• Energy Research
• agricultural and veterinary science... close

A novel methodology is proposed to robustly map oil seed rape (OSR) flowering phenology from time series generated from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 (S1) and Sentinel-2 (S2) sensors. The time series are averaged at parcel level, initially for a set of 229 reference parcels for which multiple phenological observations on OSR flowering have been collected from April 21 to May 19, 2018. The set of OSR parcels is extended to a regional sample of 32,355 OSR parcels derived from a regional S2 classification. The study area comprises the northern Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (N) and the southern Bavaria (S) regions in Germany. A method was developed to automatically compute peak flowering at parcel level from the S2 time signature of the Normalized Difference Yellow Index (NDYI) and from the local minimum in S1 VV polarized backscattering coefficients. Peak flowering was determined at a temporal accuracy of 1 to 4 days. A systematic flowering delay of 1 day was observed in the S1 detection compared to S2. Peak flowering differed by 12 days between the N and S. Considerable local variation was observed in the N-S parcel-level flowering gradient. Additional in-situ phenology observations at 70 Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) stations confirm the spatial and temporal consistency between S1 and S2 signatures and flowering phenology across both regions. Conditions during flowering strongly determine OSR yield, therefore, the capacity to continuously characterize spatially the timing of key flowering dates across large areas is key. To illustrate this, expected flowering dates were simulated assuming a single OSR variety with a 425 growing degree days (GDD) requirement to reach flowering. This GDD requirement was calculated based on parcel-level peak flowering dates and temperatures accumulated from 25-km gridded meteorological data. The correlation between simulated and S2 observed peak flowering dates still equaled 0.84 and 0.54 for the N and S respectively. These Sentinel-based parcel-level flowering parameters can be combined with weather data to support in-season predictions of OSR yield, area, and production. Our approach identified the unique temporal signatures of S1 and S2 associated with OSR flowering and can now be applied to monitor OSR phenology for parcels across the globe.

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

AbstractWheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.