• Energy Research

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an expected doubling of human population and tripling of food demand over the next quarter century, posing a range of severe environmental, political, and socio-economic challenges. In some cases, key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are in direct conflict, raising difficult policy and funding decisions, particularly in relation to trade-offs between food production, social inequality, and ecosystem health. In this study, we used a horizon-scanning approach to identify 100 practical or research-focused questions that, if answered, would have the greatest positive impact on addressing these trade-offs and ensuring future productivity and resilience of food-production systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Through direct canvassing of opinions, we obtained 1339 questions from 331 experts based in 55 countries. We then used online voting and participatory workshops to produce a final list of 100 questions divided into 12 thematic sections spanning topics from gender inequality to technological adoption and climate change. Using data on the background of respondents, we show that perspectives and priorities can vary, but they are largely consistent across different professional and geographical contexts. We hope these questions provide a template for establishing new research directions and prioritising funding decisions in sub-Saharan Africa.

This repository contains the supplementary files for: Allen BJ, Hill DJ, Burke AM, Clark M, Marchant R, Stringer LC, Williams DR, Lyon C. 2024. Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B. Description of files This repository contains the BIOME4 output files, the R code used to analyse them, and a selection of data tables summarising the results. netCDFs.zip - The raw BIOME4 outputs cleaned.zip - The cleaned biome datasets, as .csv files, describing the biome attributed to each cell in each time slice, for biomes and megabiomes, and with different human footprints (from the HYDE dataset) removed ranges.zip - Summary tables describing the latitudinal ranges, in each hemisphere, of each biome for each time slice centroids.zip - Summary tables describing the shift of each biome's centroid, in each hemisphere, between time slices counts.zip - Summary tables describing the number of grid cells not adjacent to their attributed biome in the previous time slice biome_conversion.txt - The table for converting between biome and megabiome attribution R_code.zip - All R code used to conduct analyses Description of R code The R code is subdivided into the following files: Read_nc.R - Code to read in netCDF files (containing BIOME4 outputs), clean, add area of cells, and convert to .csv Read_footprint.R - Code to cut the HYDE anthrome footprints out of the BIOME4 outputs Matrix_comparison.R - Code calculating the proportion of area changing biomes over time (creates Figure 2a & 3a) Biome_overlap.R - Code calculating the overlap of area attributed to each biome over time (creates Figure 2b & 3b) Unoccupiable_cells.R - Code calculating the proportion of cells attributed to a biome which are not adjacent to that same biome in the previous time slice (creates Figure S5) Biome_share.R - Code showing the change in total area for each biome over time (creates Figure S6 & S7) Centroid_shift.R - Code calculating the latitudinal ranges and centroids for each biome over time (creates Figure S8) Patchiness.R - Code calculating the number of patches of each biome over time (creates Figure S9)

Le réchauffement et l'intensification prévus du cycle hydrologique en Amazonie menacent le fonctionnement de certains des écosystèmes les plus riches en biodiversité de la planète. Les zones humides interfluviales, ou zones humides alimentées directement par les précipitations ou les petits cours d'eau, peuvent être parmi les plus vulnérables aux futurs changements hydroclimatiques. Dans cette étude, nous avons étudié une archive sédimentaire vieille de 7300 ans provenant d'un marais de palmiers des hautes terres dans le parc national de Yasuní (Équateur) pour reconstruire la dynamique de la végétation passée, les conditions paléo-hydroclimatiques et l'histoire humaine en utilisant le pollen, le charbon de bois et l'analyse géochimique. Les données polliniques ont révélé : i) une composition forestière influencée par des conditions sèches il y a 6000 ans, ii) le développement d'un marécage de palmiers il y a 4500 ans, et iii) l'établissement du marécage moderne à canopée fermée Mauriciena flexuosa dominé (moretal) il y a 400 ans. Les données de fluorescence X ont indiqué que les changements dans la composition de la végétation étaient liés aux fluctuations des niveaux d'humidité relative, qui se sont produits de manière concomitante aux événements climatiques régionaux identifiés, en particulier l'événement sec de l'Holocène moyen (MHDE). L'analyse du charbon de bois a révélé une présence continue de feu, bien qu'à des niveaux très faibles, depuis 5000 ans BP, avec des valeurs accrues au cours du dernier millénaire. Nos résultats suggèrent une empreinte des transitions hydroclimatiques de l'Holocène moyen à tardif dans les forêts saisonnières du nord-ouest de l'Amazonie, soulignant la nécessité de mieux comprendre l'écologie à long terme de ces systèmes pour mieux les protéger à la lumière des changements climatiques futurs. El calentamiento y la intensificación proyectados del ciclo hidrológico en toda la Amazonía amenazan el funcionamiento de algunos de los ecosistemas más biodiversos del planeta. Los humedales interfluviales, o humedales alimentados directamente por precipitaciones o pequeños arroyos, pueden ser algunos de los más vulnerables a futuros cambios hidroclimáticos. En este estudio, investigamos un archivo sedimentario de 7300 años de antigüedad de un pantano de palmeras de tierras altas en el Parque Nacional Yasuní (Ecuador) para reconstruir la dinámica de la vegetación pasada, las condiciones paleohidroclimáticas y la historia humana utilizando polen, carbón vegetal y análisis geoquímico. Los datos de polen revelaron: i) una composición forestal influenciada por condiciones secas hace 6000 años, ii) el desarrollo de un pantano de palmeras hace 4500 años, y iii) el establecimiento del moderno pantano dominado por Mauritia flexuosa de dosel cerrado (moretal) hace 400 años. Los datos de fluorescencia de rayos X indicaron que los cambios en la composición de la vegetación estaban relacionados con las fluctuaciones en los niveles relativos de humedad, que ocurrieron coetáneamente a los eventos climáticos regionales identificados, particularmente el Evento Seco del Holoceno Medio (MHDE). El análisis del carbón vegetal reveló la presencia continua de fuego, aunque a niveles muy bajos, desde 5000 años cal BP, con valores aumentados durante el último milenio. Nuestros resultados sugieren una huella de transiciones hidroclimáticas a mediados y finales del Holoceno en los bosques estacionales del noroeste de la Amazonía, destacando la necesidad de comprender mejor la ecología a largo plazo de estos sistemas para protegerlos mejor a la luz del futuro cambio climático. Projected warming and intensification of the hydrological cycle across the Amazon threatens the functioning of some of the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet. Interfluvial wetlands, or wetlands fed directly by precipitation or small streams, may be some of the most vulnerable to future hydroclimatic changes. In this study, we investigated a 7300-year-old sedimentary archive from an upland palm swamp in the Yasuní National Park (Ecuador) to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics, palaeo-hydroclimatic conditions and human history using pollen, charcoal and geochemical analysis. Pollen data revealed: i) a forest composition influenced by dry conditions 6000 years ago, ii) the development of a palm swamp 4500 years ago, and iii) the establishment of the modern closed-canopy Mauritia flexuosa dominated swamp (moretal) 400 years ago. X-ray fluorescence data indicated that changes in vegetation composition were related to fluctuations in relative moisture levels, which occurred coeval to identified regional climatic events, particularly the Mid Holocene Dry Event (MHDE). Analysis of charcoal revealed continuous presence of fire, albeit at very low levels, since 5000 cal yr BP, with increased values during the last millennium. Our results suggest a footprint of hydroclimatic transitions in the mid-to-late Holocene in the aseasonal forests of the northwest Amazon, highlighting the need to better understand the long-term ecology of these systems to better protect them in light of future climatic change. يهدد الاحترار المتوقع وتكثيف الدورة الهيدرولوجية عبر الأمازون عمل بعض النظم الإيكولوجية الأكثر تنوعًا بيولوجيًا على هذا الكوكب. قد تكون الأراضي الرطبة بين الأنهار، أو الأراضي الرطبة التي تغذيها مباشرة الأمطار أو الجداول الصغيرة، من أكثر المناطق عرضة للتغيرات المناخية المائية في المستقبل. في هذه الدراسة، قمنا بالتحقيق في أرشيف رسوبي عمره 7300 عام من مستنقع نخيل مرتفع في حديقة ياسوني الوطنية (الإكوادور) لإعادة بناء ديناميكيات الغطاء النباتي السابقة والظروف المائية القديمة والتاريخ البشري باستخدام حبوب اللقاح والفحم والتحليل الجيوكيميائي. كشفت بيانات حبوب اللقاح: 1) تركيبة غابة متأثرة بالظروف الجافة قبل 6000 عام، 2) تطور مستنقع النخيل قبل 4500 عام، و 3) إنشاء مستنقع موريشيوس فليكسوسا المغلق الحديث (Moretal) قبل 400 عام. أشارت بيانات فلورة الأشعة السينية إلى أن التغيرات في تكوين الغطاء النباتي كانت مرتبطة بالتقلبات في مستويات الرطوبة النسبية، والتي حدثت بالتزامن مع الأحداث المناخية الإقليمية المحددة، لا سيما حدث منتصف الهولوسين الجاف (MHDE). كشف تحليل الفحم عن وجود مستمر للنار، وإن كان بمستويات منخفضة جدًا، منذ 5000 سعر حراري في السنة، مع زيادة القيم خلال الألفية الماضية. تشير نتائجنا إلى وجود بصمة للتحولات المناخية المائية في عصر الهولوسين من منتصف إلى أواخر في الغابات الموسمية في شمال غرب الأمازون، مما يسلط الضوء على الحاجة إلى فهم أفضل للبيئة طويلة الأجل لهذه الأنظمة لحمايتها بشكل أفضل في ضوء التغير المناخي في المستقبل.

