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Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.

Combler le fossé entre les prévisions des modèles climatiques à échelle grossière et la réalité climatique à échelle fine des espèces est un enjeu clé de la recherche en biologie du changement climatique. Bien qu'il soit maintenant bien connu que la plupart des organismes ne connaissent pas les conditions climatiques enregistrées dans les stations météorologiques, il existe peu d'informations sur les écarts entre les microclimats et les températures interpolées mondiales utilisées dans les modèles de répartition des espèces, et leurs conséquences sur les performances des organismes. Pour résoudre ce problème, nous avons examiné l'hétérogénéité spatio-temporelle à échelle fine des températures de l'air, du couvert végétal et du sol des paysages agricoles des Andes équatoriennes et les avons comparés aux prévisions des grilles climatiques interpolées mondiales. Des séries temporelles de températures ont été mesurées dans l'air, la canopée et le sol pour 108 localités à trois altitudes et analysées à l'aide de la transformée de Fourier. Les écarts entre les températures locales et les grilles interpolées mondiales et leurs implications pour la performance des ravageurs ont ensuite été cartographiés et analysés à l'aide de la boîte à outils statistique SIG. Nos résultats ont montré que les prévisions globales interpolées surestiment de 77,5±10 % et sous-estiment de 82,1±12 % les températures locales minimales et maximales de l'air enregistrées dans la grille étudiée. Des modifications supplémentaires de la température de l'air local étaient dues au tamponnage thermique du couvert végétal (de − 2,7°K pendant la journée à 1,3°K pendant la nuit) et des sols (de −4,9°K pendant la journée à 6,7°K pendant la nuit) avec un effet significatif de la phénologie des cultures sur l'effet tampon. Ces écarts entre les températures interpolées et locales ont fortement affecté les prévisions de la performance d'un ravageur ectothermique des cultures, car les températures interpolées prédisaient des taux de croissance des ravageurs 2,3 à 4,3 fois inférieurs à ceux prédits par les températures locales. Cette étude fournit des informations quantitatives sur la limitation des données climatiques à échelle grossière pour capturer la réalité de l'environnement climatique vécu par les organismes vivants. Dans les régions très hétérogènes telles que les montagnes tropicales, il convient donc de faire preuve de prudence lors de l'utilisation de modèles mondiaux pour déduire des processus biologiques à l'échelle locale. Cerrar la brecha entre las predicciones de los modelos climáticos a escala gruesa y la realidad climática a escala fina de las especies es un tema clave de la investigación en biología del cambio climático. Si bien ahora es bien sabido que la mayoría de los organismos no experimentan las condiciones climáticas registradas en las estaciones meteorológicas, hay poca información sobre las discrepancias entre los microclimas y las temperaturas globales interpoladas utilizadas en los modelos de distribución de especies, y sus consecuencias para el rendimiento de los organismos. Para abordar este problema, examinamos la heterogeneidad espaciotemporal a escala fina en las temperaturas del aire, el dosel de los cultivos y el suelo de los paisajes agrícolas en los Andes ecuatorianos y los comparamos con las predicciones de las redes climáticas interpoladas globales. Las series temporales de temperatura se midieron en aire, dosel y suelo para 108 localidades a tres altitudes y se analizaron mediante la transformada de Fourier. Las discrepancias entre las temperaturas locales frente a las redes interpoladas globales y sus implicaciones para el rendimiento de las plagas se mapearon y analizaron utilizando una caja de herramientas estadísticas SIG. Nuestros resultados mostraron que las predicciones interpoladas globales sobreestiman en un 77.5±10% y subestiman en un 82.1±12% las temperaturas mínimas y máximas locales del aire registradas en la cuadrícula estudiada. Las modificaciones adicionales de las temperaturas locales del aire se debieron al amortiguamiento térmico de las copas de las plantas (de -2,7 ° K durante el día a 1,3 ° K durante la noche) y los suelos (de -4,9 ° K durante el día a 6,7 ° K durante la noche) con un efecto significativo de la fenología de los cultivos en el efecto amortiguador. Estas discrepancias entre las temperaturas interpoladas y locales afectaron fuertemente las predicciones del rendimiento de una plaga