• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to -6% (SSP126) and from +1% to -24% (SSP585)-explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The 'emergence' of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections-before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

Abstract. West African Sahelian and Sudanian ecosystems provide essential services to people and also play a significant role within the global carbon cycle. However, climate and land use are dynamically changing, and uncertainty remains with respect to how these changes will affect the potential of these regions to provide food and fodder resources or how they will affect the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of CO2. In this study, we investigate the capacity of a process-based biogeochemical model, LandscapeDNDC, to simulate net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and aboveground biomass of typical managed and natural Sahelian and Sudanian savanna ecosystems. In order to improve the simulation of phenology, we introduced soil-water availability as a common driver of foliage development and productivity for all of these systems. The new approach was tested by using a sample of sites (calibration sites) that provided NEE from flux tower observations as well as leaf area index data from satellite images (MODIS, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). For assessing the simulation accuracy, we applied the calibrated model to 42 additional sites (validation sites) across West Africa for which measured aboveground biomass data were available. The model showed good performance regarding biomass of crops, grass, or trees, yielding correlation coefficients of 0.82, 0.94, and 0.77 and root-mean-square errors of 0.15, 0.22, and 0.12 kg m−2, respectively. The simulations indicate aboveground carbon stocks of up to 0.17, 0.33, and 0.54 kg C ha−1 m−2 for agricultural, savanna grasslands, and savanna mixed tree–grassland sites, respectively. Carbon stocks and exchange rates were particularly correlated with the abundance of trees, and grass biomass and crop yields were higher under more humid climatic conditions. Our study shows the capability of LandscapeDNDC to accurately simulate carbon balances in natural and agricultural ecosystems in semiarid West Africa under a wide range of conditions; thus, the model could be used to assess the impact of land-use and climate change on the regional biomass productivity.

Abstract Rainfall and irrigation trigger large pulses of the powerful greenhouse gas N2O from intensively managed pastures, produced via multiple, simultaneously occurring pathways. These N2O pulses can account for a large fraction of total N2O losses, demonstrating the importance to determine magnitude and source partitioning of N2O under these conditions. This study investigated the response of different pathways of N2O production to wetting across three different textured pasture soils. Soil microcosms were fertilised with an ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) solution which was either single or double 15N labelled, wetted to four different water-filled pore space (WFPS) levels, and incubated over two days. The use of a 15N pool mixing model together with soil N gross transformations enabled the attribution of N2O to specific pathways, and to express N2O emissions as a fraction of the underlying N transformation. Denitrification and nitrification mediated pathways contributed to the production of N2O in all soils, regardless of WFPS. Denitrification was the main pathway of N2O production accounting for >50% of cumulative N2O emissions even at low WFPS. The contribution of autotrophic nitrification to N2O emissions decreased with the amount of wetting, while the contribution of heterotrophic nitrification remained stable or increased. Following the hole-in-the-pipe model, 0.1%–4% of nitrified N was lost as N2O, increasing exponentially with WFPS, while the percentage of denitrified N emitted as N2O decreased, providing critical information for the representation of N2O/WFPS relationships in simulation models. Our findings demonstrate that the wetting of pasture soils promotes N2O production via denitrification and via the oxidation of organic N substrates driven by high carbon and N availability upon wetting. The large contribution of heterotrophic nitrification to N2O emissions should be considered when developing N2O abatement strategies, seeking to reduce N2O emissions in response to rainfall and irrigation from intensively managed pastures.

AbstractDenitrification is a key process in the global nitrogen (N) cycle, causing both nitrous oxide (N2O) and dinitrogen (N2) emissions. However, estimates of seasonal denitrification losses (N2O + N2) are scarce, reflecting methodological difficulties in measuring soil‐borne N2 emissions against the high atmospheric N2 background and challenges regarding their spatio‐temporal upscaling. This study investigated N2O + N2 losses in response to N fertilizer rates (0, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1) on two intensively managed tropical sugarcane farms in Australia, by combining automated N2O monitoring, in situ N2 and N2O measurements using the 15N gas flux method and fertilizer 15N recoveries at harvest. Dynamic changes in the N2O/(N2O + N2) ratio (<0.01 to 0.768) were explained by fitting generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) with soil factors to upscale high temporal‐resolution N2O data to daily N2 emissions over the season. Cumulative N2O + N2 losses ranged from 12 to 87 kg N ha−1, increasing non‐linearly with increasing N fertilizer rates. Emissions of N2O + N2 accounted for 31%–78% of fertilizer 15N losses and were dominated by environmentally benign N2 emissions. The contribution of denitrification to N fertilizer loss decreased with increasing N rates, suggesting increasing significance of other N loss pathways including leaching and runoff at higher N rates. This study delivers a blueprint approach to extrapolate denitrification measurements at both temporal and spatial scales, which can be applied in fertilized agroecosystems. Robust estimates of denitrification losses determined using this method will help to improve cropping system modeling approaches, advancing our understanding of the N cycle across scales.

Application of nitrogen (N) fertiliser is vital to the productivity of grains production systems. However, losses can result in negative environmental impacts as well as having a significant impact on farmer profitability. Such losses can vary significantly, therefore it is important to benchmark nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) across a range of environments to better understand opportunities for improvement. Using a combination of 15 N mass balance and monitoring for gaseous N 2 O flux we undertook an assessment of NUE at 29 sites spread across a range of management systems in semi-arid and temperate environments of south eastern Australia. An N rate experiment was established at each site, testing three different in-season application rates with N surface applied as urea. Timing and rates were determined in relation to farmer practice for the broader paddock. Loss of fertiliser N averaged 29% (ranging from 5 to 54%) and while daily N 2 O flux rates represented a fraction of this, peak flux rates ranged from 52 to 132 to 376 g N 2 O-N/ha/day across low/ medium rainfall, high rainfall and irrigated regions respectively. Crop recovery of applied N ranged from 3 to 65% and was positively correlated with agronomic efficiency of N application.

AbstractIn sugarcane cropping systems, high rates of N fertiliser are typically applied as sub-surface bands creating localised zones of high mineral N concentrations. This in combination with high levels of crop residue (trash) retention and a warm and humid climate creates conditions that are known to promote soil denitrification, resulting in high emissions of the potent greenhouse gas N2O. These losses illustrate inefficient use of N fertilisers but total denitrification losses in the form of N2 and N2O remain largely unknown. We used the 15N gas flux method to investigate the effect of cane trash removal and the use of the nitrification inhibitor 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on N2 and N2O emissions on a commercial sugarcane farm at Bundaberg, Australia. High gaseous N losses were observed under the standard grower practice where cane trash retention and N fertiliser application (145 kg N ha−1 as urea) resulted in N2 and N2O emissions (36.1 kg N ha−1) from the subsurface N fertiliser band, with more than 50% of these losses emitted as N2O. Cane trash removal reduced N2 emission by 34% and N2O emission by 51%, but had no effect on the N2O/(N2 + N2O) ratio. The use of DMPP lowered N2 and N2O emission by 35% and 98%, respectively, reducing the percentage of these losses (N2 + N2O) emitted as N2O to only 4%. We conclude that the use of DMPP is an effective strategy to reduce N losses, minimise N2O emissions, while keeping the benefits of cane trash retention in sugarcane cropping systems.