• Energy Research
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Urban building energy models (UBEM) have the potential to become integral planning tools for district energy systems due to the dynamic, interactive and complex nature of temporal building energy demand patterns. Although the demand patterns are related to the occupancy profiles of buildings supplied by district energy systems, occupant behavior in current UBEM approaches does not usually consider diversity in occupancy profiles among buildings of the same use-type. In this work, a novel method to create context-specific, data-driven commercial building occupancy profiles was used to generate diverse and non-diverse urban building occupant presence models (UBOP). Diverse UBOP randomly assigned occupancy profiles to buildings. Non-diverse UBOP assigned the data-driven mean or median profile to all buildings. ASHRAE standard profiles and occupant densities served as a baseline for comparison. The impact of diverse vs. non-diverse UBOP was assessed by comparing UBEM simulations for district energy efficiency benchmarking, renewable energy integration potential, and district energy system design, using a case study in Singapore. The results demonstrate that, because of the relationship between occupant presence and building systems operation, occupancy profiles are highly sensitive parameters for district energy demand predictions. For the case study, the energy demand estimation is significantly influenced by the shape of occupancy profiles. In particular, the choice of UBOP influences the cooling demand to the degree that district cooling system design decisions might be impacted. Therefore, it is advisable to use diverse UBOP and to run probabilistic UBEM simulations for district energy system design. Applied Energy, 277 ISSN:0306-2619 ISSN:1872-9118

District-scale building energy models can be a powerful tool for the integration of renewable energy sources and efficiency measures in urban areas. One key limitation of these models, however, has been their rather simplified treatment of building occupants. Since it is their activities which create the needs for energy in an area, an improved analysis of the effects of occupants on demand at the district scale is needed. This paper presents a novel population-based approach (PopAp) inspired by agent-based transportation models, in which a population of occupants was defined based on class and employee registers and each was given an individual daily schedule. This approach was then used to assess the effect of occupant presence modeling on district-scale energy demand simulations by comparing the data-centric PopAp method to standard-based deterministic and stochastic approaches. The maximum number of occupants in the area was found to be 33% higher for the deterministic model compared to the data-centric PopAp results, a deviation that was especially pronounced in education buildings. The results for space heating, space cooling and electricity demand for lighting and appliances show that while the mean deviation between models on a yearly basis is within 10% for all demands, on an hourly scale the deviation for space cooling and electricity exceeded 15%. Given the importance of the hourly scale for peak demand prediction for technology sizing, more detailed occupant modeling approaches should be considered when planning energy systems. Building and Environment, 181 ISSN:0360-1323 ISSN:0360-1323

Input uncertainty is one of the major obstacles urban building energy models (UBEM) must tackle. The aim of this paper was to quantify the effects of two of the main sources of stochastic uncertainty, namely building occupants and urban microclimate, on electrical and thermal supply system sizing at the district scale. In order to analyze the effects of the former, three different methods of occupant modeling were implemented in a UBEM. The effects of the urban heat island on system sizing were studied through the use of measured temperature data from a weather station in the case study district compared to measured data from a national weather station. The methods developed were used to assess the sizing and costs of centralized and decentralized technologies for a case study in central Zurich, Switzerland. The choice of occupant modeling approach was found to affect the district’s total annualized costs for space heating and cooling by ±5%, whereas for the costs of electricity the variation was ±8%. Regarding outdoor temperature, the effects on the heating demands proved be negligible, however the costs of the cooling alternatives were found to vary by about 4% at the district scale due to the effect of urban climate, for individual buildings this deviation was as high as 40%.

This thesis introduces a novel framework for the fundamental design of energy systems for neighbourhoods. The framework is based on the sequential integration of three software tools: QGIS, City Energy Analyst (CEA) and Urbio. QGIS is used to build the buildings database (construction standards, occupancy types and schedules). CEA is used to model the neighbourhood energy services (heating, cooling, domestic hot water and electricity for other uses, including EVs). Urbio is used to design in an optimized manner the energy infrastructure that supplies the neighbourhood. This framework was successfully used in the case study of the Vale de Santo António, a neighbourhood to be built by the Municipality of Lisbon within the scope of the Renda Acessível (Affordable Rent) program. The results show that the different software can be easily combined, thus demonstrating a flexible approach for planning neighbourhood energy infrastructures.