de cultivo ectotérmico, ya que las temperaturas interpoladas predijeron tasas de crecimiento de plagas 2.3–4.3 veces más bajas que las predichas por las temperaturas locales. Este estudio proporciona información cuantitativa sobre la limitación de los datos climáticos a escala aproximada para capturar la realidad del entorno climático experimentado por los organismos vivos. Por lo tanto, en regiones altamente heterogéneas como las montañas tropicales, se debe tener precaución al utilizar modelos globales para inferir procesos biológicos a escala local. Bridging the gap between the predictions of coarse-scale climate models and the fine-scale climatic reality of species is a key issue of climate change biology research. While it is now well known that most organisms do not experience the climatic conditions recorded at weather stations, there is little information on the discrepancies between microclimates and global interpolated temperatures used in species distribution models, and their consequences for organisms' performance. To address this issue, we examined the fine-scale spatiotemporal heterogeneity in air, crop canopy and soil temperatures of agricultural landscapes in the Ecuadorian Andes and compared them to predictions of global interpolated climatic grids. Temperature time-series were measured in air, canopy and soil for 108 localities at three altitudes and analysed using Fourier transform. Discrepancies between local temperatures vs. global interpolated grids and their implications for pest performance were then mapped and analysed using GIS statistical toolbox. Our results showed that global interpolated predictions over-estimate by 77.5±10% and under-estimate by 82.1±12% local minimum and maximum air temperatures recorded in the studied grid. Additional modifications of local air temperatures were due to the thermal buffering of plant canopies (from −2.7°K during daytime to 1.3°K during night-time) and soils (from −4.9°K during daytime to 6.7°K during night-time) with a significant effect of crop phenology on the buffer effect. This discrepancies between interpolated and local temperatures strongly affected predictions of the performance of an ectothermic crop pest as interpolated temperatures predicted pest growth rates 2.3–4.3 times lower than those predicted by local temperatures. This study provides quantitative information on the limitation of coarse-scale climate data to capture the reality of the climatic environment experienced by living organisms. In highly heterogeneous region such as tropical mountains, caution should therefore be taken when using global models to infer local-scale biological processes. يعد سد الفجوة بين تنبؤات النماذج المناخية ذات النطاق الخشن والواقع المناخي الدقيق للأنواع قضية رئيسية في أبحاث البيولوجيا المتعلقة بتغير المناخ. في حين أنه من المعروف الآن أن معظم الكائنات الحية لا تعاني من الظروف المناخية المسجلة في محطات الطقس، إلا أن هناك القليل من المعلومات حول التناقضات بين المناخات الدقيقة ودرجات الحرارة العالمية المستكملة المستخدمة في نماذج توزيع الأنواع، وعواقبها على أداء الكائنات الحية. لمعالجة هذه المشكلة، قمنا بفحص عدم التجانس الزماني المكاني الدقيق في الهواء ومظلة المحاصيل ودرجات حرارة التربة للمناظر الطبيعية الزراعية في جبال الأنديز الإكوادورية وقارناها بتنبؤات الشبكات المناخية العالمية المستكملة. تم قياس السلاسل الزمنية لدرجة الحرارة في الهواء والمظلة والتربة لـ 108 موقعًا على ثلاثة ارتفاعات وتم تحليلها باستخدام تحويل فورييه. ثم تم رسم خرائط التناقضات بين درجات الحرارة المحلية مقابل الشبكات العالمية المستكملة وآثارها على أداء الآفات وتحليلها باستخدام مجموعة الأدوات الإحصائية لنظم المعلومات الجغرافية. أظهرت نتائجنا أن التنبؤات العالمية المستكملة تزيد عن التقديرات بنسبة 77.5±10 ٪ وتقل عن التقديرات بنسبة 82.1±12 ٪ من الحد الأدنى المحلي والحد الأقصى لدرجات حرارة الهواء المسجلة في الشبكة المدروسة. كانت التعديلات الإضافية في درجات حرارة الهواء المحلية بسبب التخزين المؤقت الحراري لمظلات النباتات (من - 2.7 درجة كلفن خلال النهار إلى 1.3 درجة كلفن خلال الليل) والتربة (من - 4.9 درجة كلفن خلال النهار إلى 6.7 درجة كلفن خلال الليل) مع تأثير كبير لظاهرة المحاصيل على تأثير العازل. أثرت هذه التناقضات بين درجات الحرارة المستكملة والمحلية بشدة على التنبؤات بأداء آفة المحاصيل خارجة الحرارة حيث تنبأت درجات الحرارة المستكملة بمعدلات نمو الآفات 2.3–4.3 مرة أقل من تلك التي تنبأت بها درجات الحرارة المحلية. توفر هذه الدراسة معلومات كمية عن محدودية البيانات المناخية ذات النطاق الخشن لالتقاط واقع البيئة المناخية التي تعاني منها الكائنات الحية. في المناطق غير المتجانسة للغاية مثل الجبال الاستوائية، يجب توخي الحذر عند استخدام النماذج العالمية لاستنتاج العمليات البيولوجية على المستوى المحلي.

