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We used observed climate data, an ensemble of four GCM-RCM combinations (global and regional climate models) and the water balance model mGROWA to estimate present and future groundwater recharge for the intensively-used Thau lagoon catchment in southern France. In addition to a highly resolved soil map, soil moisture distributions obtained from SAR-images (Synthetic Aperture Radar) were used to derive the spatial distribution of soil parameters covering the full simulation domain. Doing so helped us to assess the impact of different soil parameter sources on the modelled groundwater recharge levels. Groundwater recharge was simulated in monthly time steps using the ensemble approach and analysed in its spatial and temporal variability. The soil parameters originating from both sources led to very similar groundwater recharge rates, proving that soil parameters derived from SAR images may replace traditionally used soil maps in regions where soil maps are sparse or missing. Additionally, we showed that the variance in different GCM-RCMs influences the projected magnitude of future groundwater recharge change significantly more than the variance in the soil parameter distributions derived from the two different sources. For the period between 1950 and 2100, climate change impacts based on the climate model ensemble indicated that overall groundwater recharge will possibly show a low to moderate decrease in the Thau catchment. However, as no clear trend resulted from the ensemble simulations, reliable recommendations for adapting the regional groundwater management to changed available groundwater volumes could not be derived.

The UBL/CLU (urban boundary layer/couche limite urbaine) observation and modelling campaign is a side-project of the regional photochemistry campaign ESCOMPTE. UBL/CLU focuses on the dynamics and thermodynamics of the urban boundary layer of Marseille, on the Mediterranean coast of France. The objective of UBL/CLU is to document the four-dimensional structure of the urban boundary layer and its relation to the heat and moisture exchanges between the urban canopy and the atmosphere during periods of low wind conditions, from June 4 to July 16, 2001. The project took advantage of the comprehensive observational set-up of the ESCOMPTE campaign over the Berre-Marseille area, especially the ground-based remote sensing, airborne measurements, and the intensive documentation of the regional meteorology. Additional instrumentation was installed as part of UBL/CLU. Analysis objectives focus on (i) validation of several energy balance computational schemes such as LUMPS, TEB and SM2-U, (ii) ground truth and urban canopy signatures suitable for the estimation of urban albedos and aerodynamic surface temperatures from satellite data, (iii) high resolution mapping of urban land cover, land-use and aerodynamic parameters used in UBL models, and (iv) testing the ability of high resolution atmospheric models to simulate the structure of the UBL during land and sea breezes, and the related transport and diffusion of pollutants over different districts of the city. This paper presents initial results from such analyses and details of the overall experimental set-up.

In this paper, a stochastic model is used to simulate daily minimum temperature time series coming from observations and two CMIP5 climate models (IPSL-CM5A-MR and CNRM-CM5) in order to analyze the changes in cold wave number and proportions under future climate conditions. The stochastic model allows computing 100 temperature time series for each different source (observation or climate model), and for 22 locations in France, which enables inferring the statistical significance of the changes. Two future time periods, near (around 2010–2060) and far future (around 2050–2100), and two RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered, while 3 different thresholds are used to identify cold waves: 0 °C and the 10th and 5th percentiles of observed wintertime (December–January–February) daily minimum temperature distribution. The results show that both models project a significantly lower number of cold waves in the future, all durations considered, but the changes mainly concern the proportion of the longest cold waves (10 days and more). The decreases are higher with IPSL-CM5A-MR than with CNRM-CM5. The main driver of this change is the decreasing frequency of the observation based thresholds in the future, which is higher for IPSL-CM5-MR model because the impact of a higher mean is enhanced by a decrease in the variance.

The interactions between water, sediment and biology in fluvial systems are complex and driven by multiple forcing mechanisms across a range of spatial and temporal scales. In a changing climate, some meteorological drivers are expected to become more extreme with, for example, more prolonged droughts or more frequent flooding. Such environmental changes will potentially have significant consequences for the human populations and ecosystems that are dependent on riverscapes, but our understanding of fluvial system response to external drivers remains incomplete. As a consequence, many of the predictions of the effects of climate change have a large uncertainty that hampers effective management of fluvial environments. Amongst the array of methodological approaches available to scientists and engineers charged with improving that understanding, is physical modelling. Here, we review the role of physical modelling for understanding both biotic and abiotic processes and their interactions in fluvial systems. The approaches currently employed for scaling and representing fluvial processes in physical models are explored, from 1:1 experiments that reproduce processes at real-time or time scales of 10−1-100 years, to analogue models that compress spatial scales to simulate processes over time scales exceeding 102–103 years. An important gap in existing capabilities identified in this study is the representation of fluvial systems over time scales relevant for managing the immediate impacts of global climatic change; 101 – 102 years, the representation of variable forcing (e.g. storms), and the representation of biological processes. Research to fill this knowledge gap is proposed, including examples of how the time scale of study in directly scaled models could be extended and the time scale of landscape models could be compressed in the future, through the use of lightweight sediments, and innovative approaches for representing vegetation and biostabilisation in fluvial environments at condensed time scales, such as small-scale vegetation, plastic plants and polymers. It is argued that by improving physical modelling capabilities and coupling physical and numerical models, it should be possible to improve understanding of the complex interactions and processes induced by variable forcing within fluvial systems over a broader range of time scales. This will enable policymakers and environmental managers to help reduce and mitigate the risks associated with the impacts of climate change in rivers.

Low bar spacing trash racks have been widely investigated in order to guide fish toward bypasses. In addition to this biological function, the formulae to predict head losses, for hydropower plants, are still being discussed. This paper investigates and models the global head losses generated by inclined trash racks with six different bar shapes and two different supports, in an open channel for six angles and two low bar spacings. The girders that supported the trash racks were U-shaped and different profile shapes. In addition to the previously studied rectangular and “hydrodynamic” bars, four new bar shapes, combining different leading and trailing edges, were investigated. Water depths were measured upstream and downstream of the rack for each configuration, and head loss coefficients were characterized and modeled. Three of these new bar shapes generated lower head losses than the hydrodynamic bar shape. The most efficient bar profile reduced the shape coefficient by 40% compared to the hydrodynamic profile and by 67% compared to the conventional rectangular profile. Concerning the supports, the use of a profiled girder to replace a conventional U-shaped girder also significantly reduced the head losses. The addition of the girder effect in a global formula increased its accuracy in predicting head losses of inclined trash racks upstream of hydropower plants.

AbstractThe wintertime midlatitude atmospheric circulation is evaluated in CMIP6 models. The biases have been reduced since CMIP5 although the low‐level flow is still too zonal. CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections of 850 hPa zonal wind are then analyzed and are consistent under the RCP8.5 and the SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively. A poleward shift is identified in the Pacific, while a tripole structure is found in the North Atlantic: The zonal wind strengthens over Western Europe and decreases north and south. A multiple linear regression allows us to quantify the contribution of different drivers to the intermodel spread in zonal wind projections. It supports the importance of projected tropical warming and changes in the stratospheric vortex but also suggests a contribution of the asymmetry in the projected surface warming of the equatorial Pacific and of the present‐day biases in the eddy‐driven jet position. The North Atlantic warming hole plays a weaker role.