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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2017Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Authors:Giannini, Tereza C.;
Giannini, Tereza C.
Giannini, Tereza C. in OpenAIREMaia-Silva, Camila;
Maia-Silva, Camila
Maia-Silva, Camila in OpenAIREAcosta, Andre L.;
Acosta, Andre L.
Acosta, Andre L. in OpenAIREJaffé, Rodolfo;
+8 AuthorsJaffé, Rodolfo
Jaffé, Rodolfo in OpenAIREGiannini, Tereza C.;
Giannini, Tereza C.
Giannini, Tereza C. in OpenAIREMaia-Silva, Camila;
Maia-Silva, Camila
Maia-Silva, Camila in OpenAIREAcosta, Andre L.;
Acosta, Andre L.
Acosta, Andre L. in OpenAIREJaffé, Rodolfo;
Jaffé, Rodolfo
Jaffé, Rodolfo in OpenAIRECarvalho, Airton T.;
Carvalho, Airton T.
Carvalho, Airton T. in OpenAIREMartins, Celso F.;
Zanella, Fernando C. V.;Martins, Celso F.
Martins, Celso F. in OpenAIRECarvalho, Carlos A. L.;
Hrncir, Michael;Carvalho, Carlos A. L.
Carvalho, Carlos A. L. in OpenAIRESaraiva, Antonio M.;
Siqueira, José Oswaldo;Saraiva, Antonio M.
Saraiva, Antonio M. in OpenAIREImperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L.;
Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L.
Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L. in OpenAIREIn the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil, populations of native bees can be jeopardized by future climate change. The present study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on a native stingless bee (Melipona subnitida Ducke). This species is a locally important pollinator of wild and crop plants, also exploited for honey production by regional beekeepers. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of M. subnitida. We found a potential shift in future areas where species can find climatically suitable habitats toward the edges of the current pollinator distribution with a consequent central disconnection, which can threaten species dispersal and gene flow. We propose to reconnect the remaining suitable areas through conservation and restoration programs based on the distribution of the plant species that are used by this bee as source of pollen and nectar and propose also, other strategies that aim to increase the welfare of local people
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess Routesbronze 34 citations 34 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2017Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Authors:Giannini, Tereza C.;
Giannini, Tereza C.
Giannini, Tereza C. in OpenAIREMaia-Silva, Camila;
Maia-Silva, Camila
Maia-Silva, Camila in OpenAIREAcosta, Andre L.;
Acosta, Andre L.
Acosta, Andre L. in OpenAIREJaffé, Rodolfo;
+8 AuthorsJaffé, Rodolfo
Jaffé, Rodolfo in OpenAIREGiannini, Tereza C.;
Giannini, Tereza C.
Giannini, Tereza C. in OpenAIREMaia-Silva, Camila;
Maia-Silva, Camila
Maia-Silva, Camila in OpenAIREAcosta, Andre L.;
Acosta, Andre L.
Acosta, Andre L. in OpenAIREJaffé, Rodolfo;
Jaffé, Rodolfo
Jaffé, Rodolfo in OpenAIRECarvalho, Airton T.;
Carvalho, Airton T.
Carvalho, Airton T. in OpenAIREMartins, Celso F.;
Zanella, Fernando C. V.;Martins, Celso F.
Martins, Celso F. in OpenAIRECarvalho, Carlos A. L.;
Hrncir, Michael;Carvalho, Carlos A. L.
Carvalho, Carlos A. L. in OpenAIRESaraiva, Antonio M.;
Siqueira, José Oswaldo;Saraiva, Antonio M.
Saraiva, Antonio M. in OpenAIREImperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L.;
Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L.