Buildings represent 40% of the European Union’s final energy consumption and are largely of resi- dential use. From 2006 to 2016, existing European housing stocks have been analysed at national level to make the energy refurbishment processes transparent and effective. However, at the meta- scale of regions, cities or neighbourhoods, case-by-case analysis using Building Energy Models (BEM) becomes an unfeasible decision-support tool. To try to overcome this limitation, the nascent field of Urban Building Energy Modelling (UBEM) is making substantial progress in the assessment of build- ing energy performance at urban scale. Still, most of the UBEM projects rely upon archetypes – i.e. virtual or sample buildings illustrative of the most frequent characteristics of a particular category, and the definition and description of such archetypes may compromise their reliability. This paper presents an alternative UBEM approach, especially designed for the homogeneous historic districts of cities where a significant proportion of the buildings are under preservation rules. These rules can restrict the scope of the measures to improve their energy efficiency or limit the possibility of implementing renewable energy systems. We introduce a new parameter (HAD) to classify blocks according to their heritage asset density. HAD is then mapped onto the study-area and the sample block is selected as representative of the most frequent HAD category. Using the historic ensemble of Seville as case-study, this paper shows results in energy consumption on a district scale and proposes a set of solutions to improve the energy efficiency of the buildings while respecting the heritage preservation rules. To sup- port consistent policy decisions, validation of these results has been carried out, by in-situ monitoring of a representative number of dwellings.

The decarbonisation of heating in the United Kingdom is likely to entail both the mass adoption of heat pumps and widespread development of district heating infrastructure. Estimation of the spatially disaggregated heat demand is needed for both electrical distribution network with electrified heating and for the development of district heating. The temporal variation of heat demand is important when considering the operation of district heating, thermal energy storage and electrical grid storage. The difference between the national and urban heat demands profiles will vary due to the type and occupancy of buildings leading to temporal variations which have not been widely surveyed. This paper develops a high-resolution spatiotemporal heat load model for Great Britain (GB: England, Scotland a Wales) by identifying the appropriate datasets, archetype segmentation and characterisation for the domestic and nondomestic building stock. This is applied to a thermal model and calibrated on the local scale using gas consumption statistics. The annual GB heat demand was in close agreement with other estimates and the peak demand was 219 GWth. The urban heat demand was found to have a lower peak to trough ratio than the average national demand profile. This will have important implications for the uptake of heating technologies and design of district heating.

Assessing the existing building stock’s hourly energy demand and predicting its variation due to energy efficiency measures are fundamental for planning strategies towards renewable-based Smart Energy Systems. However, the need for accurate methods for this purpose in the literature arises. The present article describes a GIS-based procedure developed for estimating the energy demand profiles of urban buildings based on the definition of the volumetric consistency of a building stock, characterized by different ages of construction and the most widespread uses, as well as dynamic simulations of a set of Building Energy Models adopting different energy-related features. The simulation models are based on a simple Building Energy Concept where selected thermal zones, representative of different boundary conditions options, are accounted. By associating the simulated hourly energy density profiles to the geo-referenced building stock and to the surveyed thermal system types, the whole hourly energy profile is estimated for the considered area. The method was tested on the building stock of Milan (Italy) and validated with the data available from the annual energy balance of the city. This procedure could support energy planners in defining urban energy demand profiles for energy policy scenarios.

Residential buildings are an important sector in the urban environment as they provide essential dwelling space, but they are also responsible for a significant share of final energy consumption. In addition, residential buildings that were built with outdated standards usually face difficulty meeting current energy performance standards. The situation is especially common in Europe, as 35% of buildings were built over fifty years ago. Building retrofitting techniques provide a choice to improve building energy efficiency while maintaining the usable main structures, as opposed to demolition. The retrofit assessment requires the building stock information, including energy demand and material compositions. Therefore, understanding the building stock at scale becomes a critical demand. A significant piece of information is the building geometry, which is essential in building energy modelling and stock analysis. In this investigation, an approach has been developed to automatically measure building dimensions from remote sensing data. The approach is built on a combination of unsupervised machine learning algorithms, including K-means++, DBSCAN and RANSAC. This work is also the first attempt at using a vehicle-mounted data-capturing system to collect data as the input to characterise building geometry. The developed approach is tested on an automatically built and labelled point cloud model dataset of residential buildings and shows capability in acquiring comprehensive geometry information while keeping a high level of accuracy when processing an intact model.