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Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology
descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2024Publisher:American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Authors: Mark W. Smith; Thomas Willis; Elizabeth Mroz; William H. M. James; +3 Authors
Mark W. Smith; Thomas Willis; Elizabeth Mroz; William H. M. James; Megan J. Klaar; Simon N. Gosling; Christopher J. Thomas;
doi: 10.1126/science.adk8755
pmid: 38723080
doi: 10.1126/science.adk8755
pmid: 38723080
Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.
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The following results are related to Energy Research. Are you interested to view more results? Visit OpenAIRE - Explore.

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Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology
descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2024Publisher:American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Authors: Mark W. Smith; Thomas Willis; Elizabeth Mroz; William H. M. James; +3 Authors
Mark W. Smith; Thomas Willis; Elizabeth Mroz; William H. M. James; Megan J. Klaar; Simon N. Gosling; Christopher J. Thomas;
doi: 10.1126/science.adk8755
pmid: 38723080
doi: 10.1126/science.adk8755
pmid: 38723080
Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths.
Sciencearrow_drop_down
Science
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Science
Article . 2024
Data sources: Europe PubMed Central
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3
citations 3
popularity Average
influence Top 10%
impulse Average
Powered by BIP!
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Sciencearrow_drop_down
Science
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
Science
Article . 2024
Data sources: Europe PubMed Central
linkLink to
shareshareShare
citeCite
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Energy Research
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