Imperatriz-Fonseca, Vera L. in OpenAIREIn the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil, populations of native bees can be jeopardized by future climate change. The present study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on a native stingless bee (Melipona subnitida Ducke). This species is a locally important pollinator of wild and crop plants, also exploited for honey production by regional beekeepers. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of M. subnitida. We found a potential shift in future areas where species can find climatically suitable habitats toward the edges of the current pollinator distribution with a consequent central disconnection, which can threaten species dispersal and gene flow. We propose to reconnect the remaining suitable areas through conservation and restoration programs based on the distribution of the plant species that are used by this bee as source of pollen and nectar and propose also, other strategies that aim to increase the welfare of local people
Hyper Article en Lig... arrow_drop_down add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s13592-017-0523-5&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess Routesbronze 34 citations 34 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert Hyper Article en Lig... arrow_drop_down add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s13592-017-0523-5&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Journal 2017 ArgentinaPublisher:Public Library of Science (PLoS) Authors:Tereza Cristina Giannini;
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Tereza Cristina Giannini in OpenAIREWilian França Costa;
Wilian França Costa
Wilian França Costa in OpenAIREGuaraci Duran Cordeiro;
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro in OpenAIREVera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca;
+3 AuthorsVera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca
Vera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca in OpenAIRETereza Cristina Giannini;
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Tereza Cristina Giannini in OpenAIREWilian França Costa;
Wilian França Costa
Wilian França Costa in OpenAIREGuaraci Duran Cordeiro;
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro in OpenAIREVera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca;
Vera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca
Vera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca in OpenAIREAntônio Mauro Saraiva;
Antônio Mauro Saraiva
Antônio Mauro Saraiva in OpenAIREJacobus C. Biesmeijer;
Jacobus C. Biesmeijer
Jacobus C. Biesmeijer in OpenAIRELucas A. Garibaldi;
Lucas A. Garibaldi
Lucas A. Garibaldi in OpenAIRELa pollinisation animale peut avoir un impact sur la sécurité alimentaire car de nombreuses cultures dépendent des pollinisateurs pour produire des fruits et des graines. Cependant, les effets du changement climatique projeté sur les pollinisateurs de cultures et donc sur la production végétale ne sont pas encore clairs, en particulier pour les pollinisateurs sauvages et les réponses communautaires globales. À l'aide de la modélisation de la répartition des espèces, nous avons évalué les effets du changement climatique sur la répartition géographique de 95 espèces de pollinisateurs de 13 cultures brésiliennes, et nous avons estimé leurs impacts relatifs sur la production végétale. Nous avons décrit ces effets au niveau de la municipalité, et nous avons évalué les cultures qui ont été cultivées, le volume de production brute de ces cultures, la valeur totale de la production végétale et le nombre d'habitants. Dans l'ensemble, en tenant compte de toutes les espèces cultivées, nous avons constaté que le changement climatique prévu réduira la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs de près de 0,13 d'ici 2050. Nos modèles prédisent que près de 90 % des municipalités analysées seront confrontées à la perte d'espèces. Les diminutions de la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs ont varié de 0,08 (kaki) à 0,25 (tomate) et affecteront potentiellement 9 % (mandarine) à 100 % (tournesol) des municipalités qui produisent chaque culture. Les municipalités du centre et du sud du Brésil seront potentiellement confrontées à des impacts relativement importants sur la production agricole en raison de la perte de pollinisateurs. En revanche, certaines municipalités du nord du Brésil, en particulier dans le nord-ouest de l'Amazonie, pourraient potentiellement bénéficier du changement climatique car les pollinisateurs de certaines cultures pourraient augmenter. La baisse de la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs se trouve dans un grand nombre de municipalités ayant le PIB le plus faible et affectera également probablement certains endroits où la production agricole est élevée (20 % à 90 % du PIB) et où le nombre d'habitants est également élevé (plus de 6 millions de personnes). Notre étude met en évidence les municipalités clés où les cultures sont économiquement importantes et où les pollinisateurs seront