is based on the results obtained using the GEM-E3 model, a global multi-sector and multi-country computable general equilibrium model. It is found that total carbon leakage is around 28%, over the 2015–2050 period, when the EU acts alone with moderate Armington trade substitution elasticity values; leakage rates are found to increase when assuming higher trade elasticities. The size and composition, in terms of GHG and energy intensities, of the group of regions undertaking emission reductions matter for carbon leakage. The paper finds that the leakage is significantly reduced when China joins the mitigation effort. If the USA joins the EU effort, the leakage rate drops only to 25% and if alternatively China joins the EU the leakage rate drops to 3% over the 2015–2050 period. This is attributed to both the market size of China and to the energy intensity features of its production. Chemicals and metals are industries prone to higher leakage rates.

AbstractIntegrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of ‘IAMs’. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results.

Research and Innovation (R&I) are a key part of the EU strategy towards stronger growth and the creation of more and better jobs while respecting social and climate objectives. In the last decades, improvements in costs and performance of low-carbon technologies triggered by R&I expenditures and learning-by-doing effects have increased their competitiveness compared to fossil fuel options. So, in the context of ambitious climate policies as described in the EU Green Deal, increased R&I expenditures can increase productivity and boost EU economic growth and competitiveness, especially in countries with large innovation and low-carbon manufacturing base. The analysis captures the different nature of public and private R&I, with the latter having more positive economic implications and higher efficiency as it is closer to industrial activities. Public R&D commonly focuses on immature highly uncertain technologies, which are also needed to achieve the climate neutrality target of the EU. The model-based assessment shows that a policy portfolio using part of carbon revenues for public and private R&D and development of the required skills can effectively alleviate decarbonisation costs, while promoting high value-added products and exports (e.g., low-carbon technologies), creating more high-quality jobs and contributing to climate change mitigation.

Large emission reductions in buildings and transport are possible by integrating demand-side strategies to electrify energy use, improve technological efficiency, and reduce or shift patterns of activity. With enabling policies and infrastructures, final energy users can make significant contributions to climate goals, particularly through widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles.

India���s energy sector has grown rapidly in recent years with buildings playing a major role as they constitute about 40% of India���s final energy demand. This paper provides a quantitative model-based assessment of the evolution of India���s building sector in terms of both energy systems transition and its macroeconomic implications. The coupling of a bottom-up technology-rich energy system model with a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model provides an innovative approach for the in-depth robust analysis of the energy transition in India���s building stock and the induced macroeconomic and employment impacts on the Indian economy. Two main scenarios are explored, namely: the business-as-usual (BAU) and the advanced nationally determined contribution (Adv. NDC) scenarios. The investigation shows that efficiency improvements are vital to counteract the upward pressure on energy demand in the building sector. Energy demand in the building sector results in an increase of CO2 emissions by 27% between 2015 and 2030 due to the technology transition from inefficient solid fuels (traditional biomass) to cleaner energy (liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), piped natural gas (PNG)) before shifting to electricity. The Adv. NDC scenario also leads to a shift in employment from agriculture and towards sectors that benefit from the implementation of Adv. NDC, especially in the construction sectors, electricity and manufacturing sectors.