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AbstractClimate change will affect tree species growth and distribution; however, under the same climatic conditions species may differ in their response according to site conditions. We evaluated the climate‐driven patterns of growth for six dominant deciduous tree species in the southern Appalachians. We categorized species into two functional groups based on their stomatal regulation and xylem architecture: isohydric, diffuse porous and anisohydric, ring porous. We hypothesized that within the same climatic regime: (i) species‐specific differences in growth will be conditional on topographically mediated soil moisture availability; (ii) in extreme drought years, functional groups will have markedly different growth responses; and (iii) multiple hydroclimate variables will have direct and indirect effects on growth for each functional group. We used standardized tree‐ring chronologies to examine growth of diffuse‐porous (Acer, Liriodendron, and Betula) and ring‐porous (Quercus) species vs. on‐site climatic data from 1935 to 2003. Quercus species growing on upslope sites had higher basal area increment (BAI) than Quercus species growing on mesic, cove sites; whereas, Acer and Liriodendron had lower BAI on upslope compared to cove sites. Diffuse‐porous species were more sensitive to climate than ring porous, especially during extreme drought years. Across functional groups, radial growth was more sensitive to precipitation distribution, such as small storms and dry spell length (DSL), rather than the total amount of precipitation. Based on structural equation modeling, diffuse‐porous species on upslope sites were the most sensitive to multiple hydroclimate variables (r2 = 0.46), while ring‐porous species on upslope sites were the least sensitive (r2 = 0.32). Spring precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and summer storms had direct effects on summer AET/P, and summer AET/P, growing season small storms and DSL partially explained growth. Decreasing numbers of small storms and extending the days between rainfall events will result in significant growth reduction, even in regions with relatively high total annual rainfall.

AbstractEcosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long‐term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case studies were grouped into separate papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects and compiled into this special issue. This paper addresses the time lags theme with five examples from diverse biomes including tundra (Arctic), coastal upwelling (California Current Ecosystem), montane forests (Coweeta), and Everglades freshwater and coastal wetlands (Florida Coastal Everglades) LTER sites. Its objective is to demonstrate the importance of different types of time lags, in different kinds of ecosystems, as drivers of ecosystem structure and function and how these can effectively be addressed with long‐term studies. The concept that slow, interactive, compounded changes can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure, function, services, and future scenarios is apparent in many systems, but they are difficult to quantify and predict. The case studies presented here illustrate the expanding scope of thinking about time lags within the LTER network and beyond. Specifically, they examine what variables are best indicators of lagged changes in arctic tundra, how progressive ocean warming can have profound effects on zooplankton and phytoplankton in waters off the California coast, how a series of species changes over many decades can affect Eastern deciduous forests, and how infrequent, extreme cold spells and storms can have enduring effects on fish populations and wetland vegetation along the Southeast coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The case studies highlight the need for a diverse set of LTER (and other research networks) sites to sort out the multiple components of time lag effects in ecosystems.

General circulation models project more intense and frequent droughts over the next century, but many questions remain about how terrestrial ecosystems will respond. Of particular importance, is to understand how drought will alter the species composition of regenerating temperate forests wherein symbiotic dinitrogen (N2)-fixing plants play a critical role. In experimental mesocosms we manipulated soil moisture to study the effect of drought on the physiology, growth and competitive interactions of four co-occurring North American tree species, one of which (Robinia pseudoacacia) is a symbiotic N2-fixer. We hypothesized that drought would reduce growth by decreasing stomatal conductance, hydraulic conductance and increasing the water use efficiency of species with larger diameter xylem vessel elements (Quercus rubra, R. pseudoacacia) relative to those with smaller elements (Acer rubrum and Liriodendron tulipifera). We further hypothesized that N2 fixation by R. pseudoacacia would decline with drought, reducing its competitive ability. Under drought, growth declined across all species; but, growth and physiological responses did not correspond to species' hydraulic architecture. Drought triggered an 80% increase in nodule biomass and N accrual for R. pseudoacacia, improving its growth relative to other species. These results suggest that drought intensified soil N deficiency and that R. pseudoacacia's ability to fix N2 facilitated competition with non-fixing species when both water and N were limiting. Under scenarios of moderate drought, N2 fixation may alleviate the N constraints resulting from low soil moisture and improve competitive ability of N2-fixing species, and as a result, supply more new N to the ecosystem.