potentiellement confrontés aux pires conditions en raison du changement climatique. Cependant, les pollinisateurs peuvent être en mesure de trouver de nouvelles zones appropriées qui ont le potentiel d'améliorer la production végétale. Les résultats présentés ici pourraient guider les décisions politiques en matière d'adaptation au changement climatique et de prévention de la perte d'espèces pollinisatrices et de production végétale. La polinización animal puede afectar a la seguridad alimentaria, ya que muchos cultivos dependen de los polinizadores para producir frutos y semillas. Sin embargo, los efectos del cambio climático proyectado en los polinizadores de cultivos y, por lo tanto, en la producción de cultivos aún no están claros, especialmente para los polinizadores silvestres y las respuestas agregadas de la comunidad. Utilizando modelos de distribución de especies, evaluamos los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución geográfica de 95 especies polinizadoras de 13 cultivos brasileños, y estimamos sus impactos relativos en la producción de cultivos. Describimos estos efectos a nivel de municipio, y evaluamos los cultivos que se cultivaron, el volumen de producción bruta de estos cultivos, el valor total de la producción de cultivos y el número de habitantes. En general, considerando todas las especies de cultivos, encontramos que el cambio climático proyectado reducirá la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores en casi 0.13 para 2050. Nuestros modelos predicen que casi el 90% de los municipios analizados se enfrentarán a la pérdida de especies. Las disminuciones en la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores variaron de 0.08 (caqui) a 0.25 (tomate) y potencialmente afectarán del 9% (mandarina) al 100% (girasol) de los municipios que producen cada cultivo. Los municipios del centro y sur de Brasil potencialmente enfrentarán impactos relativamente grandes en la producción de cultivos debido a la pérdida de polinizadores. Por el contrario, algunos municipios del norte de Brasil, particularmente en el noroeste de la Amazonía, podrían beneficiarse del cambio climático porque los polinizadores de algunos cultivos pueden aumentar. La disminución en la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores se encuentra en un gran número de municipios con el PIB más bajo y también es probable que afecte a algunos lugares donde la producción de cultivos es alta (20% a 90% del PIB) y donde el número de habitantes también es alto (más de 6 millones de personas). Nuestro estudio destaca los municipios clave donde los cultivos son económicamente importantes y donde los polinizadores enfrentarán potencialmente las peores condiciones debido al cambio climático. Sin embargo, los polinizadores pueden ser capaces de encontrar nuevas áreas adecuadas que tienen el potencial de mejorar la producción de cultivos. Los resultados que se muestran aquí podrían guiar las decisiones políticas para adaptarse al cambio climático y para prevenir la pérdida de especies polinizadoras y la producción de cultivos. Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production. يمكن أن يؤثر التلقيح الحيواني على الأمن الغذائي لأن العديد من المحاصيل تعتمد على الملقحات لإنتاج الفواكه والبذور. ومع ذلك، فإن آثار تغير المناخ المتوقع على ملقحات المحاصيل وبالتالي على إنتاج المحاصيل لا تزال غير واضحة، خاصة بالنسبة للملقحات البرية والاستجابات المجتمعية الكلية. باستخدام النمذجة التوزيعية للأنواع، قمنا بتقييم آثار تغير المناخ على التوزيع الجغرافي لـ 95 نوعًا من الملقحات لـ 13 محصولًا برازيليًا، وقمنا بتقدير آثارها النسبية على إنتاج المحاصيل. وصفنا هذه الآثار على مستوى البلدية، وقمنا بتقييم المحاصيل التي تمت زراعتها، وحجم الإنتاج الإجمالي لهذه المحاصيل، والقيمة الإجمالية لإنتاج المحاصيل، وعدد السكان. بشكل عام، بالنظر إلى جميع أنواع المحاصيل، وجدنا أن التغير المناخي المتوقع سيقلل من احتمال حدوث الملقحات بنحو 0.13 بحلول عام 2050. تتنبأ نماذجنا بأن ما يقرب من 90 ٪ من البلديات التي تم تحليلها ستواجه فقدان الأنواع. تراوح الانخفاض في احتمال حدوث الملقحات من 0.08 (البرسيمون) إلى 0.25 (الطماطم) ومن المحتمل أن يؤثر على 9 ٪ (الماندرين) إلى 100 ٪ (عباد الشمس) من البلديات التي تنتج كل محصول. من المحتمل أن تواجه البلديات في وسط وجنوب البرازيل تأثيرات كبيرة نسبيًا على إنتاج المحاصيل بسبب فقدان الملقحات. وعلى النقيض من ذلك، يمكن لبعض البلديات في شمال البرازيل، ولا سيما في شمال غرب الأمازون، أن تستفيد من تغير المناخ لأن الملقحات لبعض المحاصيل قد تزيد. تم العثور على انخفاض في احتمال حدوث الملقحات في عدد كبير من البلديات ذات أدنى ناتج محلي إجمالي ومن المحتمل أيضًا أن يؤثر على بعض الأماكن التي يكون فيها إنتاج المحاصيل مرتفعًا (20 ٪ إلى 90 ٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي) وحيث يكون عدد السكان مرتفعًا أيضًا (أكثر من 6 ملايين شخص). تسلط دراستنا الضوء على البلديات الرئيسية حيث المحاصيل مهمة اقتصاديًا وحيث من المحتمل أن تواجه الملقحات أسوأ الظروف بسبب تغير المناخ. ومع ذلك، قد تتمكن الملقحات من العثور على مناطق مناسبة جديدة لديها القدرة على تحسين إنتاج المحاصيل. يمكن للنتائج الموضحة هنا أن توجه قرارات السياسة للتكيف مع تغير المناخ ومنع فقدان أنواع الملقحات وإنتاج المحاصيل.