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.

Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI) facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming) were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05), respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05) higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat.

Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Geostatistical techniques were applied and a series of spatial indicators were calculated (occupation, aggregation, location, dispersion, spatial autocorrelation and overlap) to characterize the spatial distributions of European anchovy and sardine during summer. Two ecosystems were compared for this purpose, both located in the Mediterranean Sea: the Strait of Sicily (upwelling area) and the North Aegean Sea (continental shelf area, influenced by freshwater). Although the biomass of anchovy and sardine presented high interannual variability in both areas, the location of the centres of gravity and the main spatial patches of their populations were very similar between years. The size of the patches representing the dominant part of the abundance (80%) was mostly ecosystem- and species-specific. Occupation (area of presence) appears to be shaped by the extent of suitable habitats in each ecosystem whereas aggregation patterns (how the populations are distributed within the area of presence) were species-specific and related to levels of population biomass. In the upwelling area, both species showed consistently higher occupation values compared to the continental shelf area. Certain characteristics of the spatial distribution of sardine (e.g. spreading area, overlapping with anchovy) differed substantially between the two ecosystems. Principal component analysis of geostatistical and spatial indicators revealed that biomass was significantly related to a suite of, rather than single, spatial indicators. At the spatial scale of our study, strong correlations emerged between biomass and the first principal component axis with highly positive loadings for occupation, aggregation and patchiness, independently of species and ecosystem. Overlapping between anchovy and sardine increased with the increase of sardine biomass but decreased with the increase of anchovy. This contrasting pattern was attributed to the location of the respective major patches combined with the specific occupation patterns of the two species. The potential use of spatial indices as auxiliary stock monitoring indicators is discussed.

A theoretical basis for Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management (EBFM) was derived for pelagic fish by applying marine ecology theory of analytical relationships of predator-prey biological production transfers between trophic levels to FAO guidelines for an ecosystem approach to fisheries. The aim is to describe a simple method for data-limited fisheries to estimate ecosystem-based FMSY and how EBFM modellers could mimic the way natural fish communities function for maintaining ecological processes of biological production, biomass and ecosystem stability. Ecosystem stability (ES) FMSY were estimated by proportion of biological production allocated to predators, giving ESFMSY of 0.23 for small pelagic and 0.27 for pelagic finfish, prioritising ecosystem over economics. To maintain both stability and biomass (SB) a full pelagic EBFM SBFMSY of about 0.08 was obtained for both small pelagic and pelagic finfish, having mostly ecosystem considerations. As the FMSY are single-species averages of catchable species targeted in a specific trophic level, multispecies fishing mortalities were proportioned by the biological production of each species in the trophic level. This way catches for each species are consistent with the average ecosystem FMSY for a trophic level. The theoretical estimates gave similar results to other fisheries for sustainable fish catches that maintain the fishery ecosystem processes. They were also tested using six tropical Ecopath Models and showed the effects of imposing commercial fishing mortalities on predominantly EBFM conditions. The ecosystem stability ESFMSY is suggested to be investigated for sustainable fish catches and the full EBFM SBFMSY for protected areas or recovery of heavily depleted stocks.

Large-scale climate processes influence many aspects of ecology including breeding phenology, reproductive success and survival across a wide range of taxa. Some effects are direct, for example, in temperate-zone birds, ambient temperature is an important cue enabling breeding effort to coincide with maximum food availability, and earlier breeding in response to warmer springs has been documented in many species. In other cases, time-lags of up to several years in ecological responses have been reported, with effects mediated through biotic mechanisms such as growth rates or abundance of food supplies. Here we use 23 years of data for a temperate woodland bird species, the great tit (Parus major), breeding in deciduous woodland in eastern England to demonstrate a time-lagged linear relationship between the on-set of egg laying and the winter index of the North Atlantic Oscillation such that timing can be predicted from the winter index for the previous year. Thus the timing of bird breeding (and, by inference, the timing of spring events in general) can be predicted one year in advance. We also show that the relationship with the winter index appears to arise through an abiotic time-lag with local spring warmth in our study area. Examining this link between local conditions and larger-scale processes in the longer-term showed that, in the past, significant relationships with the immediately preceding winter index were more common than those with the time-lagged index, and especially so from the late 1930s to the early 1970s. However, from the mid 1970s onwards, the time-lagged relationship has become the most significant, suggesting a recent change in climate patterns. The strength of the current time-lagged relationship suggests that it might have relevance for other temperature-dependent ecological relationships.