AbstractDrawing on collective experience from ten collaborative research projects focused on the Global South, we identify three major challenges that impede the translation of research on sustainability and resilience into better-informed choices by individuals and policy-makers that in turn can support transformation to a sustainable future. The three challenges comprise: (i) converting knowledge produced during research projects into successful knowledge application; (ii) scaling up knowledge in time when research projects are short-term and potential impacts are long-term; and (iii) scaling up knowledge across space, from local research sites to larger-scale or even global impact. Some potential pathways for funding agencies to overcome these challenges include providing targeted prolonged funding for dissemination and outreach, and facilitating collaboration and coordination across different sites, research teams, and partner organizations. By systematically documenting these challenges, we hope to pave the way for further innovations in the research cycle.

Land cover has been modified by anthropogenic activities for thousands of years, although the speed of change has increased in recent decades, particularly driven by socio-economic development. The development of transport infrastructure can accelerate land use land cover change, resulting in impacts on natural resources such as water, biodiversity, and food production. To understand the interaction between land cover and social–ecological drivers, changing land cover patterns and drivers of change must be identified and quantified. This study documents land cover dynamics along the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) corridor in Kenya and evaluates the underlying drivers of this change from 2000 to 2019. The study utilised GIS and remote sensing techniques to assess the land use and land cover changes along the SGR corridor, while correlational and regression analyses were used to evaluate various drivers of the changes. Results showed that built-up areas, bare lands, water bodies, croplands and forests increased by 144.39%, 74.73%, 74.42%, 9.32% and 4.85%, respectively, while wetlands, grasslands and shrub lands reduced by 98.54%, 67.00% and 33.86%, respectively. The underlying drivers responsible for these land use and land cover dynamics are population growth, urbanisation, economic growth and agro-ecological factors. Such land cover changes affect environmental sustainability, and we stress the need to adequately identify and address the cumulative social and environmental impacts of mega-infrastructure projects and their interacting investments. The findings of this study provide an evidence base for the evaluation of the social–ecological impacts of the SGR and the implementation of best practices that will lead to enhanced sustainability in the development corridors in Kenya and beyond.

Monitoring landscape carbon storage is critical for supporting and validating climate change mitigation policies. These may be aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, or increasing terrestrial carbon storage at local, regional and global levels. However, due to data-deficiencies, default global carbon storage values for given land cover types such as 'lowland tropical forest' are often used, termed 'Tier 1 type' analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such estimates may be erroneous when used at regional scales. Furthermore uncertainty assessments are rarely provided leading to estimates of land cover change carbon fluxes of unknown precision which may undermine efforts to properly evaluate land cover policies aimed at altering land cover dynamics. Here, we present a repeatable method to estimate carbon storage values and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all five IPCC carbon pools (aboveground live carbon, litter, coarse woody debris, belowground live carbon and soil carbon) for data-deficient regions, using a combination of existing inventory data and systematic literature searches, weighted to ensure the final values are regionally specific. The method meets the IPCC 'Tier 2' reporting standard. We use this method to estimate carbon storage over an area of33.9 million hectares of eastern Tanzania, reporting values for 30 land cover types. We estimate that this area stored 6.33 (5.92-6.74) Pg C in the year 2000. Carbon storage estimates for the same study area extracted from five published Africa-wide or global studies show a mean carbon storage value of ∼50% of that reported using our regional values, with four of the five studies reporting lower carbon storage values. This suggests that carbon storage may have been underestimated for this region of Africa. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining regionally appropriate carbon storage estimates, and shows how such values can be produced for a relatively low investment.