add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen gold 79 citations 79 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Journal 2017 ArgentinaPublisher:Public Library of Science (PLoS) Authors:Tereza Cristina Giannini;
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Tereza Cristina Giannini in OpenAIREWilian França Costa;
Wilian França Costa
Wilian França Costa in OpenAIREGuaraci Duran Cordeiro;
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro in OpenAIREVera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca;
+3 AuthorsVera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca
Vera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca in OpenAIRETereza Cristina Giannini;
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Tereza Cristina Giannini in OpenAIREWilian França Costa;
Wilian França Costa
Wilian França Costa in OpenAIREGuaraci Duran Cordeiro;
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro
Guaraci Duran Cordeiro in OpenAIREVera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca;
Vera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca
Vera Lúcia Imperatriz-Fonseca in OpenAIREAntônio Mauro Saraiva;
Antônio Mauro Saraiva
Antônio Mauro Saraiva in OpenAIREJacobus C. Biesmeijer;
Jacobus C. Biesmeijer
Jacobus C. Biesmeijer in OpenAIRELucas A. Garibaldi;
Lucas A. Garibaldi
Lucas A. Garibaldi in OpenAIRELa pollinisation animale peut avoir un impact sur la sécurité alimentaire car de nombreuses cultures dépendent des pollinisateurs pour produire des fruits et des graines. Cependant, les effets du changement climatique projeté sur les pollinisateurs de cultures et donc sur la production végétale ne sont pas encore clairs, en particulier pour les pollinisateurs sauvages et les réponses communautaires globales. À l'aide de la modélisation de la répartition des espèces, nous avons évalué les effets du changement climatique sur la répartition géographique de 95 espèces de pollinisateurs de 13 cultures brésiliennes, et nous avons estimé leurs impacts relatifs sur la production végétale. Nous avons décrit ces effets au niveau de la municipalité, et nous avons évalué les cultures qui ont été cultivées, le volume de production brute de ces cultures, la valeur totale de la production végétale et le nombre d'habitants. Dans l'ensemble, en tenant compte de toutes les espèces cultivées, nous avons constaté que le changement climatique prévu réduira la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs de près de 0,13 d'ici 2050. Nos modèles prédisent que près de 90 % des municipalités analysées seront confrontées à la perte d'espèces. Les diminutions de la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs ont varié de 0,08 (kaki) à 0,25 (tomate) et affecteront potentiellement 9 % (mandarine) à 100 % (tournesol) des municipalités qui produisent chaque culture. Les municipalités du centre et du sud du Brésil seront potentiellement confrontées à des impacts relativement importants sur la production agricole en raison de la perte de pollinisateurs. En revanche, certaines municipalités du nord du Brésil, en particulier dans le nord-ouest de l'Amazonie, pourraient potentiellement bénéficier du changement climatique car les pollinisateurs de certaines cultures pourraient augmenter. La baisse de la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs se trouve dans un grand nombre de municipalités ayant le PIB le plus faible et affectera également probablement certains endroits où la production agricole est élevée (20 % à 90 % du PIB) et où le nombre d'habitants est également élevé (plus de 6 millions de personnes). Notre étude met en évidence les municipalités clés où les cultures sont économiquement importantes et où les pollinisateurs seront potentiellement confrontés aux pires conditions en raison du changement climatique. Cependant, les pollinisateurs peuvent être en mesure de trouver