• Energy Research

In many organisms, rapidly changing environmental conditions are inducing dramatic shifts in diverse phenotypic traits with consequences for fitness and population viability. However, the mechanisms that underlie these responses remain poorly understood. Endocrine signalling systems often influence suites of traits and are sensitive to changes in environmental conditions; they are thus ideal candidates for uncovering both plastic and evolved consequences of climate change. Here, we use body size and shape, a set of integrated traits predicted to shift in response to rising temperatures with effects on fitness, and insulin-like growth factor-1 as a case study to explore these ideas. We review what is known about changes in body size and shape in response to rising temperatures and then illustrate why endocrine signalling systems are likely to be critical in mediating these effects. Lastly, we discuss research approaches that will advance understanding of the processes that underlie rapid responses to climate change and the role endocrine systems will have. Knowledge of the mechanisms involved in phenotypic responses to climate change will be essential for predicting both the ecological and the long-term evolutionary consequences of a warming climate. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Endocrine responses to environmental variation: conceptual approaches and recent developments’.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Limited evidence suggests that variation in phenotypic plasticity within populations may arise largely from environmental sources, thereby constraining its evolvability. This is of concern for temperature-sensitive metabolism in the face of climate change. We quantified the relative influence of the developmental environment versus genes on the metabolic plasticity of avian embryos to temperature. We partially cross-fostered 602 house sparrow eggs ( Passer domesticus ), measured the heart rate plasticity of these embryos to egg temperature and partitioned variance in plasticity. We found that the foster (incubation) environment was the sole meaningful source of variance in embryonic plasticity (not genes, pre-laying effects or ambient conditions). In contrast to heart rate plasticity, offspring growth was influenced by the foster environment, genes/pre-laying parental effects and ambient conditions. Although embryonic plasticity to temperature varied in this population, these results suggest that it is unlikely to evolve quickly. Nevertheless, the expression of this plasticity may be able to shift between generations in response to changes in the developmental environment. Whether the multidimensional plasticity of heart rate to both current temperature and the developmental environment is itself an adaptive, evolved trait allowing avian embryos to optimize their metabolic plasticity to their current environment remains to be tested.