• Energy Research

Abstract Ectothermic species are strongly affected by thermal changes. To assess the viability of these species under climate change constraints, we need to quantify the sensitivity of their life history traits to temperature. The loggerhead marine turtle (Caretta caretta) nests regularly in the Oriental Basin of the Mediterranean Sea. The different populations are separated because of time (< 12,000 yrs) and very different thermal habitats; it is hotter on the southern coast (Libya) than on the northern ones (Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey). Patterns of embryo growth response to incubation temperatures have been searched for these 2 populations. We found that both populations have similar thermal reaction norms for embryonic growth rate. This highlights that 12,000 yrs is not enough time for this species to adapt to specific thermal habitats and raises the question of the persistence of these populations in the context of rapid climate change.

Samandag Beach, an important nesting location for endangered green turtles (Chelonia mydas), is located at the most eastern part of the Mediterranean in Turkey. Hatchling sex ratio can be one of the key factors for green turtle protection, which is under the threat of global climate change. In this study, sex ratios of hatchlings were estimated by histological examination of dead hatchlings (n = 190) and by nest temperatures (n = 14) at Samandag Beach between the 2003 and 2007 nesting seasons. The histological examination of dead C. mydas hatchlings and temperature-recorded nests indicated a female-biased sex ratio on Samandag Beach. By histological examination, top and bottom levels of nests were recorded as 94% and 64% of females. Sex ratios during the middle third of the incubation period ranged from 39% to 97% for females with a mean of 74%. Distance from the sea was correlated with the middle third of incubation temperature (r = -0.604, P = 0.022) and female ratio (r = -0.573, P = 0.032). While nest temperatures and nest parameters such as hatching success, clutch size, nest distance from the sea and from vegetation, nest depth, and the day of emergence were not found significantly different among years (P > 0.05), incubation duration was found significantly different among years (P < 0.05). The results showed a female-dominated sex ratio by both histology and nest temperature. The knowledge of hatchling sex ratios provides information on demographic parameters, and coupled with appropriate conservation measures this can make important contributions to studies of climate change effects on green sea turtle populations.

As climate-related impacts threaten marine biodiversity globally, it is important to adjust conservation efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. Translating scientific knowledge into practical management, however, is often complicated due to resource, economic and policy constraints, generating a knowledge-action gap. To develop potential solutions for marine turtle conservation, we explored the perceptions of key actors across 18 countries in the Mediterranean. These actors evaluated their perceived relative importance of 19 adaptation and mitigation measures that could safeguard marine turtles from climate change. Of importance, despite differences in expertise, experience and focal country, the perceptions of researchers and management practitioners largely converged with respect to prioritizing adaptation and mitigation measures. Climate change was considered to have the greatest impacts on offspring sex ratios and suitable nesting sites. The most viable adaptation/mitigation measures were considered to be reducing other pressures that act in parallel to climate change. Ecological effectiveness represented a key determinant for implementing proposed measures, followed by practical applicability, financial cost, and societal cost. This convergence in opinions across actors likely reflects long-standing initiatives in the Mediterranean region towards supporting knowledge exchange in marine turtle conservation. Our results provide important guidance on how to prioritize measures that incorporate climate change in decision-making processes related to the current and future management and protection of marine turtles at the ocean-basin scale, and could be used to guide decisions in other regions globally. Importantly, this study demonstrates a successful example of how interactive processes can be used to fill the knowledge-action gap between research and management.

While climate change is now fully recognised as a reality, its impact on biodiversity is still not completely understood. To predict its impact, proxies coherent with the studied ecosystem or species are thus required. Marine turtles are threatened worldwide (though some populations are recovering) as they are particularly sensitive to temperature throughout their entire life cycle. This is especially true at the embryo stage when temperature affects both growth rates and sex determination. Nest temperature is thus of prime importance to understand the persistence of populations in the context of climate change. We analysed the nest temperature of 21 loggerheads (Caretta caretta) originating from Dalyan Beach in Turkey using day-lagged generalised mixed models with autocorrelation. Surprisingly, the selected model for nest temperature includes an effect for sea surface temperature 4-times higher than for air temperature. We also detected a very significant effect of metabolic heating during development compatible with what is already known about marine turtle nests. Our new methodology allows the prediction of marine turtle nest temperatures with good precision based on a combination of air temperature measured at beach level and sea surface temperature in front of the beach. These data are available in public databases for most of the beaches worldwide.

Abstract Phenological shifts, by initiating reproductive events earlier, in response to advanced seasonal warming is one of the most striking effects currently observed in wild populations. For sea turtles, phenological adjustment to warming conditions could be the most effective short-term adaptation option against climate change. We calculated future phenological changes required in seven important loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting populations to continue achieving a high hatching success and a sex ratio that lies within current ranges. Considering temperature-mediated phenological changes, we found that most populations (six out of seven) will not be able to keep pace with a warming climate. Under an optimistic climate warming scenario (RCP4.5), these populations will face a climatic debt, that is, a difference between required and expected phenological changes, and warming will substantially reduce hatching success and induce a feminization of hatchlings, which may jeopardize their reproductive sustainability. Our approach offers the possibility to quantify the efficiency of phenological shifts in oviparous reptiles by considering physiological, developmental and phenological processes.

AbstractSea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a “middle of the road” scenario (SSP2‐4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26–43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present‐day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from −20 to −191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.