de nouvelles zones appropriées qui ont le potentiel d'améliorer la production végétale. Les résultats présentés ici pourraient guider les décisions politiques en matière d'adaptation au changement climatique et de prévention de la perte d'espèces pollinisatrices et de production végétale. La polinización animal puede afectar a la seguridad alimentaria, ya que muchos cultivos dependen de los polinizadores para producir frutos y semillas. Sin embargo, los efectos del cambio climático proyectado en los polinizadores de cultivos y, por lo tanto, en la producción de cultivos aún no están claros, especialmente para los polinizadores silvestres y las respuestas agregadas de la comunidad. Utilizando modelos de distribución de especies, evaluamos los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución geográfica de 95 especies polinizadoras de 13 cultivos brasileños, y estimamos sus impactos relativos en la producción de cultivos. Describimos estos efectos a nivel de municipio, y evaluamos los cultivos que se cultivaron, el volumen de producción bruta de estos cultivos, el valor total de la producción de cultivos y el número de habitantes. En general, considerando todas las especies de cultivos, encontramos que el cambio climático proyectado reducirá la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores en casi 0.13 para 2050. Nuestros modelos predicen que casi el 90% de los municipios analizados se enfrentarán a la pérdida de especies. Las disminuciones en la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores variaron de 0.08 (caqui) a 0.25 (tomate) y potencialmente afectarán del 9% (mandarina) al 100% (girasol) de los municipios que producen cada cultivo. Los municipios del centro y sur de Brasil potencialmente enfrentarán impactos relativamente grandes en la producción de cultivos debido a la pérdida de polinizadores. Por el contrario, algunos municipios del norte de Brasil, particularmente en el noroeste de la Amazonía, podrían beneficiarse del cambio climático porque los polinizadores de algunos cultivos pueden aumentar. La disminución en la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores se encuentra en un gran número de municipios con el PIB más bajo y también es probable que afecte a algunos lugares donde la producción de cultivos es alta (20% a 90% del PIB) y donde el número de habitantes también es alto (más de 6 millones de personas). Nuestro estudio destaca los municipios clave donde los cultivos son económicamente importantes y donde los polinizadores enfrentarán potencialmente las peores condiciones debido al cambio climático. Sin embargo, los polinizadores pueden ser capaces de encontrar nuevas áreas adecuadas que tienen el potencial de mejorar la producción de cultivos. Los resultados que se muestran aquí podrían guiar las decisiones políticas para adaptarse al cambio climático y para prevenir la pérdida de especies polinizadoras y la producción de cultivos. Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production. يمكن أن يؤثر التلقيح الحيواني على الأمن الغذائي لأن العديد من المحاصيل تعتمد على الملقحات لإنتاج الفواكه والبذور. ومع ذلك، فإن آثار تغير المناخ المتوقع على ملقحات المحاصيل وبالتالي على إنتاج المحاصيل لا تزال غير واضحة، خاصة بالنسبة للملقحات البرية والاستجابات المجتمعية الكلية. باستخدام النمذجة التوزيعية للأنواع، قمنا بتقييم آثار تغير المناخ على التوزيع الجغرافي لـ 95 نوعًا من الملقحات لـ 13 محصولًا برازيليًا، وقمنا بتقدير آثارها النسبية على إنتاج المحاصيل. وصفنا هذه الآثار على مستوى البلدية، وقمنا بتقييم المحاصيل التي تمت زراعتها، وحجم الإنتاج الإجمالي لهذه المحاصيل، والقيمة الإجمالية لإنتاج المحاصيل، وعدد السكان. بشكل عام، بالنظر إلى جميع أنواع المحاصيل، وجدنا أن التغير المناخي المتوقع سيقلل من احتمال حدوث الملقحات بنحو 0.13 بحلول عام 2050. تتنبأ نماذجنا بأن ما يقرب من 90 ٪ من البلديات التي تم تحليلها ستواجه فقدان الأنواع. تراوح الانخفاض في احتمال حدوث الملقحات من 0.08 (البرسيمون) إلى 0.25 (الطماطم) ومن المحتمل أن يؤثر على 9 ٪ (الماندرين) إلى 100 ٪ (عباد الشمس) من البلديات التي تنتج كل محصول. من المحتمل أن تواجه البلديات في وسط وجنوب البرازيل تأثيرات كبيرة نسبيًا على إنتاج المحاصيل بسبب فقدان الملقحات. وعلى النقيض من ذلك، يمكن لبعض البلديات في شمال البرازيل، ولا سيما في شمال غرب الأمازون، أن تستفيد من تغير المناخ لأن الملقحات لبعض المحاصيل قد تزيد. تم العثور على انخفاض في احتمال حدوث الملقحات في عدد كبير من البلديات ذات أدنى ناتج محلي إجمالي ومن المحتمل أيضًا أن يؤثر على بعض الأماكن التي يكون فيها إنتاج المحاصيل مرتفعًا (20 ٪ إلى 90 ٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي) وحيث يكون عدد السكان مرتفعًا أيضًا (أكثر من 6 ملايين شخص). تسلط دراستنا الضوء على البلديات الرئيسية حيث المحاصيل مهمة اقتصاديًا وحيث من المحتمل أن تواجه الملقحات أسوأ الظروف بسبب تغير المناخ. ومع ذلك، قد تتمكن الملقحات من العثور على مناطق مناسبة جديدة لديها القدرة على تحسين إنتاج المحاصيل. يمكن للنتائج الموضحة هنا أن توجه قرارات السياسة للتكيف مع تغير المناخ ومنع فقدان أنواع الملقحات وإنتاج المحاصيل.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 2023 United Kingdom, Canada, FrancePublisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Funded by:NSERC, NSF | Social and ecological dri..., EC | PoshBeeNSERC ,NSF| Social and ecological drivers of life history evolution in wild bees ,EC| PoshBeeAuthors:Harry Siviter;
Harry Siviter
Harry Siviter in OpenAIREAdrian Fisher;
Adrian Fisher
Adrian Fisher in OpenAIREBoris Baer;
Boris Baer
Boris Baer in OpenAIREMark J. F. Brown;
+22 AuthorsMark J. F. Brown
Mark J. F. Brown in OpenAIREHarry Siviter;
Harry Siviter
Harry Siviter in OpenAIREAdrian Fisher;
Adrian Fisher
Adrian Fisher in OpenAIREBoris Baer;
Boris Baer
Boris Baer in OpenAIREMark J. F. Brown;
I. F. Camargo;Mark J. F. Brown
Mark J. F. Brown in OpenAIREJerry S. Cole;
Jerry S. Cole
Jerry S. Cole in OpenAIREYves Le Conte;
Yves Le Conte
Yves Le Conte in OpenAIREBriann Dorin;
Briann Dorin
Briann Dorin in OpenAIREJay D. Evans;
Jay D. Evans
Jay D. Evans in OpenAIREWalter M. Farina;
Walter M. Farina
Walter M. Farina in OpenAIREJulia D. Fine;
Julia D. Fine
Julia D. Fine in OpenAIREL. R. Fischer;
L. R. Fischer
L. R. Fischer in OpenAIREMichael P. D. Garratt;
Michael P. D. Garratt
Michael P. D. Garratt in OpenAIRETereza Cristina Giannini;
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Tereza Cristina Giannini in OpenAIRETuğrul Giray;
Tuğrul Giray
Tuğrul Giray in OpenAIREHongmei Li‐Byarlay;
Hongmei Li‐Byarlay
Hongmei Li‐Byarlay in OpenAIREMargarita M. López‐Uribe;
Margarita M. López‐Uribe
Margarita M. López‐Uribe in OpenAIREJames C. Nieh;
James C. Nieh
James C. Nieh in OpenAIREKimberly Przybyla;
Kimberly Przybyla
Kimberly Przybyla in OpenAIRENigel E. Raine;
Nigel E. Raine
Nigel E. Raine in OpenAIREAllyson M. Ray;
Allyson M. Ray
Allyson M. Ray in OpenAIREGaurav Singh;
Gaurav Singh
Gaurav Singh in OpenAIREMarla Spivak;
Marla Spivak
Marla Spivak in OpenAIREKirsten S. Traynor;
Kirsten S. Traynor
Kirsten S. Traynor in OpenAIREKaren M. Kapheim;
Karen M. Kapheim
Karen M. Kapheim in OpenAIREJon F. Harrison;
Jon F. Harrison
Jon F. Harrison in OpenAIREAbstractGlobal pollinator declines threaten food production and natural ecosystems. The drivers of declines are complicated and driven by numerous factors such as pesticide use, loss of habitat, rising pathogens due to commercial bee keeping and climate change. Halting and reversing pollinator declines will require a multidisciplinary approach and international cooperation. Here, we summarize 20 presentations given in the symposium ‘Protecting pollinators and our food supply: Understanding and managing threats to pollinator health’ at the 19th Congress of the International Union for the Study of Social Insects in San Diego, 2022. We then synthesize the key findings and discuss future research areas such as better understanding the impact of anthropogenic stressors on wild bees.
Insectes Sociaux arrow_drop_down DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Article . 2023License: CC BYData sources: DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRAArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Bristol: Bristol ResearchArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research DirectArticle . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s00040-022-00897-x&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 16 citations 16 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert Insectes Sociaux arrow_drop_down DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Article . 2023License: CC BYData sources: DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRAArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Bristol: Bristol ResearchArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research DirectArticle . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s00040-022-00897-x&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 2023 United Kingdom, Canada, FrancePublisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC Funded by:NSERC, NSF | Social and ecological dri..., EC | PoshBeeNSERC ,NSF| Social and ecological drivers of life history evolution in wild bees ,EC| PoshBeeAuthors:Harry Siviter;
Harry Siviter
Harry Siviter in OpenAIREAdrian Fisher;
Adrian Fisher
Adrian Fisher in OpenAIREBoris Baer;
Boris Baer
Boris Baer in OpenAIREMark J. F. Brown;
+22 AuthorsMark J. F. Brown
Mark J. F. Brown in OpenAIREHarry Siviter;
Harry Siviter
Harry Siviter in OpenAIREAdrian Fisher;
Adrian Fisher
Adrian Fisher in OpenAIREBoris Baer;
Boris Baer
Boris Baer in OpenAIREMark J. F. Brown;
I. F. Camargo;Mark J. F. Brown
Mark J. F. Brown in OpenAIREJerry S. Cole;
Jerry S. Cole
Jerry S. Cole in OpenAIREYves Le Conte;
Yves Le Conte
Yves Le Conte in OpenAIREBriann Dorin;
Briann Dorin
Briann Dorin in OpenAIREJay D. Evans;
Jay D. Evans
Jay D. Evans in OpenAIREWalter M. Farina;
Walter M. Farina
Walter M. Farina in OpenAIREJulia D. Fine;
Julia D. Fine
Julia D. Fine in OpenAIREL. R. Fischer;
L. R. Fischer
L. R. Fischer in OpenAIREMichael P. D. Garratt;
Michael P. D. Garratt
Michael P. D. Garratt in OpenAIRETereza Cristina Giannini;
Tereza Cristina Giannini
Tereza Cristina Giannini in OpenAIRETuğrul Giray;
Tuğrul Giray
Tuğrul Giray in OpenAIREHongmei Li‐Byarlay;
Hongmei Li‐Byarlay
Hongmei Li‐Byarlay in OpenAIREMargarita M. López‐Uribe;
Margarita M. López‐Uribe
Margarita M. López‐Uribe in OpenAIREJames C. Nieh;
James C. Nieh
James C. Nieh in OpenAIREKimberly Przybyla;
Kimberly Przybyla
Kimberly Przybyla in OpenAIRENigel E. Raine;
Nigel E. Raine
Nigel E. Raine in OpenAIREAllyson M. Ray;
Allyson M. Ray
Allyson M. Ray in OpenAIREGaurav Singh;
Gaurav Singh
Gaurav Singh in OpenAIREMarla Spivak;
Marla Spivak
Marla Spivak in OpenAIREKirsten S. Traynor;
Kirsten S. Traynor
Kirsten S. Traynor in OpenAIREKaren M. Kapheim;
Karen M. Kapheim
Karen M. Kapheim in OpenAIREJon F. Harrison;
Jon F. Harrison
Jon F. Harrison in OpenAIREAbstractGlobal pollinator declines threaten food production and natural ecosystems. The drivers of declines are complicated and driven by numerous factors such as pesticide use, loss of habitat, rising pathogens due to commercial bee keeping and climate change. Halting and reversing pollinator declines will require a multidisciplinary approach and international cooperation. Here, we summarize 20 presentations given in the symposium ‘Protecting pollinators and our food supply: Understanding and managing threats to pollinator health’ at the 19th Congress of the International Union for the Study of Social Insects in San Diego, 2022. We then synthesize the key findings and discuss future research areas such as better understanding the impact of anthropogenic stressors on wild bees.
Insectes Sociaux arrow_drop_down DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Article . 2023License: CC BYData sources: DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRAArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Bristol: Bristol ResearchArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research DirectArticle . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s00040-022-00897-x&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen hybrid 16 citations 16 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
more_vert Insectes Sociaux arrow_drop_down DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Article . 2023License: CC BYData sources: DSpace at the University of Guelph (Atrium)Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRAArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Bristol: Bristol ResearchArticle . 2023Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)University of Western Sydney (UWS): Research DirectArticle . 2023License: CC BYData sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1007/s00040-022-00897-x&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu